Exhibit A: Why the Lottery System Needs to be Changed

[SpikeDDS]

My fellow HFers will back me up that I have been saying FOR YEARS that the lottery system is FAR too unkind to the worst team(s). I was saying it long before we were near (or AT) the bottom.

 

But if there is a draft lottery that is a shining example that I have been right, it is this one!

 

You wanna see tanking? Wait until a team goes down 0-2 in their qualifier series and watch what happens. Lose for a decent chance at Frenchie! That’s just wrong!

 

You know what else is wrong? That the worst team is only guaranteed 4th. And lookee here! We are missing the top 3, which seem to be gapped from the next echelon of prospects. This is wrong!

 

i realize by saying this it is self-serving. And if I hadn’t been saying this FOR YEARS, that would be legit. But I have been saying it: That less than a 1/5 chance for the first pick for the worst team is just wrong. It shouldn’t be a coin flip, but it should be greater than 18.5%. Significantly greater. 25-30% sounds about right.

 

And if they lose, they shouldn’t go down beyond #3.

 

i really think the bottom 5-7 teams should be in the running for the first pick. You can add the others for the second, but give the teams that need the most help the most help, even if it is in a different order.

 

I saw that Brian Burke commented and seems to agree with me. I’ll bet he’s not alone as far as GMs go.

 

The fact that a team like Edmonton could end up with that first pick and the Wings get 4th? There’s no better word for that than disgusting! The NHL needs to eliminate the possibility of “disgusting” happening with their lottery.

Edited June 29, 2020 by SpikeDDS

[JR Ewing]

@SpikeDDS

 

I agree completely. It's not right. Edmonton was in solid playoff position but could get bounced in a short series after not playing for months and somehow wind up getting a franchise player out of the deal. I imagine that this was a concession made to the play-in teams for having to play against clubs that probably wouldn't qualified for the playoffs if things hadn't gone as they had with Covid.

 

As ever, life is often not fair at all.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 29, 2020 by JR Ewing

[flyercanuck]

 This draft is an anomaly.

 

 The lottery may not stop the Pittsburghs/Buffalos/Torontos from tanking...but at least the end result isn't a sure thing. 

[WordsOfWisdom]

This thread was predictable. Got a chuckle when I saw it this morning.   

 

One thing has become abundantly clear (that I believe needs to change)..... nobody owes you a #1 draft pick for losing. 

 

This mentality of: "We lost 60 games this year therefore the world OWES US a franchise player so we can win again" has to stop. You don't get rewarded for losing in life, and you shouldn't get rewarded for losing in pro sports. The league doesn't owe it to you to lift you up when you fall down. You need to pick yourself back up and change your team's fortunes through good decision making, not a hand-out. 

 

The NHL's draft model is already so heavily skewed towards the lame duck teams that it's unfair. I've said many times that the draft system the league should use is either full random selection (1-32) or put all the non-playoff teams in the draft for the #1 pick with equal odds of winning and then everyone else is in from #2 onward. 

 

Tanking is a far bigger problem in pro sports because it destroys the integrity of the game. The league should just wipe it out completely by implementing one of the draft systems I've proposed above.  

[SpikeDDS]

11 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

This thread was predictable. Got a chuckle when I saw it this morning.   

 

One thing has become abundantly clear (that I believe needs to change)..... nobody owes you a #1 draft pick for losing. 

 

This mentality of: "We lost 60 games this year therefore the world OWES US a franchise player so we can win again" has to stop. You don't get rewarded for losing in life, and you shouldn't get rewarded for losing in pro sports. The league doesn't owe it to you to lift you up when you fall down. You need to pick yourself back up and change your team's fortunes through good decision making, not a hand-out. 

 

The NHL's draft model is already so heavily skewed towards the lame duck teams that it's unfair. I've said many times that the draft system the league should use is either full random selection (1-32) or put all the non-playoff teams in the draft for the #1 pick with equal odds of winning and then everyone else is in from #2 onward. 

 

Tanking is a far bigger problem in pro sports because it destroys the integrity of the game. The league should just wipe it out completely by implementing one of the draft systems I've proposed above.  

Show me one place EVER when I suggested that the worst team should be given the #1 pick.

 

Show me one place EVER where I have said that a losing team should be awarded a franchise player.

 

I’ll wait...

 

Do I think the worst teams should be the ones in the lottery for the first couple of picks in the draft? Yes I do. I am going to disagree with you on that, as does EVERY SINGLE PROFESSIONAL TEAM SPORTS LEAGUE. Name one that agrees with you.

 

I’ll wait...

 

Here’s the logic for you: If you are going to try to have a competitive team sports league, trying to get away from one team dominating over and over, you balance it by giving worse teams the opportunity to select the best talent as they see it. Just because you get the top pick guarantees you NOTHING! Which is why this still works. It might be different if the top pick guaranteed you winning. It doesn’t. 

 

Tanking may suck—we agree on that, at least—but an uncompetitive league sucks worse. And most everyone seems to get that.

 

But there are exceptions, I suppose. And apparently you are one of them.

 

I’ll just be over here with everyone else.

[WordsOfWisdom]

3 hours ago, SpikeDDS said:

Show me one place EVER when I suggested that the worst team should be given the #1 pick.

 

Show me one place EVER where I have said that a losing team should be awarded a franchise player.

 

I’ll wait...

 

You seem to imply it right here:

 

On 6/28/2020 at 9:49 PM, SpikeDDS said:

You know what else is wrong? That the worst team is only guaranteed 4th. And lookee here! We are missing the top 3, which seem to be gapped from the next echelon of prospects. This is wrong!

 

On 6/28/2020 at 9:49 PM, SpikeDDS said:

i realize by saying this it is self-serving. And if I hadn’t been saying this FOR YEARS, that would be legit. But I have been saying it: That less than a 1/5 chance for the first pick for the worst team is just wrong. It shouldn’t be a coin flip, but it should be greater than 18.5%. Significantly greater. 25-30% sounds about right.

 

On 6/28/2020 at 9:49 PM, SpikeDDS said:

And if they lose, they shouldn’t go down beyond #3.

 

 

So what you're saying is:  "The last place team deserves a guaranteed, slam dunk, top 3, impact/franchise player in the draft."

 

You want no less than 3rd, so that's likely a future franchise player. You want 30% odds of winning #1 (which is enormous) and then the safety net of getting #2 or #3 should the 30% probability fail to go your way.  

 

 

3 hours ago, SpikeDDS said:

Do I think the worst teams should be the ones in the lottery for the first couple of picks in the draft? Yes I do. I am going to disagree with you on that, as does EVERY SINGLE PROFESSIONAL TEAM SPORTS LEAGUE. Name one that agrees with you.

 

Why don't we just implement a system where the Stanley Cup winning team has to give their entire roster to the last place team?   

 

I'm happy to be the one guy who thinks the world is round if everyone else thinks it's flat. The popularity of an opinion is something I give no weight to whatsoever. If every sports league did things one way, I'd be the one sports league commissioner doing it differently. Everyone would be watching my league because I'd be the outlier.   

 

You can adjust the system somewhat and have non-playoff teams pick #1,2,3..... and then bring the rest of the teams in. That's fine. It can be adjusted/tinkered with.  My point is that the league needs to move away from their fetish with %'s and just put 16 balls into the machine and pull out draft pick #1, 2, 3 from those non-playoff teams. After that, the remaining balls go in and we draw 4-32. It's so easy to implement compared to what the NHL does now. It eliminates tanking 100% and it's the most fair system to everyone involved. 

 

 

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

3 hours ago, SpikeDDS said:

Here’s the logic for you: If you are going to try to have a competitive team sports league, trying to get away from one team dominating over and over, you balance it by giving worse teams the opportunity to select the best talent as they see it. Just because you get the top pick guarantees you NOTHING! Which is why this still works. It might be different if the top pick guaranteed you winning. It doesn’t. 

 

This is a non-issue in the NHL. There's no one team that dominates over and over.  Dynasty teams can barely win back-to-back Cups these days.   

 

However, there is a real issue with bottom teams trying to "bottom out" near the end of the season to gain a few extra percentage points in their odds to get #1. If it's the last game of the season and you're tied in points with the second last place team, who would go out and try to win that final game? Both teams would throw the game in an effort to finish last.

 

So if that one final game happens to be Detroit vs Toronto, while Florida plays their final game against Boston.... guess who gets a playoff spot? Toronto would pound Detroit 7-1..... because the Wings would throw the game. 

 

3 hours ago, SpikeDDS said:

Tanking may suck—we agree on that, at least—but an uncompetitive league sucks worse. And most everyone seems to get that.

 

But there are exceptions, I suppose. And apparently you are one of them.

 

I’ll just be over here with everyone else.

 

The NHL has a salary cap. The NHL gives the #1 draft pick to one of the last place teams every year. It may not be THE last place team, but it's always one of the very bottom teams. The NHL couldn't possibly do anything more to castrate elite teams and spoon feed the bottom teams other than just swapping rosters. 

 

It's not that "tanking sucks"..... it's that tanking is akin to allowing players to place bets on the winning teams and then throw games. Tanking is to pro sports what fight fixing is to boxing.     

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 6/29/2020 at 9:50 AM, flyercanuck said:

 This draft is an anomaly.

 

 The lottery may not stop the Pittsburghs/Buffalos/Torontos from tanking...but at least the end result isn't a sure thing. 

 

No matter what the NHL sets the percentage to, fans of the last place team are always going to feel ripped off when the lottery doesn't go their way and they fail to land that #1 pick when the opportunity arises.

 

Also, Toronto wasn't tanking. That was their first rebuild (lolol) after years and years of spending to the cap with aging players to finish 9th.    (I mean they were a bottom team for 10 years. When you're the 17th-30th best team in the NHL for a decade, you're virtually guaranteed to land a #1 draft pick at some point. It's a almost a statistical certainty.)

 

I think of all the #1 draft picks the Leafs missed out on because they stubbornly refused to rebuild until recently and/or traded away those picks to other teams (Tyler Seguin and what's-his-name the defenceman for example). 

Edited June 30, 2020 by WordsOfWisdom

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

No matter what the NHL sets the percentage to, fans of the last place team are always going to feel ripped off when the lottery doesn't go their way and they fail to land that #1 pick when the opportunity arises.

 

Also, Toronto wasn't tanking. That was their first rebuild (lolol) after years and years of spending to the cap with aging players to finish 9th.    (I mean they were a bottom team for 10 years. When you're the 17th-30th best team in the NHL for a decade, you're virtually guaranteed to land a #1 draft pick at some point. It's a almost a statistical certainty.)

 

I think of all the #1 draft picks the Leafs missed out on because they stubbornly refused to rebuild until recently and/or traded away those picks to other teams (Tyler Seguin and what's-his-name the defenceman for example). 

 

Man it would SUCK if the Penguins were to win this number one overall pick....

Edited June 30, 2020 by OccamsRazor
I can't type today...

[flyercanuck]

6 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

No matter what the NHL sets the percentage to, fans of the last place team are always going to feel ripped off when the lottery doesn't go their way and they fail to land that #1 pick when the opportunity arises.

 

 Of course. Hey we watched Chicago get Kane the only time the Flyers ever came close to being the worst team in the league...3 cups later I STILL hate JVR and his "I can't be bothered trying" attitude. Redux.

 

6 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Also, Toronto wasn't tanking. That was their first rebuild (lolol) after years and years of spending to the cap with aging players to finish 9th.    (I mean they were a bottom team for 10 years. When you're the 17th-30th best team in the NHL for a decade, you're virtually guaranteed to land a #1 draft pick at some point. It's a almost a statistical certainty.)

 

 Ok they weren't tanking...they just traded away their captain, their best goal scorer, their #1 goalie and a bunch of other veterans...for a cup run?

 

6 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I think of all the #1 draft picks the Leafs missed out on because they stubbornly refused to rebuild until recently and/or traded away those picks to other teams (Tyler Seguin and what's-his-name the defenceman for example). 

 

 Sure they missed plenty. They missed out on a lot of good players after the 1st overall too. Cause their management was deploreable for decades. Going all the way back to "we don't need Bobby Orr we have plenty of defensive prospects" days.

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Of course. Hey we watched Chicago get Kane the only time the Flyers ever came close to being the worst team in the league...3 cups later I STILL hate JVR and his "I can't be bothered trying" attitude. Redux.

 

 

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Ok they weren't tanking...they just traded away their captain, their best goal scorer, their #1 goalie and a bunch of other veterans...for a cup run?

 

That's the very definition of a rebuild.  

 

You dump every veteran player of value for prospects and start over. That's what the Leafs finally did. Toronto had never done a rebuild in franchise history prior to the rebuild that landed the current group of players. All they would ever do (historically) is keep grabbing 35 year old+ free agents to plug holes on a sinking ship and keep 9th place (in the conference) alive.  

 

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

Sure they missed plenty. They missed out on a lot of good players after the 1st overall too. Cause their management was deploreable for decades. Going all the way back to "we don't need Bobby Orr we have plenty of defensive prospects" days.

 

[CreaseAndAssist]

If a perennially mediocre team like the Wild has a shot at getting #1 overall by losing their play-in series?!?  Great, I'm all for it even if its just to have a 12.5% chance at it.  I'm tired of picking in the early to mid-teens and getting some player who might be able to be a contributor on the 3rd or 2nd line if we're lucky.  

 

Is the lottery messed up?  No, it turned out like a lottery as it isn't going to the most deserving.  It's just how the ping pong balls turned out as improbable as it was going to be.    

[flyer4ever]

On 6/29/2020 at 10:35 AM, WordsOfWisdom said:

This thread was predictable. Got a chuckle when I saw it this morning.   

 

One thing has become abundantly clear (that I believe needs to change)..... nobody owes you a #1 draft pick for losing. 

 

This mentality of: "We lost 60 games this year therefore the world OWES US a franchise player so we can win again" has to stop. You don't get rewarded for losing in life, and you shouldn't get rewarded for losing in pro sports. The league doesn't owe it to you to lift you up when you fall down. You need to pick yourself back up and change your team's fortunes through good decision making, not a hand-out. 

 

The NHL's draft model is already so heavily skewed towards the lame duck teams that it's unfair. I've said many times that the draft system the league should use is either full random selection (1-32) or put all the non-playoff teams in the draft for the #1 pick with equal odds of winning and then everyone else is in from #2 onward. 

 

Tanking is a far bigger problem in pro sports because it destroys the integrity of the game. The league should just wipe it out completely by implementing one of the draft systems I've proposed above.  

This is a good chuckle too. You have been trying really hard to get a date with Austin covid Matthews, your beloved Leafs went way beyond tanking to get him, yet you would be okay with getting Jesse Pulljarvi out of that draft. Give us all a break.

[WordsOfWisdom]

20 hours ago, flyer4ever said:

This is a good chuckle too. You have been trying really hard to get a date with Austin covid Matthews, your beloved Leafs went way beyond tanking to get him, yet you would be okay with getting Jesse Pulljarvi out of that draft. Give us all a break.

 

The Leafs did a REBUILD.  You probably didn't recognize it because it's the first time they've ever done one!

 

They were already a bad team and once they began their rebuild they sank to the bottom, exactly as expected. Name one NHL team that did a full rebuild and kept winning with a rookie roster. 

 

The NHL doesn't owe last place teams anything. It's not the NHL's job to fix poor management decisions by that team's GM.  The Leafs got Matthews because they rebuilt and had the best odds of winning. Had they missed on Auston Matthews, them staying at the bottom probably would have landed them Connor McDavid instead.  Think about that. Look how many #1 picks Edmonton has had by being a terrible team. 

 

If you want to redefine the word tanking to be "rebuilding", that's fine. Then every team in the NHL goes through a period of "tanking" where they trade away aging veterans, acquire draft picks, and give the rookies a chance. 

 

 

 

 

[Math]

If the perfect system existed, they would have implemented it already. The problem of tanking had to be solved in some way, and maybe the odds are still not assigned in an equal way. I read somewhere an interesting idea:

 

After the regular season, non-qualified teams play something like a tournament (round-robin, bracket format or whatever), which leads to a ranking amongst those. The winner gets the #1 pick, the finalist the #2, the 3rd team the #3, etc. The advantage: the season is not over for non-playoff teams (= more money) and the highest picks are rewarded to "winners" I'd say.

 

Problem, The League will certainly come with some stupid format and tricks such as eye-blinded shootout or 2 vs. 2 on one side of the ice rink with a neutral goalie (like 3-3 street basketball).

[WordsOfWisdom]

On 7/9/2020 at 10:51 AM, Villette/Lavaux said:

If the perfect system existed, they would have implemented it already.

 

If by perfect you mean a system that everyone likes then no such system is possible.

 

Every team has selfish interests. They will always vote for the system that is most advantageous to their franchise at the current moment, regardless of what makes the most sense, what is the most fair, and regardless of the impact to the other franchises. 

 

So if you asked the Detroit Red Wings right now, they would vote for a system that gives the last place team the #1 overall pick guaranteed. Those same Detroit Red Wings 10 years from now (if they win a President's trophy again) will vote for a draft system that gives the President's trophy winning team the #1 overall draft pick.

 

The best you can do is implement a system that is mathematically fair as I've suggested, because mathematical fairness supersedes any sense of personal self-motivated "fairness".

 

On 7/9/2020 at 10:51 AM, Villette/Lavaux said:

After the regular season, non-qualified teams play something like a tournament

 

That takes focus away from the Stanley Cup playoffs, where the focus rightly belongs. Would never fly.

 

The suggestion has been made to start counting points after a team has been eliminated from the playoffs. Most points after elimination determines draft position. The teams that are eliminated first start accumulating draft points first. Although it could potentially be exploited by teams who tank/crash early to start accumulating draft points before anyone else can. My suggestion of full random selection among non-playoff teams is still the best option. Nobody has ever come up with anything better than that.

 

However, since fans seem to want predictability (sure things).... perhaps the #1 draft pick should just be given in a round-robin fashion, regardless of the standings, so teams can plan around it. Every 32 years your franchise will get the #1 pick guaranteed and you can plan for it because you'll know exactly what year it will happen. If it happens to be a bad draft year, the league can compensate the team with a higher pick the next year until the team and fans are satisfied that they've hit on a winner. So we can take all sense of luck and failure out of the equation and force teams to pick good players. (Sarcasm lol.)