Time to Trade Giroux?

[vis]

@csummers

 

Does declining performance over the past three years give you much faith that he will regain $8.0/year performance?  Again, it's not a one year phenomenon.  I don't know why you keep saying that.

 

And, yes I think continuity is important.  You need to build and maintain an identity.  But I don't think you can retool or whatever they want to call it.  I think you're more apt to remain a middling team, rather than a team with a legitimate chance year after year.  If you're going to rebuild, I think you have to go all-in.  And that means evaluating everyone on your roster.  There can be no sacred cows.  That's all, I think, the "trade Giroux" crowd are saying.  It's something to consider, not something that must be done.  If it may help you in the long run, why not consider it?

 

28 minutes ago, csummers said:

Could be worse, could have stamkos. But you would be calling for him to be traded too so it wouldnt matter. You would just find the best players, and blame them. 

Right...that's exactly what I'm advocating...

[mojo1917]

2 hours ago, vis said:

 

@csummers

 

Does declining performance over the past three years give you much faith that he will regain $8.0/year performance?  Again, it's not a one year phenomenon.  I don't know why you keep saying that.

 

 

28's production has been declining, but not falling off a cliff like this past year.

since his 93 point statistical outlying season there was a lockout where he accounted for 48 points which maybe projects out to 80-75 in a full season, then 83, 76, 67 and this year's other statistical outlier 58 which was still second highest on the team.

I don't expect his point totals to go down from 58, maybe they go down from 67 slightly but I think this season will not be on Claude's production trend line, much the way the 93 point season will not either.  I won't judge him on this season alone and I think it is foolish for other to do so. 

He is a 65- 70 point player when healthy, points are hard for mortals to come by and Giroux has a been pretty damn good player for the Flyers.  I've said it elsewhere and often, it is no surprise that the team went into the shitter when he was struggling.  

[vis]

@mojo1917

 

Over the past three seasons, his point totals have decreased from 86 to 73 (-15.1%), 73 to 67 (-8.2%) and from 67 to 58 (-13%).  It's three years of decline.  I'm not sure where you draw comfort that he will produce an increase in production.   They literally signed a player to take away some of his "hard minutes" and his production still fell.   

 

Do do you think $8.25m for less than 70 points is value?  I could be ok with mid-70s.  But that's a 15 point increase over last year.  That's seems like a tall order.  

 

I hope his production doesn't dip further.  I didn't think it would this pst year.  But it needs to drastically improve, imo, above where it was the season before this.  I don't see a lot of evidence that it will.  

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

This year was the exception to the rule though. Giroux was playing on a surgically repaired hip and he wasn't himself until nearly 8 months after the surgery. Let's also not forget that Giroux's even strength scoring was practically non-existent, a statistical anomoly if there ever was one.

 

Giroux playing with a healthy hip is a completely different player. I think after the second half of the season, he was on pace for 70 points. I expect that Giroux will bounce back this up coming season and be a 80 point player. 

 

Voracek, on the other hand, is the guy that concerns me the most on this roster.

[mojo1917]

2 hours ago, vis said:

I'm not sure where you draw comfort that he will produce an increase in production.

It's the part where he struggled with recovering from an injury and was still second on the team in points.

I do not expect him to struggle finding his skating legs next year. 

He could get injured he could get hit by a bus, so we don't know the future. However, I don't expect him to be as inconsistent or "bad" next year.

I agree and have said elsewhere 8.2 m a year for 65 points isn't great value. 

I acknowledged the trend of his points declining, I think the drastic drop this year is an outlier.

If there is a trade with his name in it that makes the team better, it has to be considered. I don't see too many trades out there that make the team better. He's too good to be a salary dump traded for a handful of magic bean draft picks. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 minute ago, mojo1917 said:

It's the part where he struggled with recovering from an injury and was still second on the team in points.

I do not expect him to struggle finding his skating legs next year. 

He could get injured he could get hit by a bus, so we don't know the future. However, I don't expect him to be as inconsistent or "bad" next year.

I agree and have said elsewhere 8.2 m a year for 65 points isn't great value. 

I acknowledged the trend of his points declining, I think the drastic drop this year is an outlier.

If there is a trade with his name in it that makes the team better, it has to be considered. I don't see too many trades out there that make the team better. He's too good to be a salary dump traded for a handful of magic bean draft picks. 

 

 

I expect a better year for the whole team if they can find a solid option in net.

 

Some of the junk will have been cleared and all of guys on the team will have a lot to prove even the new infusion of talent whomever that is.

 

Now will that mean playoffs i can't say but i would expect them to be fighting for it come the end of next season.

 

A good camp and preseason can go a long ways.

[peter puck]

Trade them all

Fire the rest

[vis]

 

2 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

This year was the exception to the rule though.

 

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

I think the drastic drop this year is an outlier.

 

And I suppose that's the rub.  Was this season an outlier, or part of an overall trend?  Even if this season is an aberration, is it realistic to expect that his production jumps 12-15 points to where it should be in light of his contract?  Honestly, I can't see his production slipping further (of course, I thought that coming into this year as well).  But I don't see it increasing to an extent that would justify his cap hit.

 

Bottom line: this is all academic.  I'd be shocked if the Flyers would trade Giroux unless they were blown away by the deal or there were other issues at play.  But I also think it's a bit of wishful thinking that Giroux will regain 75pt+ performance.  I just don't think he'll become a top 10 forward in the league again, even though his contract says otherwise.

[mojo1917]

12 hours ago, vis said:

is it realistic to expect that his production jumps 12-15 points to where it should be in light of his contract?

Donald Trump - President of the United States.

 

weirder things have happened than a player with a high skill level regaining his form after struggling with an injury/rehab.

 

I don't think Giroux is as bad as I'm reading in various places. I don't think he's "just a power play specialist" -yet.

I think his health will determine his production level, if he's healthy I don't think a 12 - 18 point jump in his year end points totals is unrealistic, I also don't think he'll be a double -digit minus player either.

 

He's 29, and far from "stick a fork in him" IMO.

 

I see the justification for criticism, I also think he'll rebound from this year.

 

 

 

 

[vis]

16 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I see the justification for criticism, I also think he'll rebound from this year.

Fair points.  Good chat.

[King Knut]

17 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

It's the part where he struggled with recovering from an injury and was still second on the team in points.

I do not expect him to struggle finding his skating legs next year. 

He could get injured he could get hit by a bus, so we don't know the future. However, I don't expect him to be as inconsistent or "bad" next year.

I agree and have said elsewhere 8.2 m a year for 65 points isn't great value. 

I acknowledged the trend of his points declining, I think the drastic drop this year is an outlier.

If there is a trade with his name in it that makes the team better, it has to be considered. I don't see too many trades out there that make the team better. He's too good to be a salary dump traded for a handful of magic bean draft picks. 

 

 

Totally agree with this assessment.  Anyone who does anything athletic and has had a big surgery can probably relate to the fact that things don't just come back.  They can not hurt anymore.  They can not be in danger of rupturing or tearing again, but that doesn't mean they work the same way.  HOWEVER it also means that they'll never work the same way again.

 

Back when this happened, I started reading reports of guys who said that it took them more than a year to recover.  I've been through enough myself to know that sometimes things just don't work the way they used to right away.  It's kinda weird, it's incredibly frustrating, but with time and consistency and effort it comes back.  A big part of it is that scar tissue and nerves have to recover as well.  

 

I know I got on his case myself pretty hard when I realized the season was slipping away.  I had no high hopes for this year, but I wanted them to make the playoffs again for their own mentality.  And frankly my frustration had more to do with the team not telling us what was going on, as if they were pretending everything was normal.

And I've said similar things elsewhere in this thread (and also about Jake) but getting rid of your best players because they're not playing as well as they have or as well as you hope doesn't mean you're going to be able to fill the skates they are wearing.  

 

The chances of being able to trade Giroux or Jake and get anything close to what they actually provide this team in return is slim.  At least in the first few years.

 

It's been 4-5 years since homer sent the core of Richards, Carter, & Briere packing (helped along by Pronger's eye).  The team clearly hasn't recovered yet.  There are a ton of good players.  Unarguably, the team is better than they would have been without unloading Richards and Carter and Buying out Briere  but IMHO there's been too MUCH "blowing up the team" or cutting out the core happening to this team in the last ten years.  

 

There's a certain degree of aging out that happens to most players (Gagne, Briere-Jagr is inhuman and immune to aging I guess). And there's bad luck (Pronger) and then there are poor decisions (Bryzgalov/Bobrovsky).  

 

But on the whole, especially under Homer this team blew it up too many damn times IMHO without ever really committing to the rebuild.  

 

Hextall hadn't even really truly committed to a rebuild, but he has committed to patience.  too many of us and too much of the press coverage is about laying blame for this year, but clearly (from my POV anyway) this year was never part of Hextall's plan.  Nor does it appear to have been part of Hakstol's plan.

 

Giroux's surgery is the kind of thing guys wait years to have sometimes. Yet he and Ghost had it last year and it was described as almost pre-emptive at the time.  

 

THe fact that they didnt' tell us (oh by the way, we're doing this because we're expecting to have to wait another season or so to be good again) isn't all that surprising.  

 

a little more transparency wouldn't have killed them but it would have saved some of us (myself included) a ton of frustration this season.  

 

 

 

[OccamsRazor]

On 4/9/2017 at 10:18 PM, Howie58 said:

Here is a piece by Marcus Hayes of the Inquirer stating, in so many words, that Giroux is unlikely to be around for a Cup and his cap space could be deployed elsewhere.  Without saying yeah or nay on the trade, Giroux's benefit-cost calculus to the team will be a topic in the off-season to be determined in October and beyond.  

 

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20170410_Flyers_should_trade_Claude_Giroux___Marcus_Hayes.html

 

One thing I agree with--Simmonds is heir apparent for Captain.  

 

Missed out on a huge chance to rebuild this thinking back.

 

What might have been...

[Howie58]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Missed out on a huge chance to rebuild this thinking back.

 

What might have been...

Occ:

 

You are right. I suspect we are stuck with some very expensive relics.

[SCFlyguy]

And everyone wants to hang on to Couturier and repeat the mistake.  Team is 5 years away, minimum.