The decline of Giroux & the wrench in Hexy's plan

[murraycraven]

5 minutes ago, icehole said:

That's what a good captain is for...to get those nancies in line.  That's when you can win a cup with guys that were in the AHL the previous year.

 

 

LOL!!!  I love it....

[King Knut]

On August 12, 2016 at 0:40 PM, radoran said:

It certainly doesn't help that they stripped away a lot of his support - Hartnell, Jagr, etc. - and have often gone with a rather questionable theory that Michael Raffl is a first line player. And then Jake Voracek practically disappeared last season.

 

A legit first line LW would help his numbers tremendously, as would a revitalization of Voracek.

 

That said, his numbers show a definite peak from 2011-2014 and the trend line is not encouraging.

 

There's also the not-inconsequential matter of "head coach Craig Berube" for two seasons, but he still posted 86 points and a career-high 28 goals under Berube.

 

Hopefuoly Hak and Hex are thinking diverting a. It of the grunt work away from him. 

 

Muir used to crush me to see him literally skating 200 feet back and forth over and over again every shift under Berube. .. Trying to literally play every position and darn near pulling it off because he was just so good. 

 

Maits brutal on his health and may have to happen from time to time to win a game or two, but to no way to run a system.   It was horrible and my biggest problem with Hextall was that he didn't put an end to it sooner. 

 

Chief trying tonsave save his job did serious damage to Giroux and Mason both. 

[hf101]

On 8/16/2016 at 11:49 AM, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

That's why Couturieur being hurry was such a big blow. He was actually producing offensively and at one point was on a 60+ point pace until he got hurt. If he's injury free and if the Flyers are going to give him good wingers to work with (Voracek and Konecny), he should be able to hit 60 and help alleviate the constant checking Giroux faces. That in itself should help Giroux immensely. Hopefully Cousins and Laughton step up their games as well because that's even more help for Giroux.

3

 

Couturier's numbers for last season don't add up to the 60+ point pace and he had decent wingers all season.  Yeah, maybe he had a good stretch of a couple of weeks worth of games, but it really comes down to Couturier not being able to consistently put up typical 2nd line scoring as accomplished by other 2nd line centers of playoff contending teams. Until Couturier applies his defensively sound game to putting points on the board this team will not get past the first round of the playoffs.

 

Couturier's 39 pts in 63 games add up to a 50 pt season, which is only 5pts higher than what he scored 2 years ago with 3rd line duties.   I fully expect a healthy Couturier to put up over 60+ pts this season for it will be his 6th season in the NHL, it's time for this kid to live up to offensive expectations.... if not when do we call a spade a spade?  

 

 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, hf101 said:

 

Couturier's numbers for last season don't add up to the 60+ point pace and he had decent wingers all season.  Yeah, maybe he had a good stretch of a couple of weeks worth of games, but it really comes down to Couturier not being able to consistently put up typical 2nd line scoring as accomplished by other 2nd line centers of playoff contending teams. Until Couturier applies his defensively sound game to putting points on the board this team will not get past the first round of the playoffs.

 

Couturier's 39 pts in 63 games add up to a 50 pt season, which is only 5pts higher than what he scored 2 years ago with 3rd line duties.   I fully expect a healthy Couturier to put up over 60+ pts this season for it will be his 6th season in the NHL, it's time for this kid to live up to offensive expectations.... if not when do we call a spade a spade?  

 

Couturier hasn't hit 45 points in his career yet. He had 39 in 82 two years ago. Going from 40 to 50 is a not insignificant jump.

 

He had a nine game stretch in November where he was scoreless. The rest of the team wasn't all that great either, being shut out three times and held to two goals or under for three more.

 

From that point on, Couturier - over 50 games - had 36 points. That's a 59 point pace for more than half a season. As with the rest of the squad, consistency is the real issue and not having those nine-game scoreless stretches is essential. I am wondering how much of it was adapting to Hackstol's new system.

 

In any event, we will certainly find out next season.

 

For the record, I completely concur that this team doesn't get out of the first round unless they have more serious production from the second line and they have basically committed the second line to Couturier and he's starting a six year deal this season.

[murraycraven]

3 hours ago, radoran said:

For the record, I completely concur that this team doesn't get out of the first round unless they have more serious production from the second line and they have basically committed the second line to Couturier and he's starting a six year deal this season.

 

I will be honest.... I dont believe they even make the playoffs this year.   I think it is another bubble year so I am not even thinking advancing out of the 1st round.  The team is pretty similar to last year's squad... maybe a little better but not sure I see this team as a lock for the playoffs either.

 

3 hours ago, radoran said:

it's time for this kid to live up to offensive expectations.... if not when do we call a spade a spade?  

(the above quote is actually from @hf101)

 

So if Couts does not put up the offensive numbers then he falls back to the 3C in a shutdown roll that he can play just about as good as anyone in the league.  I still dont see an issue with having a center that is such a good defensive player.   Am I wrong with this thinking?  I dont think anyone thought he was going to be anything more than a 20 goal type player - and please don't bring up his Jr points.  For Christ sake Jody Shelley was a point per game player in Jr...  If he produces 20 per season than I am fine if not he still is a very important part of the puzzle moving forward IMO.   They just need to slot someone at 2C that can produce more offense.

[radoran]

4 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

So if Couts does not put up the offensive numbers then he falls back to the 3C in a shutdown roll that he can play just about as good as anyone in the league.  I still dont see an issue with having a center that is such a good defensive player.   Am I wrong with this thinking?  I dont think anyone thought he was going to be anything more than a 20 goal type player - and please don't bring up his Jr points.  For Christ sake Jody Shelley was a point per game player in Jr...  If he produces 20 per season than I am fine if not he still is a very important part of the puzzle moving forward IMO.   They just need to slot someone at 2C that can produce more offense.

 

Yeah, at $4.3M he's not a bad option as the cap has gone. You would hope he could get 15/40 in that role which would be solid. If they can get 20/50 even better. I think you're going to want at least 60 points from a legit competitive 2C.

 

But moving him to 3C still leaves a big hole at 2C to go with the hole at 1LW.

[murraycraven]

7 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Yeah, at $4.3M he's not a bad option as the cap has gone. You would hope he could get 15/40 in that role which would be solid. If they can get 20/50 even better. I think you're going to want at least 60 points from a legit competitive 2C.

 

But moving him to 3C still leaves a big hole at 2C to go with the hole at 1LW.

 

absolutely leaves a hole but I don't think for a minute that if he ends up being a 3C that it is a failure.   People love to point out his offensive deficiencies but compare him and a guy like Laughton who was also another 1st round pick one year later than Couts.  This guy is still an unknown and fighting to stay with the big club.  Couts brings and element to his game that most players don't have and that is great defense.   Last I checked Couts has been in the league longer, has more points and is a heck of a lot more important to this club than Laughton.

 

His salary, even at the 3c position, is still not terrible...  I hope he can be a 20/50 type player and he needs to show it this year.  If not Hextall is going to have to do some work to fill another hole on the team.

[murraycraven]

to me... if you want to nitpick young players it starts with Laughton.  Mental mistakes, bad defense, etc...   he is a 1st rounder that needs to step into an everyday role and contribute.   If anyone is in the way of being a "spade" it is him...

[JR Ewing]

Is 60 points really a fair standard to hold Couterier up to as a 2nd line center, when it would had him tied for 18th among NHL centers last season? Looking at numbers 31 thru 60 in the NHL, we get an average of

GP

76

19

29

48

 

Which goes along pretty nicely with his 82 game pro-rated numbers of

 

14-36-50

 

We can't simultaneously factor in Giroux's tough zone starts (which haven't been tough) but not factor in Couturier's (which were the toughest among Flyers forwards).

 

[murraycraven]

15 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

Is 60 points really a fair standard to hold Couterier up to as a 2nd line center, when it would had him tied for 18th among NHL centers last season? Looking at numbers 31 thru 60 in the NHL, we get an average of

GP

76

19

29

48

 

Which goes along pretty nicely with his 82 game pro-rated numbers of

 

14-36-50

 

We can't simultaneously factor in Giroux's tough zone starts (which haven't been tough) but not factor in Couturier's (which were the toughest among Flyers forwards).

 

 

Oh JR... don't let facts get in the way of it...

 

There is a portion of posters on here who just hate Couts.  He could score 30 and still be ripped on a daily basis b/c his skating, or his Instagram pics, or b/c he has not let his beard grow... 

[radoran]

11 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

Is 60 points really a fair standard to hold Couterier up to as a 2nd line center, when it would had him tied for 18th among NHL centers last season? Looking at numbers 31 thru 60 in the NHL, we get an average of

GP

76

19

29

48

 

I think we're looking at it more than "average NHL second line center" as opposed to "Cup competitor" second line center.

 

For example, if you look at the four division winners last season they average out to: 24.75 G/61.5 P

 

Trotchek (FLA) and Kessler (ANA) were the low end at 53 points; Kuznetsov (WAS) was 77 and Spezza (DAL) 63

 

Cup-winning Pittsburgh had Malkin at 27g/58p (in 57 games) and Cup-finalist San Jose had Couture at 15/36 (projecting to 56.7 points in 82) AND Pavelski skating along at 38/78

 

Anybody can just muddle along and be a "second line NHL center" but if you want to compete for the Stanley Cup you're going to need more than just muddlers.

[AJgoal]

58 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Yeah, at $4.3M he's not a bad option as the cap has gone. You would hope he could get 15/40 in that role which would be solid. If they can get 20/50 even better. I think you're going to want at least 60 points from a legit competitive 2C.

 

But moving him to 3C still leaves a big hole at 2C to go with the hole at 1LW.

 

41 forwards scored 60 or more points in the NHL last season - 19 of those were centers. Of those, 5 of them were on a team with another 60+ point center: Thornton/Pavelski, Kuznetsov/Backstrom, Bergeron/Krejci, Spezza/Seguin, and Kopitar/Carter. Had he not been injured, Malkin would have made it 6. Last year there were 3 pairs, and the top scoring center on the cup winner barely cleared 65. 60 point second liners are the exception, not the rule, in today's NHL. Couturier needs to score more, but getting 60 points from one second liner (Jake, Simmonds, or Schenn, take your pick) puts the team in very good shape.

 

I keep seeing this about left wing. Schenn was tied for 12th in goals and points among LWs last season. The team needs help at LW, but they need a middle six guy. Schenn is a top-line producer. Alternately, working with Jake in the off-season to move him to the left and moving Schenn down a line is an alternative.

[radoran]

9 minutes ago, AJgoal said:

 

41 forwards scored 60 or more points in the NHL last season - 19 of those were centers. Of those, 5 of them were on a team with another 60+ point center: Thornton/Pavelski, Kuznetsov/Backstrom, Bergeron/Krejci, Spezza/Seguin, and Kopitar/Carter. Had he not been injured, Malkin would have made it 6. Last year there were 3 pairs, and the top scoring center on the cup winner barely cleared 65. 60 point second liners are the exception, not the rule, in today's NHL. Couturier needs to score more, but getting 60 points from one second liner (Jake, Simmonds, or Schenn, take your pick) puts the team in very good shape.

 

I keep seeing this about left wing. Schenn was tied for 12th in goals and points among LWs last season. The team needs help at LW, but they need a middle six guy. Schenn is a top-line producer. Alternately, working with Jake in the off-season to move him to the left and moving Schenn down a line is an alternative.

 

Well, that was the point of my next post in terms of what competitive teams had. Two of the division winners had 53-point 2Cs, but the average of division winners was a 60+ point 2C. The two Cup Finalists had Malkin (over a ppg) and Couture/Pavelski.

 

The only non-playoff team with the 1/2 60-point C punch down the middle was Boston.

 

So, "60 points" is something of a shorthand. Agreed completely that you need someone on the second line in that area and that it doesn't have to necessarily be the center. But the Center is almost certainly going to be 20+ goals and 50+ points to be competitive for the playoffs and Cup.

 

Lastly, I am hopeful that Schenn really emerges as the default 1LW that they need. He wasn't on that line all season and is certainly poised to be that guy. But IMO the jury is still out.

[AJgoal]

33 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Anybody can just muddle along and be a "second line NHL center" but if you want to compete for the Stanley Cup you're going to need more than just muddlers.

 

You mean like 2014/2015 Chicago? Toews: 66 points. Richards 37. Shaw 26. TBL lost in 7 in the conference finals, but had two forwards at more than 60 points. Pittsburgh had one forward with more than 60, and Malkin projects to more than 60.

 

If you want to project, the Flyers had 3 players (Voracek, Giroux, and Simmonds) who project to 60+ points last season, and Schenn who is .5 points off.

[JR Ewing]

46 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

I think we're looking at it more than "average NHL second line center" as opposed to "Cup competitor" second line center.

 

For example, if you look at the four division winners last season they average out to: 24.75 G/61.5 P

 

Trotchek (FLA) and Kessler (ANA) were the low end at 53 points; Kuznetsov (WAS) was 77 and Spezza (DAL) 63

 

Cup-winning Pittsburgh had Malkin at 27g/58p (in 57 games) and Cup-finalist San Jose had Couture at 15/36 (projecting to 56.7 points in 82) AND Pavelski skating along at 38/78

 

Anybody can just muddle along and be a "second line NHL center" but if you want to compete for the Stanley Cup you're going to need more than just muddlers.

 

I hear that, but I think it fair to point out that only of those players (Kesler) has the same job as Couturier. The rest are given plumb zone starts near 60% against defense-first players, while Couturier gets 40% zone starts, and his most common opponent was John Tavares. Evgeni Malkin is as much a 2nd line center as Mark Messier.

[radoran]

1 minute ago, AJgoal said:

 

You mean like 2014/2015 Chicago? Toews: 66 points. Richards 37. Shaw 26. TBL lost in 7 in the conference finals, but had two forwards at more than 60 points. Pittsburgh had one forward with more than 60, and Malkin projects to more than 60.

 

If you want to project, the Flyers had 3 players (Voracek, Giroux, and Simmonds) who project to 60+ points last season, and Schenn who is .5 points off.

 

Well, the point of that line was the folly of looking at the "average" second line center in the NHL. And was addressed in a future post.

 

Again, you can have an average second line center but that doesn't necessarily translate to a truly "competitive" team.

 

Chicago was 3rd in their division in 14-15 and obviously relied upon their experience from their previous two Cups in making the run. In fact, they were 7th in points in the West. The Conference Final team the year before had five 60+ point players. When they won in 2010 they had four players over 60 points plus Hossa projecting to 73 points (51 in 57).

 

This past season they were again 3rd in the division with just two 60+ point players (plus Toews at 58) and lost in the first round.

Can it happen? Of course it can. And if you have a Jonathan Quick (or other goalie "standing on their heads" it can change dynamics), but is it something a team should be relying upon? IMO, no.

 

YMMV, of course.

[radoran]

Just now, JR Ewing said:

 

I hear that, but I think it fair to point out that only of those players (Kesler) has the same job as Couturier. The rest are given plumb zone starts near 60% against defense-first players, while Couturier gets 40% zone starts, and his most common opponent was John Tavares. Evgeni Malkin is as much a 2nd line center as Mark Messier.

 

Absolutely fair to point out. And a Very Good point. I believe the intention of signing Weise and Gordon is to allow them to put Couturier into a better zone start position.

 

Time will tell.

 

To be clear, I'm not at all saying that "Couturier can't do it" - I'm saying that if the Flyers are going to be truly competitive then he's going to have to up his game to a point where he plays a full season at the same level (or higher) than he did for the last 50 games of last season.

 

The point being that you don't want your "true" second line center taking the amount of defensive zone starts and that the successful teams - as you note - don't put their 2C in that position.

[JR Ewing]

Just now, radoran said:

 

Absolutely fair to point out. And a Very Good point. I believe the intention of signing Weise and Gordon is to allow them to put Couturier into a better zone start position.

 

Time will tell.

 

To be clear, I'm not at all saying that "Couturier can't do it" - I'm saying that if the Flyers are going to be truly competitive then he's going to have to up his game to a point where he plays a full season at the same level (or higher) than he did for the last 50 games of last season.

 

The point being that you don't want your "true" second line center taking the amount of defensive zone starts and that the successful teams - as you note - don't put their 2C in that position.

 

Agreed on all points.

 

[hf101]

13 hours ago, radoran said:

Couturier hasn't hit 45 points in his career yet. He had 39 in 82 two years ago. Going from 40 to 50 is a not insignificant jump.

 

 

correct @radoran  45 was his pim.  my mistake.   I'd still like to see Couturier nearing that 60pt mark next season, 55-60 would be a great way, if not an essential way to take the load off this one line team.

 

8 hours ago, AJgoal said:

You mean like 2014/2015 Chicago? Toews: 66 points. Richards 37. Shaw 26.

Actually, Anisimov played the 2nd line center role with linemates Kane and Panarin 

 

One key also for Couturier getting close to that 60 pt mark will be padding the numbers with some PP points.  I'd also like to see more points on the score board by this unit this season.

 

 

 

[AJgoal]

6 hours ago, hf101 said:

Actually, Anisimov played the 2nd line center role with linemates Kane and Panarin 

 

 

No, that was last year, not the year they won the Cup.

 

[Howie58]

In the for-what-it's-worth heading, the NHL Channel on Sirius had a Flyers preview earlier this week.  One of their major "burning questions" was Giroux's performance, in and of itself and in the broader context of a team that was 22nd on offense.  My takeaway was that Giroux's point decline is significant at his age. We have seen four years of decline, excluding 2013's work stoppage performance. Their contention was that G needs to take his point total over 70 to justify his pay, plain and simple.  And from what I gathered, theyseemed to be greater faith in a turnaround year from Voracek.

 

Granted, only time will tell. But the 70 point total seems reasonable as a benchmark. I hope he achieves it.  As for the supporting cast, I am not sure about Coutourier's trajectory.  What we know is that he's being paid half of G (roughly).  G and V take a huge chunk of this team's cap hit. They need to deliver, particularly in the next three years or so.  Post-30 does not seem to be good for most NHL players.  

 

Best,

 

Howie

 

P.S.  The duo handling the interview picked 15 of 16 teams that made the playoffs.  The one mistake was the Flyers.  One of the duo said he would not make the same mistake again  They were impressed with the H-squared duo and post-November 14th call up of Ghost performance.

[OccamsRazor]

1 minute ago, Howie58 said:

In the for-what-it's-worth heading, the NHL Channel on Sirius had a Flyers preview earlier this week.  One of their major "burning questions" was Giroux's performance, in and of itself and in the broader context of a team that was 22nd on offense.  My takeaway was that Giroux's point decline is significant at his age. We have seen four years of decline, excluding 2013's work stoppage performance. Their contention was that G needs to take his point total over 70 to justify his pay, plain and simple.  And from what I gathered, theyseemed to be greater faith in a turnaround year from Voracek.

 

Granted, only time will tell. But the 70 point total seems reasonable as a benchmark. I hope he achieves it.  As for the supporting cast, I am not sure about Coutourier's trajectory.  What we know is that he's being paid half of G (roughly).  G and V take a huge chunk of this team's cap hit. They need to deliver, particularly in the next three years or so.  Post-30 does not seem to be good for most NHL players.  

 

Best,

 

Howie

 

P.S.  The duo handling the interview picked 15 of 16 teams that made the playoffs.  The one mistake was the Flyers.  One of the duo said he would not make the same mistake again  They were impressed with the H-squared duo and post-November 14th call up of Ghost performance.

 

 

I think G will be ok if Jake can regain his form and they can find a LW for them to play with and keep whomever they chose there the whole season. Give them some consistency and who knows what could happen. I think i'd love a 2nd line of Schenn-Coots-Simmer. The key is to find that top line LW.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

Other than that i blame it on Lindros!!!

[mojo1917]

2 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

 G and V take a huge chunk of this team's cap hit. They need to deliver, particularly in the next three years or so.  Post-30 does not seem to be good for most NHL players.

this, I do think Voracek bounces back, i think last year was an production outlier and not the start of a trend.

I also think the team made some moves to give G a little relief on draws and PK.  I know his zone start stats don't really indicate he's getting hosed, but it seemed like down the stretch if there was a big draw he was on the ice, and that is an area where stats taken as a whole may be misleading. perhaps in the first half of the year, he wasn't taking those d-zone draws as much.

 

 

[King Knut]

4 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

I think G will be ok if Jake can regain his form and they can find a LW for them to play with and keep whomever they chose there the whole season. Give them some consistency and who knows what could happen. I think i'd love a 2nd line of Schenn-Coots-Simmer. The key is to find that top line LW.

 

Just my 2 cents.

 

Other than that i blame it on Lindros!!!

Other than the Lindros part (which I blame on Clarke) I completely agree with this.  Schenn-Coots_Simmer would be a great combo and giving someone with some hands the Left side on G and Jake is really what's missing.

 

I do think there's something to adding a Weise plus the growing trust in Laughton and Cousins that will enable Giroux and Coots (and therefore their linemates) to be in at least a few fewer less opportunistic situations per game.  Over a season that adds up.

 

Another thing that would add up that no one ever talks about is PP time.  Though not as opening hard as PK minutes, PP minutes aren't exactly easy.  

If the 2nd PP unit can start potting a few more goals, it would by necessity give the top unit a bit less time.  The top unit will always get more minutes, but if the 2nd unit could score in the middle of a PP more, it would negate the top unit having to come out for the last third.  

 

On the whole, the Flyers were pretty good 5 on 5 last year, but if the 2nd Unit PP can be better, it will enable Giroux and Co. to have a bit more in the tank for the 5 on 5 time.  They were God awful on the PP and on the PK for much of the year.

 

So all in all, less G on the PK and against top lines in his own end, Less G on the PP (without giving up PP goals) and the Flyers get better 5 on 5 automatically.  

[OccamsRazor]

16 minutes ago, King Knut said:

but if the 2nd Unit PP can be better

 

 

It can be his name is Ivan Provorov......leave Del Zotto and Ghost on the 1st and let Streit and Ivan run the 2nd...instantly better and this is how i think he will make the team.