17th best forward?

[murraycraven]

2 hours ago, radoran said:

Trading Hartnell away only magnified the issue

 

 

woooo, hold on a minute, rad!   We got Umberger on that deal who "will score 20 goals alongside of G", "can play any position", "can play the PP" and "can play the PK"...

 

 

[radoran]

7 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

Man, that is scary as all heck.

 

With the amount of money (and term) Hextall threw at Jake there is no other way to look at it.   If he is not that co-superstar I think Hextall gambled and lost which will kill the Flyers for years to come.  Although, Jake could rebound to that season before he was signed to that ridiculous contract.   Personally, I think it is somewhere in the middle but I do not think Jake is, ever was, or ever will be a 8.25M player.  

 

Call it Negadelphia and I hope I am wrong but I just dont see it.  I was critical of this contract from the beginning and will be until he either proves he is worth the money.   One great year and Hextall had to make this deal - still does not make sense to me.

 

Last season there were three forwards who had cap hits of $8M or more who didn't score 25 goals or more: E. Staal, Giroux and Getzlaf.

 

Next season the Flyers could have two.

[murraycraven]

Just now, radoran said:

 

Last season there were three forwards who had cap hits of $8M or more who didn't score 25 goals or more: E. Staal, Giroux and Getzlaf.

 

Next season the Flyers could have two.

 

 

well, we have that going for us... which is nice.

[radoran]

6 minutes ago, murraycraven said:

woooo, hold on a minute, rad!   We got Umberger on that deal who "will score 20 goals alongside of G", "can play any position", "can play the PP" and "can play the PK"...

 

"can sign the back of his buyout check"

 

FIFY

 

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, murraycraven said:

ink Jake is, ever was, or ever will be a 8.25M player.

 

 

Well Hexy could always leave him exposed for the draft.....i imagine he would get scooped up real quick and then bam cap relief....

[murraycraven]

16 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Well Hexy could always leave him exposed for the draft.....i imagine he would get scooped up real quick and then bam cap relief....

 

I suppose that would work if he had another dud of a season.  Although, not sure why Vegas would want that contract for the next too many years.  If Hextall were not to protect him I think that would send a signal to most GMs that he is not worth the money and the term he was signed to...   he is being paid like a start so he needs to play like a star.

 

I love Jake and hope to hell he proves it... if I am a betting man he is a player that is grossly overpaid.

[RJ8812]

On 8/9/2016 at 10:16 AM, King Knut said:

 

To a degree, Tavares has been able to score the big goals when his team needs them.  

That said, I'll be interested to see how he does this year with such a drastically reduced cast of characters around him.

I just don't see Ladd and Chimera being able to pick up that much slack.   

 Hardly. He's only been able to get his team out of the first round once 

 

I personally think that Tavares is overrated (still a good player though) because he's a former #1 overall pick

[King Knut]

13 minutes ago, RJ8812 said:

 Hardly. He's only been able to get his team out of the first round once 

 

I personally think that Tavares is overrated (still a good player though) because he's a former #1 overall pick

 

This will sound odd considering this whole thread started with me trying to defend G in this whole thing, but while the Islanders can't get out of the second round,  Tavares does seem to have been better at making plays and finding the back of the net in key moments at the end of games than Giroux has been lately.  He's got that thing where he can just turn it on and start dominating play when his team needs a goal.

 

Giroux seems to have set that aside more and more since "The Shift"  Granted, I blame this more on Berube and Hakstol (for polar opposite reasons) than Giroux and in the case of Hakstol, I think it's a temporary thing.  The team is going to need to be able to break out from the system here and there when the chips are down.  I think Hak knows this and as the team settles in and more guys can cover for pinches and over commitments we'll see skill guys like Giroux and Schenn and Jake encouraged to take the leash off in crunch time.

 

But I tend to disagree on Tavares.  I don't think he's overrated, but then again, I don't get the sense that he's awfully hyped either.  He seems like a good strong quality forward and the kind of guy you'd want leading your team.  I do think his job got a lot harder this year and personally, I'd expect to see him someplace else making a ton of money in two years when he's a 27 year old UFA.  

 

[radoran]

9 minutes ago, RJ8812 said:

 Hardly. He's only been able to get his team out of the first round once 

 

I personally think that Tavares is overrated (still a good player though) because he's a former #1 overall pick

 

He may indeed be overrated because of his former draft position (and reputation amongst "hockey people") but he's only been captain of "his team" since 2013 and has gone from out of the playoffs to the first round and then the second, posting 16 points in 17 playoff games over that span.

 

Claude Giroux hasn't been out of the first round as captain and has seven points in 13 games over that time period.

 

Tavares is also coming off back-to-back 30+ goal seasons (38, 33) while Giroux topped out at 28 two years ago and has posted 25 and 22 since. To be clear, Tavares certainly benefitted from the talent he played with while Giroux could probably be said to have had "lesser" support.

 

Overrated or not, I think most folks outside of Philadelphia, Hearst or Gatineau would be hard-pressed to pick Giroux over Tavares at this point. And, indeed, Team Canada picked Tavares for the Sochi Olympics while Giroux stayed home and picked Tavares before Giroux for the upcoming World Cup of Hockey.

 

If we're looking for "reasons" that he might be "ranked" higher than Giroux by the braintrust at NHL Network, that is.

[pilldoc]

On ‎8‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 10:36 AM, King Knut said:

Interesting.  What could possibly have happened over the past three or four seasons to make Giroux score less?

I can't imagine

 

Take a look at his SH% over the past years as compared to the other top players.  Giroux SH% has been decreasing over the last 4 years.  2013-14 being the exception.

2012-13 = 9.5%

2013-14 = 12.9%

2014-15 = 9.0%

2015-16 = 9.1%

 

Now compare that to the likes of a Malkin / Crosby / Ovie

 

Malkin:

2012-13 = 9.1%

2013-14 = 12.0%

2014-15 = 13.2%

2015-16 = 16.7%

 

Crosby:

2012-13 = 12.4%

2013-14 = 13.9%

2014-15 = 11.8%

2015-16 = 14.5%

 

Ovie:

2012-13 = 14.5%

2013-14 = 13.2%

2014-15 = 13.4%

2015-16 = 12.6%

 

This is just a sample.  I bet you if you look at the list again and looked at the SH% of everyone above Giroux, I bet you will find SH% higher than Giroux.  If I am doing my math right, Giroux's 3 year average has a SH% = ~11.0%  Using statistics he has a standard deviation of about ~2.0% At 1 standard deviation which equals about 70% of the time that means Giroux will have a 9-13 SH%.  That is below many of the top scorers.  So the real reason is WHY are Giroux's shots not turning into goals?  Is it bad luck?  Is he taking poor quality shots?  Injuries?  The type of system he is playing in or his linemates is irrelevant to this number.  If you can answer this these questions, then you are on your way to what to honestly expect from Giroux on a year to year basis.

 

So yeah .... I'm ok with Giroux being ranked at 17.  He is not elite IMO.  He is however, very good borderline/exceptional, but as far as elite status...that is at tile Lavy unfairly thrust upon him.

 

 

 

[King Knut]

2 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

Take a look at his SH% over the past years as compared to the other top players.  Giroux SH% has been decreasing over the last 4 years.  2013-14 being the exception.

2012-13 = 9.5%

2013-14 = 12.9%

2014-15 = 9.0%

2015-16 = 9.1%

 

Now compare that to the likes of a Malkin / Crosby / Ovie

 

Malkin:

2012-13 = 9.1%

2013-14 = 12.0%

2014-15 = 13.2%

2015-16 = 16.7%

 

Crosby:

2012-13 = 12.4%

2013-14 = 13.9%

2014-15 = 11.8%

2015-16 = 14.5%

 

Ovie:

2012-13 = 14.5%

2013-14 = 13.2%

2014-15 = 13.4%

2015-16 = 12.6%

 

This is just a sample.  I bet you if you look at the list again and looked at the SH% of everyone above Giroux, I bet you will find SH% higher than Giroux.  If I am doing my math right, Giroux's 3 year average has a SH% = ~11.0%  Using statistics he has a standard deviation of about ~2.0% At 1 standard deviation which equals about 70% of the time that means Giroux will have a 9-13 SH%.  That is below many of the top scorers.  So the real reason is WHY are Giroux's shots not turning into goals?  Is it bad luck?  Is he taking poor quality shots?  Injuries?  The type of system he is playing in or his linemates is irrelevant to this number.  If you can answer this these questions, then you are on your way to what to honestly expect from Giroux on a year to year basis.

 

So yeah .... I'm ok with Giroux being ranked at 17.  He is not elite IMO.  He is however, very good borderline/exceptional, but as far as elite status...that is at tile Lavy unfairly thrust upon him.

 

 

 

 

None of that has anything to do with the part of my  post oh quoted.  My quote above is my response to all this. 

 

First of all Giroux's percentage is eratic not declining. 

 

Second: Berube and a defensive minded Hakstol (I.e. Most of An entire team underperforming offensively across the same stretch ). 

 

Third: give Giroux Malkin, Toews or Bakstrom and then let's see what happens. 

 

I give him 8-10. Easy. 

 

And ill take G over Malkin and Ovie every day and twice in Tuesday.