flyercanuck Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I apologize; I am missing your point here. Homer makes ridiculously stupid trades, good trades, dumb draft picks, good picks, horrible signings, great ones. Now, if only he could have a plan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad Dog Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Now, if only he could have a plan. That's asking too much. Why would he want that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @flyercanuck, the worst thing Homer does aside from always drafting centers, and trading all our 2nd rounders.. is, he wastes third and fourth rounders on total goons, when teams like Detroit unearth total gems from Europe while we draft another Rinaldo with our third rounder. At least we got Ghost, he could finally be a good later pick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @RonJeremy Agreed, that stiff he drafted in the 3rd last year (the Ghoul or something close to that...LOL!) will never get a sniff of the NHL. Total waste of a pick...from what I read, the kid can't even skate = what a waste!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 @flyercanuck, the worst thing Homer does aside from always drafting centers, and trading all our 2nd rounders.. is, he wastes third and fourth rounders on total goons, when teams like Detroit unearth total gems from Europe while we draft another Rinaldo with our third rounder. At least we got Ghost, he could finally be a good later pick You could include some of his contracts as "worst things" but ya, he has a penchant for wasting draft picks on guys you're positive will NEVER make it or just giving them away altogether. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) @RonJeremy Agreed, that stiff he drafted in the 3rd last year (the Ghoul or something close to that...LOL!) will never get a sniff of the NHL. Total waste of a pick...from what I read, the kid can't even skate = what a waste!!!! Yes great example...draft a goon who may never see it past the AHL and passed on this guy... Oliver Bjorkstrand All he's done in his 2nd year of juniors is...(also a teammate of Leier) if Oliver only played center there is no way they would have passed on him. Instead he is a useless wingers...no need for those we can just draft and center and put him on the wing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 53 games 39 goals 43 assist 82 points +27 Why pass on this kid??? These are the type you spend a 3rd rounder on you can get goons anywhere!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Naaaaah we don't need this type of talent no way we need more goons!!!! GOONS! GOONS!!!! And Centers!!! More Centers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This are the type of moves that infuriate me about Homer!!!!!! Edited February 12, 2014 by OccamsRazor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 @OccamsRazor Baby steps OR...at least he's stopped trading 1st rounders away, and throwing in 2nds and 3rds just to get rid of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) @OccamsRazor Baby steps OR...at least he's stopped trading 1st rounders away, and throwing in 2nds and 3rds just to get rid of them. Our new goon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WE NEED MORE THEYARE THE BROAD STREET BULLIES!!!!!! Got a reputation to uphold!!!!!!! Well hopefully he can fight and doesn't become the 2nd coming of punching bag Shelley/Cote!!!!!!!! Edited February 12, 2014 by OccamsRazor Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 when teams like Detroit unearth total gems from Europe while we draft another Rinaldo with our third rounder. trivia: detroit has had 2 3rd round picks play in the NHL since 2004. johan franzen and joakim andersson. really tough to expect a team to strike it rich on 3rd round picks. niche players are about all you can hope for. franzen is as good as a typical 3rd round win gets, and i wouldn't call him a total gem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Trivia: since 1994, the Flyers have 11 2nd round draft picks. One (Nodl) has played 100+ NHL games*. They've actually had 20 3rd round picks and of them Patrick Sharp, Colin Fraser and Alexandre Picard have played 100+ games in the NHL. Since 2004, their most successful third rounder is Oskars Bartulis (66 NHL games - who is still on the cap as a buyout) That's about the same record on third rounders since 1994 as the Red Wings (who add Valteri Filppula to their third round "successes"). Detroit made their "great drafters" rep on picks like Holmstrom (10th round), Datsyuk (6th) and Zetterberg (7th). Zetterberg - the last of them - was 15 years ago. With the rise of expanded European scouting, there are fewer and fewer "missed gems" in the draft. * did not score more than Jagr Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 @radoran Some of the names of players taken 2nd round in the 2003 draft alone...... Loui Ericksson (538 games played),Kevin Klein (410) Patrice Bergeron (636) Matt Carle (577) Shea Weber (584) BJ Crombeen (377) Patrick O'Sullivan (334) Maxim lapierre (510) David Backes (546) Jimmy Howard (268) Corey Crawford (194) Philly, of course, traded their pick away for a guy that played 46 games for them. There were 8 other players taken in the 2nd round that I didn't mention that played more than 46 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonJeremy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @aziz..I useddetroit as an example, but .I just mean later round picks like by many teams have turned into guys Shea Webber, eat while we grab goons as if we're afraid someone else will steal them from us, when we can probably still get them in the 6th or 7th round Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 @radoran Some of the names of players taken 2nd round in the 2003 draft alone...... Loui Ericksson (538 games played),Kevin Klein (410) Patrice Bergeron (636) Matt Carle (577) Shea Weber (584) BJ Crombeen (377) Patrick O'Sullivan (334) Maxim lapierre (510) David Backes (546) Jimmy Howard (268) Corey Crawford (194) Philly, of course, traded their pick away for a guy that played 46 games for them. There were 8 other players taken in the 2nd round that I didn't mention that played more than 46 games. right, but look at that. those "some names of players taken in the 2nd round in the 2003 draft" are really the "the only names in any way worth mentioning taken in the 2nd round of the 2003 draft". and of those, klein, crombeen, lapierre and o'sullivan fall strongly in the "pfft" catagory. so, 7 guys out of 38 taken in the 2003 2nd round (weird 2nd round with a bunch of compensatory picks thrown in), one of the deepest draft classes ever. 7 players that you'd actually want on your team, and that's assuming you'd want ericksson, carle, or crawford on your team. that's less than a 20% success rate with 2nd round picks. which, to me, equals "who cares". if you can increase that success rate by trading it in for an NHL player, do so. people keep pointing at these distinct exceptions to the rule as proof that later round picks are invaluable, but the truth is they are a waste of time 80%+ percent of the time. and they are noteworthy way way less often than that. yes, you have to pay to play and all of that, but you have better odds doubling down on 12 with the dealer showing 10 than you do turning a later round pick into anything you'll ever care about. some other GM says, "hey, i'll give you this guy who will more than likely help you for at least a little bit in exchange for that very outside chance of a guy who will maybe help you at some point in the future," and i think the usual choice should be to do it. before you say it, yes, eric chouinard was terrible, and that was on its face a bad trade. then again, chouinard played more NHL hockey than 22 of the guys picked in the 2003 2nd round. even with that failure of a trade, clarke managed to beat the 2nd round odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 @aziz 2004 2nd round Bolland, Bickel, Comeau, Booth, Grossmann, Goligoski, Krecji. I see 3 guys who were key to their team winning cups, and Goligoski was traded for Neal AND Niskanen. We traded ours + for 34 year old Tony Amonte 2005 2nd round Neal, Vlasic, Pavelic, Abdelkader, Stastny, Latendresse, Raymond, McQuaid, We traded ours for 23 games of 37 year old Vlad Malakhov I know every pick isn't gold in the 2nd. But for all the 2nds we've traded away, what do we have to show for it?...fond memories of a handful of games from the tail end of some mid-thirties guys career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 (edited) 2004 2nd round Bolland, Bickel, Comeau, Booth, Grossmann, Goligoski, Krecji. I see 3 guys who were key to their team winning cups, and Goligoski was traded for Neal AND Niskanen. We traded ours + for 34 year old Tony Amonte yup. dubinsky, too. 8 players of 35 selected in the 2nd round that season became NHL regulars. a little less than 25%. we only got tony amonte, but 4:1 chance we would have had nothing at all had we just selected an 18 yearold. and of those 8, really only three (goligoski, krecji, dubinsky) are anyone better than the chaff you can pick off the UFA pile every summer. 2005 2nd round Neal, Vlasic, Pavelic, Abdelkader, Stastny, Latendresse, Raymond, McQuaid, We traded ours for 23 games of 37 year old Vlad Malakhov and again, 8 of 30. we're up to a little more than 25%, now. though, also again, only neal, vlasic and stastny are anyone of any real note. the rest, would you want them even if they were UFAs? do we pine for adam mcquaid or guillaume latendresse? so here with are again with 3 guys who could actually be called wins in the 2nd round. 10%. 90% chance that a flyers pick nets the flyers zilch. this is the theme of picks made outside of the 1st round: very very unlikely to ever do anything for you. yes, there are the exceptions. yes, *someone* wins the lottery, and can't be you if you don't buy a ticket, but generally you are just throwing money away. if you have an opportunity to get *some* kind of use outside of that pick, might as well do it. I know every pick isn't gold in the 2nd. But for all the 2nds we've traded away, what do we have to show for it?...fond memories of a handful of games from the tail end of some mid-thirties guys career. the point is that odds are that the flyers end up with the same thing to show for 2nd round picks had they made draft selections with them. look at it year to year: http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2005e.html change the "/nhl2005e.html" to "/nhl2002e.html" or what ever year and see how rare it is for those later round picks to turn out to be anything. look at all the blank "games played" fields, or double digit numbers. Edited February 12, 2014 by aziz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 @azizSure. And we could say the same for 1st round picks. Luca Sbisa or Steve Downie are dime a dozen players. Morin may never amount to anything. Is Laughton a great 2nd line center or an average 4th liner? So why bother? Cause sometimes you hit gold.We traded away several first round picks and got a whole year and a half of Pronger,and 12 games and 2 points out of Steve Eminger. Heck, we could have hung onto Daymond Langkow instead of dealing him for that 1st round pick that turned into many productive years of Jeff Carter which then turned into Voracek and Couturier. That trade is almost a reverse Flyer trade...Langkow has been retired for a few years now, and Voracek and Couturier aren't even in their prime yet. Think of the wily old vets we could have had for twenty or so games and a playoff run instead of a career of Claude Giroux, or Simon Gagne, or Mike Richards/Brayden Schenn/Wayne Simmonds (or JVR if patience was involved). Is Zhitnik for a playoff run more valuable than an entire career of Coburn?Those 2nd, 3rd 4th etc picks are all crapshoots. Rarely do they ever materialize into a Weber, Subban or Krecji. But like you said, if you don't have them, you have zero chance of nailing one. And of all the picks we've traded away, how many of those established NHL vets have got us to the promised land? Maybe the odds of hitting gold are slim in the 2nd round, and get worse as the rounds go. But the odds are, if you hang on to more of those picks, you'll eventually hit on one. I'll take ONE career of Weber/Subban/Krecji over ALL the games we got out of Amonte/Kubina/Modry/old Prospal/Nedved/Malakhov/Zhamnov etc....None of those guys were ever what I'd call hitting gold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 one of the things that the lack of a second round pick robs a team of is organizational depth, okay maybe the second round pick doesn't always turn into Shea Weber, but that second rounder may contribute in the NHL and if not will more likely than not be a good player in a The A who can play okay for a week in the bigs. This the need to trade for players less urgent, there is quality through out the organization and a culture of winning may take hold... So okay the odds are slim of an impact franchise player coming from the second round and I do see @aziz point. I also think when your own picks aren't available, aren't viable NHL players , it winds up making the whole team weaker. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doom88 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 one of the things that the lack of a second round pick robs a team of is organizational depth, okay maybe the second round pick doesn't always turn into Shea Weber, but that second rounder may contribute in the NHL and if not will more likely than not be a good player in a The A who can play okay for a week in the bigs. This the need to trade for players less urgent, there is quality through out the organization and a culture of winning may take hold...So okay the odds are slim of an impact franchise player coming from the second round and I do see @aziz point. I also think when your own picks aren't available, aren't viable NHL players , it winds up making the whole team weaker. I'm not so sure. Homer does a way better job with undrafted signings than anyone drafting in the second round and later. Scouting is scouting, be it at the draft or finding late bloomers internationally. Currently, see Raffl. Recent history: Bobrovsky, Gus, Read. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Pretty sure there was a lineup to sign Read...Homer (as usual) just offered most money+ longer term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm not so sure. Homer does a way better job with undrafted signings than anyone drafting in the second round and later. Scouting is scouting, be it at the draft or finding late bloomers internationally. Currently, see Raffl. Recent history: Bobrovsky, Gus, Read. I think Homer has done a pretty good job with undrafted players, but I do think that's going a little far. For discussion purposes: http://thehockeywriters.com/top-10-undrafted-nhl-players/ This is from last year. Forget some of the obvious and older ones (MSL, Boyle), but looking at the whole list with "honorable mentions" I see Powe, Read, MAB and - stretching back - Fedotenko being Flyer-related. A nice haul - especially dropping a Bobrovsky into the mix (article doesn't include goalies). But Powe and MAB aren't really impact players at all today - although the pick received for Powe (a 3rd, along with a 2nd) turned into Grossmann. Tampa, for example, has two players in this purported "Top 10" - Conacher and Purcell. They parlayed Conacher into Bishop. I think he does all right, and having the heft of Comcast and the allure of the Flyers doesn't hurt. He's also constantly bumping into the 50-contract limit so he's also taking a lot of "fliers" on people. Not a bad thing, necessarily. Just throwing it out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aziz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think Homer has done a pretty good job with undrafted players, but I do think that's going a little far. he said "a way better job with undrafted signings than anyone drafting in the second round and later". think that's probably true. if the average is 1 out of every 4 2nd round picks becomes an NHL player, and 1 out of 10 become players of note, holmgren has beaten those odds combing through the undrafted FA pile. if you throw away 8 2nd round picks, you figure you probably lost out on 2 NHL players. if you signed 4 undrafted players over those 8 seasons, though, you have done better than most, certainly, of the teams drafting in the 2nd round. i.e., he has made up his lost draft picks and then some. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doom88 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 @radoran I was comparing Homer's undrafted finds to any team drafting in the second round. The thread overall derailed into a draft value topic, and I am suggesting that the loss of the picks isn't that big a deal, especially when you can do even better signing undrafted guys around the globe. Showing that TB can pull it off too kind of helps my argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Don't want to further distract from the real topic of the thread...but had to get this off my chest. One of my *real* problems with Homer is not only how he trades his 2nd rounders, a respectable asset to begin with, but *who* he trades them for. Case in point, the 07 draft.....we get burned by the whole Kane/JVR thing, but then we get to the 2nd round.....WOW. We trade our 2nd rounder in 08 AND our 3rd rounder from 07 to move up in the draft to get......Kevin Marshall. Yet another failed attempt by Homer to get toughness and a physical edge into the Flyer line-up at any cost...literally. Problem is....he can't skate a lick. Never could. Players don't magically improve their skating, they can make minor tweaks and show slight improvement, but essentially.....if they can't skate, they can't skate. This was just a HORRIBLE misuse of assets by Homer. Through the years, Homer has made this mistake over and over again...drafting players with physical attributes that *just* cannot skate. It's maddening.....some other examples... 2013 draft 3rd rounder Tyrell Goulbourne 2011 draft 4th roudner Colin Sullentrop 2011 draft 7th rounder Derek Mathers 2008 draft 3rd rounder Mar Andre Bourdon....the book is still out on him, but his big weakness is still *skating* along with injury prone 2007 draft 2nd rounder Kevin Marshall 2007 draft 3rd rounder Garret Klotz 2005 draft 7th rounder Matt Clackson I'm sure there are more, but the list above are just a waste of assets, pure and simple. A NOTE TO HOMER...START OUT WITH SKATING PROPERLY BEING A PRE-REQUESITE TO BEING A FLYER PICK!!! This would be a nice change going forward, and save a LOT of time and money!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doom88 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Marshall was a good pick back then and just didn't develop. MAB was a good pick that wasn't developing. Both made the NHL, but MAB woke up and worked harder. Not sure how finding guys after round one who get to the NHL is a bad thing, even if they aren't regulars. In the same era, Maroon and Matsumoto ended up as AHLers.That's just blind Homer hate. I'll give you coaching struggles to develop NHL talent, but no further.Finally, MAB skates a hell of a lot better than you're giving credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 @doom88 Well, in my defense, I did state that the book is not out on MAB yet, but there is no mistaking his problem is mobility at the NHL level, injuries aside, that will tell the story if he sticks as a pro. Marshall was never a good pick. The fact he had a cup of tea at the NHL level does not change that. He is buried in the Leafs depthchart/system and will never, ever get another chance at the NHL. The guy could not skate worth a lick, he can be as mean and physical as he wants, the bottom line is at the NHL level, you *must* get from point A to point B in a respectable time frame. Marshall has never shown the ability to do this in a satisfactory manner, in juniors, the AHL or the pros. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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