Is Read the odd man out?

[Vincent05]

@canoli

I don't mind giving Harts one more year to see if he rebounds. I like him but I hate his contract with the NMC Homer seems to give every1. I was looking for a way to get cap space to resign Read and Hartnell just looks good to me if we can get out of that contract.

[flyercanuck]

I really hope Matt Read isn't the odd man out. I'm still not convinced that Brayden Schenn is everything he's cracked up to be. Other than physicality, I like what Read brings to the table more than Schenn.

I love Reads game, his speed, and the fact he doesn't complain about getting moved around. That helps the team a lot. And I hope we don't lose him over the Vinny signing, because Read will still be a good player when we're all watching LeCavaliers game fall apart 4 year from now.

Comparing Braydon Schenn to him is not apples to apples though. Schenn scored ONE less goal last year in the NHL in a shortened season than Read scored at the same age in the CHA playing against University of Alabama and Air Force. Schenn is 21, not 26.

[mojo1917]

Other than the length I don't hate Hartsy's contract. 4.75 a year is less tha Clarkson, they play a similar style, I guess it could be argued that 19’s extension set the market for Clarkson , but I don't view Clarkson as a better hockey player necessarily.

I like Matt Read a lot and he will probably be able to command 3.5 -4.5 based upon other contracts signed this year, what is next years ufa crop like? Are there superstars resigning or looking for new deals, does Matt fly under the radar as a result? Lot's of things to factor into his next deal. I'd like to think there is a way to keep him in the fold and if I was GM we'd have our calculators and phones out until we found it.

[brelic]

Other than the length I don't hate Hartsy's contract. 4.75 a year is less tha Clarkson, they play a similar style, I guess it could be argued that 19’s extension set the market for Clarkson , but I don't view Clarkson as a better hockey player necessarily.

I like Matt Read a lot and he will probably be able to command 3.5 -4.5 based upon other contracts signed this year, what is next years ufa crop like? Are there superstars resigning or looking for new deals, does Matt fly under the radar as a result? Lot's of things to factor into his next deal. I'd like to think there is a way to keep him in the fold and if I was GM we'd have our calculators and phones out until we found it.

Ultimately, the question is whether or not you want to pay a guy like Read $4-4.5M a year to play on the 3rd line. Sure, he'll get shuffled around based on need and injuries, and will kill penalties. But if he's a 3rd liner most of the time, is it worth that price tag? Would Hartnell be worth that much on the 3rd line? Clarkson?

I don't think his $$ will be the problem so much as the role he's expected to fill on this team versus how much money the market dictates he's worth.

[radoran]

@Vincent05 When it's all said and done, I think Read will become better than Ryan over the long haul.

Just to be clear here, Ryan is 26 with four 30+ goal seasons behind him.

Read is 27 with one 20-goal season and a "projection" for another.

Your points about who Ryan has played with are valid and important, as are Read's "intangibles" and perhaps edge on the defensive side of the puck.

However, Read has a long long way to go before he's "better than Ryan" and Ryan - who will now be the vocal point of the offense in Ottawa - may be just entering his prime.

And I like Read a lot.

The escalating cap next year may give them room to fit him. Have to see how the gate looks next year.

[canoli]

as are Read's "intangibles" and perhaps edge on the defensive side of the puck.

However, Read has a long long way to go before he's "better than Ryan"

That's why I question whether he'll command $3.5 or $4mil next summer. Barring a Ryan-like season (production-wise, i.e. 30+ goals), no matter how many intangibles he brings his value won't reach the $4mil mark. Will it?

Like Brel said it comes down to "how much do we pay a 3rd liner?" I realize there are outrageous contracts out there but it's hard to see Read getting more than $2.5 if he has another 45-pt season. It seems the Flyers will be in a tough spot either way with Read. If he has a big season he gets the 5 year/$22mil contract but if he ends with ~45 points his value will be half that. Either the Flyers won't be able to afford him or they'll sign a guy knowing his ceiling is probably 40-50 points. Maybe then it will come down to intangibles...

[flyercanuck]

@canoli

If Read gets "stuck" on Phillys 3rd line and puts up points accordingly, that's not to say he doesn't think he can get a better deal elsewhere because he can likely play top 6 on most other teams. He won't get Ryan money, but he can likely get more than we can afford.

[jammer2]

That's why I question whether he'll command $3.5 or $4mil next summer. Barring a Ryan-like season (production-wise, i.e. 30+ goals), no matter how many intangibles he brings his value won't reach the $4mil mark. Will it?

Like Brel said it comes down to "how much do we pay a 3rd liner?" I realize there are outrageous contracts out there but it's hard to see Read getting more than $2.5 if he has another 45-pt season. It seems the Flyers will be in a tough spot either way with Read. If he has a big season he gets the 5 year/$22mil contract but if he ends with ~45 points his value will be half that. Either the Flyers won't be able to afford him or they'll sign a guy knowing his ceiling is probably 40-50 points. Maybe then it will come down to intangibles...

The more I think about it, (and some posters on here have mentioned it few times)....the Flyers should be in good shape next summer cap wise. We have Kimo and Mez's money coming off the cap, 6+4 = 10 mill right off the top. Many say the cap will go up 5-10 mill next year, the 6 outdoor games should push league wide revenue through the roof, I expect the biggest money making season ever for the NHL coming up. Since the cap is directly linked to profit, it's gonna be a FA Frenzy the likes of which we'll never see again. Consertive, 5 mill in cap increase, but I really do think it will be closer to 10. Right there, that's an extra 15-20 mill, and Adam Hall and a few other depth forwards come off the cap also....although I'd love for Hall to stay.

If I'm doing the rough math right, even with G's super extension kicking in, they should be able to lock Read up for a long term deal of his own. Bad news, that contract will cost 5 mill, good news is Read racks up 31 goals and 31 assists next year, driving his leverage through the roof.

Edited July 7, 2013 by jammer2

[Mad Dog]

Just to be clear here, Ryan is 26 with four 30+ goal seasons behind him.

Read is 27 with one 20-goal season and a "projection" for another.

Your points about who Ryan has played with are valid and important, as are Read's "intangibles" and perhaps edge on the defensive side of the puck.

However, Read has a long long way to go before he's "better than Ryan" and Ryan - who will now be the vocal point of the offense in Ottawa - may be just entering his prime.

Point well taken; however, Read spent 2 years in the NHL and Ryan spent 5 years. As such, for this evaluation by comparison to be fair, we need to evaluate where each player was at the same point in their careers.

I realize Read was a late bloomer and we do have to take that into account. But, in his first season - which, for all intends and purposes was his rookie season, albeit at 25 years of age - Read scored 24 goals. In his sophomore season this year, he scored 11 goals, which projects to 22 in a full season.

In *his* rookie season Ryan played only 23 games and scored 5 goals. In his 2nd season he played 64 games and scored 31 goals. Then, of course, Ryan's career took off and he became a steady 30-goal scorer.

I would say looking even at the stats and disregarding pretty much everything else, the produciton is very similar.

Read also did reasonably well in junior hockey, being a central figure of his team winning the OMHA Championship.

Taking into acocunt the fact that Ryan played with studs who created tons of chances for him and Read has played almost exlculsively on the 3rd line especially during his second season in the NHL, I think both players are VERY comparable. And I actually like Read's game better if you look at his game in total and not just goal scoring. In my mind, he brings more to the game than Ryan does.

Read needs an opportunity to play. Play a lot. Play in many situations. This will not happen with the Flyers' signing LeCavalier and the top two lines being stacked. He will continue playing on the 3rd line player, which will continue unfavorably scewing his numbers and, ultimately (and unfortunately) will likely make him expandable.

[Vincent05]

@jammer2

We can only hope the Cap goes up 10 mil. Schenn and Coots probably get alittle raise too. Then we have to sign 2 goalies again so that will probably be 5-6 mil for 2? And we need to add in a over the hill FA with MNC Homer has to sign. No money left for Read.

[radoran]

Point well taken; however, Read spent 2 years in the NHL and Ryan spent 5 years. As such, for this evaluation by comparison to be fair, we need to evaluate where each player was at the same point in their careers.

I realize Read was a late bloomer and we do have to take that into account. But, in his first season - which, for all intends and purposes was his rookie season, albeit at 25 years of age - Read scored 24 goals. In his sophomore season this year, he scored 11 goals, which projects to 22 in a full season.

In *his* rookie season Ryan played only 23 games and scored 5 goals. In his 2nd season he played 64 games and scored 31 goals. Then, of course, Ryan's career took off and he became a steady 30-goal scorer.

I would say looking even at the stats and disregarding pretty much everything else, the produciton is very similar.

Read also did reasonably well in junior hockey, being a central figure of his team winning the OMHA Championship.

Taking into acocunt the fact that Ryan played with studs who created tons of chances for him and Read has played almost exlculsively on the 3rd line especially during his second season in the NHL, I think both players are VERY comparable. And I actually like Read's game better if you look at his game in total and not just goal scoring. In my mind, he brings more to the game than Ryan does.

Read needs an opportunity to play. Play a lot. Play in many situations. This will not happen with the Flyers' signing LeCavalier and the top two lines being stacked. He will continue playing on the 3rd line player, which will continue unfavorably scewing his numbers and, ultimately (and unfortunately) will likely make him expandable.

I still don't believe there is any comparison at all. Four years of 30-goal production in the NHL outweighs anything done at any other level. Read won a Junior championship, yes. A Junior midget championship...

"Comparable ages"? Ryan was in the NHL. Read was playing for Bemidji State.

To be clear, I like Read. I agree with your assessment of what could happen to Read's production. Wouldn't be the first promising guy drafted/signed by the Flyers who was never given a real chance and sent away to be productive somewhere else.

The organization is great at putting guys in position to win and be productive with other squads.

[jammer2]

@Vincent05 I get what you are saying, I worry about the cap all the time. Thing that I've noticed, Homer always finds a way to wiggle his way around it. I don't recall the cap effecting him wanting to address an obvious weakness in the team. I suppose the Carter and Richards deals were cap related, even though the haul coming back in Vorachek, Simmonds and Schenn was better than what left.....he probably does not make those moves if we were not up to the cap ceiling, so yeah, thank God homer got into cap trouble there....LOL!

The JR trade was another one that was strictly cap related, so homer does have a established history of losing assets due to cap problems. Mez may be the next victim, just like JR, we might have to throw in a draft pick to make it happen...take our bum, his salary and we give you are 5th rounder in 2020....ha ha.

[radoran]

The JR trade was another one that was strictly cap related, so homer does have a established history of losing assets due to cap problems. Mez may be the next victim, just like JR, we might have to throw in a draft pick to make it happen...take our bum, his salary and we give you are 5th rounder in 2020....ha ha.

Jeez, the wheels were coming off JR shortly after the Flyers' signing. 31 years old, five years, $7.5M per for 21/67, 27/59 and an injury-riddled 19/47. Let's not overlook his dominating performance with 7 goals and 21 points in 36 career playoff games with the Flyers including being part of the "veteran core" that outright quit against Ottawa.

He never played a complete season and never scored more than 14 goals after that.

I'm still going with the theory that the "future considerations" LA got for taking JR played a role in the Richards deal

[jammer2]

@radoran I can see Lombardi getting debriefed on his first day as LA GM, oh yeah, and Philly owes us _____ from the JR deal.....lol.

[radoran]

@radoran I can see Lombardi getting debriefed on his first day as LA GM, oh yeah, and Philly owes us _____ from the JR deal.....lol.

I think it was actually related to the whole Gauthier thing, but I'll ninja my way through it.

[jammer2]

@radoran Ahhh, the goat, that does ring a bell.

[Vincent05]

@Vincent05

The JR trade was another one that was strictly cap related, so homer does have a established history of losing assets due to cap problems. Mez may be the next victim, just like JR, we might have to throw in a draft pick to make it happen...take our bum, his salary and we give you are 5th rounder in 2020....ha ha.

The JR move was done so we open up cap space to sign Forsberg coming out of the lockout if I remember correctly. The dman Gauthier was a cap move along with Upshall and a 2nd.

[radoran]

The JR move was done so we open up cap space to sign Forsberg coming out of the lockout if I remember correctly. The dman Gauthier was a cap move along with Upshall and a 2nd.

It wasn't getting Gauthier, it was taking Gauthier.

[brelic]

I still don't believe there is any comparison at all. Four years of 30-goal production in the NHL outweighs anything done at any other level. Read won a Junior championship, yes. A Junior midget championship...

"Comparable ages"? Ryan was in the NHL. Read was playing for Bemidji State.

To be clear, I like Read. I agree with your assessment of what could happen to Read's production. Wouldn't be the first promising guy drafted/signed by the Flyers who was never given a real chance and sent away to be productive somewhere else.

The organization is great at putting guys in position to win and be productive with other squads.

I agree with this. Ryan and Read are really not the same type of player.

Ryan is making $5.1M per year, and he signed that contract THREE seasons ago. That combined with the fact that they are different players tells me Ryan's contract is not a 'benchmark' for Read. Ryan is a first line power forward who plays soft and is defensively suspect; Read is a top 6 forward who plays in all situations and is much more well-rounded.

Bozak is probably one of the closest benchmarks for Read. He's a smart two-way player that can pot 20 goals in a season, plays special teams, and can be moved around the lineup. Read scores more goals, Bozak gets more assists, but their production is right around the same level (45 points). Bozak just got 5 years, $4.2M AAV.

Looking at other cap hit comparables, you have players like TJ Oshie, Loui Eriksson, David Booth, Bryan Bickell. Bickell is an interesting case because he just got 4 years, $4M AAV, and in 3 full NHL seasons (he played in 3 before that but only 23 GP combined), he has one 37 point season, two in the mid-20s. And he got $4M per year. Never hit 20 goals, and he's 27.

There is no way Read gets anything less than $4M. To me, that's the absolute floor on his value.

[flyercanuck]

@brelic

I don't disagree with your cost...but Bozak is the Leafs #1 center (he'd be our #3 if he was lucky) and BFF of the delicate persona named Phil kessel. Rumours were if the Leafs wanted Kessel to extend, they'd better sign his firend.

[brelic]

@brelic

I don't disagree with your cost...but Bozak is the Leafs #1 center (he'd be our #3 if he was lucky) and BFF of the delicate persona named Phil kessel. Rumours were if the Leafs wanted Kessel to extend, they'd better sign his firend.

That's a good point... and one that I think works in Read's favour!

"Look at Bozak, he's putting up 45 points a year ON THE TOP LINE WITH KESSEL AND FRUITY LOOPS!. I'm doing that all over the lineup... back up the same truck you brought out for the Cosmonaut."

[radoran]

"Look at Bozak, he's putting up 45 points a year ON THE TOP LINE WITH KESSEL AND FRUITY LOOPS!. I'm doing that all over the lineup... back up the same truck you brought out for the Cosmonaut."

[flyercanuck]

@brelic

I can't argue your logic bre. LOL. I guess what I'm trying to say is Bozak has to be paid more because he's their only kinda sorta #1. Read isn't as "valuable" to Philly in the #1 center way. Not sure if that makes sense...I'm just trying to keep him at a reasonable cost.

[brelic]

@brelic

I can't argue your logic bre. LOL. I guess what I'm trying to say is Bozak has to be paid more because he's their only kinda sorta #1. Read isn't as "valuable" to Philly in the #1 center way. Not sure if that makes sense...I'm just trying to keep him at a reasonable cost.

Yeah, I see where you're coming from. That might be the sticking point between the two sides... if there is a sticking point, haha.

The Flyers want to pay Read based on his role within the team, whereas Read wants to be paid based on his production and talent level compared to his peers. I hope this doesn't happen, and I hope that it doesn't lead to a situation where Read wants to test out the UFA market.

Which comes full circle to the original reason I started the thread. If you don't think you can re-sign him because he wants to test out the UFA market, it makes sense to trade him and get at least something in return. Doesn't have to be right now, but trade deadline is a logical time.

[flyercanuck]

Totally absolutely 110% unequivocally agree. If Read doesn't re-up by deadline you GOTTA get something for him.