Blog - Internet DEFENDING THE PHILOSOPHY

[JackStraw]

I do think there is something to be said about how defensemen develop and whether or not drafting for development makes more sense than trading for developed talent.

I don't. With the salary cap today, this is not a sustainable strategy in the long term. Teams are going to have to be able to identify and draft talent. You can trade for 2nd pairing guys (which the Flyers have plenty of) but real top pairing guys are a) rarely available and b) hugely expensive (in both $$$ and trade assets) when they are available.

[Podein25]

Podein25 is an idiot.

Yeah, but he's our idiot.

[aziz]

Podein25 is an idiot. Aziz, your case is not persuasive at all. First off, that's basically what the Flyers have been doing for years and it's pretty much proven not to work.

what has proven that? that the flyers had a rough season defensively? or are we going with the "no Stanley cup" thing?

Second, yeah, the Flyers have a few 1st rounders at defense. And none of them are even close to being a #1.

and drafting dmen in the first round somehow fixes that problem, *poof*? over a hundred dmen drafted early, less than 40 became NHLers. spending 1st round picks on a position does not ensure anything at all.

Third, and I've made this comment before, maybe even to you, your suggestion implies that you don't trust your own scouting department.

I don't trust scouting departments in general, when it comes to defensemen or goalies. the competition and the game itself are so 180 degrees different from 17yr olds in junior to 27yr olds in the NHL that there is basically no relevant basis for projection. the more than 50% failure rate of 1st round defensive draftees proves that, as much as anything can be proven. you have worse odds of drafting an effective NHL defensemen in the first round than betting your car's title on red.

and besides, what is the model for the right way to do things? the team with the lowest shots against last season, new jersey? their blueline has exactly 1 NJ-draftee. or is it GAA-leader Chicago, with 3 home-drafted guys, a 1st, 2nd, and a 4th. interesting to note that the 2nd is the #1 guy, and the 1st is largely seen as an underwhelming player. or boston, with 1 boston-picked dman, currently skating as a 3rd pair player. he's a rookie, so not knocking, but saying boston seems to have assembled a very respectable defense almost completely outside of the draft, which has been proven to not work.

[aziz]

I don't. With the salary cap today, this is not a sustainable strategy in the long term. Teams are going to have to be able to identify and draft talent. You can trade for 2nd pairing guys (which the Flyers have plenty of) but real top pairing guys are a) rarely available and b) hugely expensive (in both $$$ and trade assets) when they are available.

the salary cap doesn't enter into it. real top pairing guys are gonna have real top pairing contracts regardless. you don't see many (read: none at all) who are still on the ELC. stud dmen get stud dmen money, regardless of what type of FA they happen to be. shea weber's 2nd contract had a cap hit of $4.5mil. 3rd contract, $7.5mil. then the offersheet-induced contract bumped his 4th to $7.875mil. at no point did Nashville enjoy an elite top pair dman in the prime of his career on the cheap.

i'm with you on the rare thing, but the money side not at all.

also fun to note that weber was a late 2nd round pick. w00t for scouting.

[radoran]

I don't. With the salary cap today, this is not a sustainable strategy in the long term. Teams are going to have to be able to identify and draft talent. You can trade for 2nd pairing guys (which the Flyers have plenty of) but real top pairing guys are a) rarely available and b) hugely expensive (in both $$$ and trade assets) when they are available.

Well, I didn't make a judgement on it, just noted that it should be involved in the discussion.

Your points are also very well taken.

Top pairing guys are generally very well represented near the tops of draft classes (since there aren't as many screwups evaluating Euro players a la Lidstrom (53rd overall) or Timonen (250th)).

I'd be interested to see the stats on first pairing guys who are still with their drafted teams. May take a stab after work.

As you note, one should also consider what it cost for the Flyers to have three of the 39 playing defensemen taken in the first round:

Schenn: James vanRiemsdyk

Meszaros: 2nd rounder

Coburn: Zhitnik

That's really not all that much of an expense. It does omit the three firsts (incl. Sbisa) plus Joffrey Lupul dealt for Pronger. And it does omit that the Flyers dealt their Top 5 defenseman pick (still playing in Carolina) for Joffrey Lupul, who then was dealt for Pronger (we can omit Ryan Dingle from the discussion, yes?).

The "reality" of the situation is somewhat blurry.

I blame Gazoo's rum.

[aziz]

let's see if this works...my quick take on every teams' #1 dman. when no one was super obvious, I went with icetime. there can be debate on some of these guys, but, when isn't there?



New Jersey Devils Andy Greene undrafted

New York Rangers Dan Girardi undrafted

New York Islanders Andy MacDonald drafted 6th round - NYI

Philadelphia Flyers Kimmo Timonen drafted 10th round - LAK

Pittsburgh Penguins Kris Letang drafted 3rd round - Pitt

Boston Bruins Zdeno Chara drafted 3rd round - NYI

Buffalo Sabres Christian Ehrhoff drafted 4th round - SJS

Montreal Canadiens P.K. Subban drafted 2nd round - Mon

Ottawa Senators Erik Karlsson drafted 1st round - Ott

Toronto Maple Leafs Dion Phaneuf drafted 1st round - Cal

Carolina Hurricanes Jay Harrison drafted 3rd round - Tor

Florida Panthers Brian Campbell drafted 6th round - Buf

Tampa Bay Lightning Matt Carle drafted 2nd round - SJS

Washington Capitals Mike Green drafted 1st round - Was

Winnipeg Jets Zach Bogosian drafted 1st round - Win (Atl)

Chicago Blackhawks Duncan Keith drafted 2nd round - Chi

Columbus Blue Jackets Jack Johnson drafted 1st round - Car

Detroit Red Wings Niklas Kronwall drafted 1st round - Det

Nashville Predators Shea Weber drafted 2nd round - Nash

St. Louis Blues Alex Pietrangelo drafted 1st round - StL

Calgary Flames Dennis Wideman drafted 8th round - Buf

Colorado Avalanche Matt Hunwick drafted 7th round - Bos

Edmonton Oilers Justin Schultz drafted 2nd round - Ana

Minnesota Wild Ryan Suter drafted 1st round - Nash

Vancouver Canucks Kevin Bieksa drafted 5th round - Van

Anaheim Ducks Francois Beauchemin drafted 3rd round - Mon

Dallas Stars Alex Goligoski drafted 2nd round - Pit

Los Angeles Kings Drew Doughty drafted 1st round - LAK

Phoenix Coyotes Keith Yandle drafted 4th round - Pho

San Jose Sharks Dan Boyle undrafted



gah. stupid doesn't take straight HTML formatting.

Edited May 21, 2013 by hf101
not sure if I made it better or worse?

[JackStraw]

what has proven that? that the flyers had a rough season defensively? or are we going with the "no Stanley cup" thing?

No, that the Flyers have been trading for other team's defensemen rather than drafting their own. You said yourself. The two real #1 defensemen they've had in recent years (Timo and Pronger) were both acquired at greater expense (either $, assets, or both) than would have been required if they had drafted one.

and drafting dmen in the first round somehow fixes that problem, *poof*? over a hundred dmen drafted early, less than 40 became NHLers. spending 1st round picks on a position does not ensure anything at all.

Drafting a defenseman certainly gives you a better chance at finding a #1 than not drafting a defenseman. Of course you may need a high pick to do it, which the Flyers generally haven't had. Until this year of course.

I don't trust scouting departments in general, when it comes to defensemen or goalies. the competition and the game itself are so 180 degrees different from 17yr olds in junior to 27yr olds in the NHL that there is basically no relevant basis for projection. the more than 50% failure rate of 1st round defensive draftees proves that, as much as anything can be proven. you have worse odds of drafting an effective NHL defensemen in the first round than betting your car's title on red.

and besides, what is the model for the right way to do things? the team with the lowest shots against last season, new jersey? their blueline has exactly 1 NJ-draftee. or is it GAA-leader Chicago, with 3 home-drafted guys, a 1st, 2nd, and a 4th. interesting to note that the 2nd is the #1 guy, and the 1st is largely seen as an underwhelming player. or boston, with 1 boston-picked dman, currently skating as a 3rd pair player. he's a rookie, so not knocking, but saying boston seems to have assembled a very respectable defense almost completely outside of the draft, which has been proven to not work.

Look at the recent Norris Trophy winners and runners-up. I don't have a complete list, but off the top of my head, Keith (drafted by Chi, albeit in the 2nd round), Karlsson (drafted by Ott) Letang (drafted by Pitt), Doughty (drafted by LA), Green (drafted by Wash)... somehow other teams manage to draft defensemen who turn out well. It really shouldn't be that hard, it's not rocket science.

[DaGreatGazoo]

I blame Gazoo's rum.

Git your own freakin' rum...

[JackStraw]

@aziz - About half of your list was drafted in either first or second round. Yandle is not Phoenix's #1, OEL is, easily. Joni is probably Carolina's #1. Two more first rounders. Denis Wideman is not a #1 in any real sense of the word. Calgary is a mess, everyone knows that. Hamilton is Boston's future #1, he's living up to expectations. Del Zotto may not be NYR's #1, but he did lead the team in points and is young and improving.

So there are plenty of high picks in there.

[aziz]

<br />Look at the recent Norris Trophy winners and runners-up. I don't have a complete list, but off the top of my head, Keith (drafted by Chi, albeit in the 2nd round), Karlsson (drafted by Ott) Letang (drafted by Pitt), Doughty (drafted by LA), Green (drafted by Wash)... somehow other teams manage to draft defensemen who turn out well. It really shouldn't be that hard, it's not rocket science. <br />

...really? drafting trophy nominated players shouldn't be that hard? not rocket science? 3 guys get nominated every year, 1 wins....and shouldn't be a tough thing to do? same with, I dunno, the rocket Richard trophy? lame on philly that they don't have any hart nominees on the roster, must be doing something wrong?

second, are those the dmen you want the flyers to have, green, letang, karlsson? 'cause, i'd agree, one-way offensive dmen are a not-so-tough lift in the 1st round. well rounded franchise dmen are a different story, but yeah, if the flyers want a winger in dman's clothing, the 1st round is a good place to look. still rare, and you are still going to throw 2 picks away for every NHL player you pick, but the scouting for those kinds of guys tends to be a little more accurate.

[JackStraw]

the salary cap doesn't enter into it. real top pairing guys are gonna have real top pairing contracts regardless. you don't see many (read: none at all) who are still on the ELC. stud dmen get stud dmen money, regardless of what type of FA they happen to be. shea weber's 2nd contract had a cap hit of $4.5mil. 3rd contract, $7.5mil. then the offersheet-induced contract bumped his 4th to $7.875mil. at no point did Nashville enjoy an elite top pair dman in the prime of his career on the cheap.

i'm with you on the rare thing, but the money side not at all.

also fun to note that weber was a late 2nd round pick. w00t for scouting.

Salary cap definitely enters into it. Yes, the good ones will get the big payday down the line but if you sign them as a free agent you will probably have to pay more than if you drafted the guy in the first place. And you're going to get some good hockey from those guys before the ELC runs out.

But maybe most importantly, you can plan ahead with young guys. When you're constantly searching for a proven guy you don't know what will happen (see Paul Holmgren's adventures last summer). You can actually come up with a plan to manage your cap, and not end up giving away second round draft picks just to dump Scotty Upshall's contract.

[JackStraw]

Yeah, but he's our idiot.

We do have the best idiots...

[JackStraw]

As you note, one should also consider what it cost for the Flyers to have three of the 39 playing defensemen taken in the first round:

Schenn: James vanRiemsdyk

Meszaros: 2nd rounder

Coburn: Zhitnik

That's really not all that much of an expense.

No, it's not. And that's fine. But you're not going to get a #1 that cheap. And the Flyers are going to need a #1 very soon. Even if they draft a defenseman in the first round, that guy won't be THE guy for a while. So they may have to fill the gap for a while. Thirty-five year old Marc Streit at around $5.5 million per looks like about the best bet to me. And he's not a long term solution obviously.

[JackStraw]

really? drafting trophy nominated players shouldn't be that hard? not rocket science? 3 guys get nominated every year, 1 wins....and shouldn't be a tough thing to do? same with, I dunno, the rocket Richard trophy? lame on philly that they don't have any hart nominees on the roster, must be doing something wrong?

lol... well, no. That's not what I meant. Drafting and developing good defensemen shouldn't be all that hard to people who have spent most of their lives playing and watching hockey. Yes, drafting a future Norris finalist is a bit tougher.

second, are those the dmen you want the flyers to have, green, letang, karlsson?

Green not so much. Letang, yes, I'd take him. Karlsson? I'll send my private jet to pick him up.

[aziz]

@aziz - About half of your list was drafted in either first or second round.

yup. 15-ish. out of, what was it, 103 1st round picks over the lst 10 years? like the odds? and those 15 are 1st and second round picks. I assume if I could up the 2nd rounders taken, we're probably close to 300.

Yandle is not Phoenix's #1, OEL is, easily.

true, going through 30 teams, didn't take enough time there.

Joni is probably Carolina's #1. Two more first rounders.

goes back and forth, icetime-wise. i'll agree, if only to make the point that 17 #1 dmen resulting from over a hundred draft picks still is a seriously crappy success rate.

Hamilton is Boston's future #1, he's living up to expectations.

the point was that boston won a cup doing the thing that was proven to not work. at the moment, Hamilton is coming along nicely, but is not a cornerstone to their current success, either. yet, I give you, but the point remains.

So there are plenty of high picks in there.

yes, with literally a factor of ten more picks taken. i'm not saying that high picks on dmen always fall through, i'm saying that a hugely huge percentage of them fall way way way short of what you'd like a high pick to be. the dice roll on a 1st round dman or goalie is many times less likely to pay off than on a forward. no risk, no reward, ok, that argument can be made. but it is a big big risk.

[aziz]

Green not so much. Letang, yes, I'd take him. Karlsson? I'll send my private jet to pick him up.

ok, agreed. but. it doesn't solve the #1 dman problem, really, does it? an offensive force like letang or karlsson are great assets to have, but they aren't answering any problems on the defensive side of the world. arguably, they create more. if the flyers have a primary problem on the blue line, to me it is no calm, confident and effective guy to manage the team defensively. a guy who can run the breakout is a good thing, but a pronger/weber/chara-like dman who is primarily focused on not letting the other team score is a different and, imo, more important animal.

[JackStraw]

ok, agreed. but. it doesn't solve the #1 dman problem, really, does it? an offensive force like letang or karlsson are great assets to have, but they aren't answering any problems on the defensive side of the world. arguably, they create more. if the flyers have a primary problem on the blue line, to me it is no calm, confident and effective guy to manage the team defensively. a guy who can run the breakout is a good thing, but a pronger/weber/chara-like dman who is primarily focused on not letting the other team score is a different and, imo, more important animal.

Well, then we should look at this year's draft to make it relevant. Jones would (should) be a no-brainer if he was available but he won't be. Nurse is physical, known for being tough to play against, and his offense is improving. Ristoleinen is considered a two way guy with some snarl. Zadorov is a monster, with unknown offensive potential. Maybe high, maybe not. Pulock is probably the closest of the top rated guys to an "offensive defenseman".

Now, the Flyers actually have some guys who are pretty good defensively. They're just short on guys who know what to do with the puck when it somehow lands on their stick. And I'm more concerned with handling the puck in the Flyers' end than generating offense at the other end. Is there anyone on the team now other than Timo that does not make you clench your teeth when they get the puck in their own end?

[aziz]

Is there anyone on the team now other than Timo that does not make you clench your teeth when they get the puck in their own end?

well. it's a matter of degrees, to be honest. if the puck is actually on a flyer's stick, bryzgalov can't give up a goal right away, so i'm relaxed, in relative terms.

i'm ok with grossman having the puck in the defensive zone. meszaros, when he isn't hurt. Coburn....briefly.

at the offensive blueline, I agree, no one but kimo makes me anything resembling comfortable. the thing is, when I get all nervous, I don't think "the flyers need a kris letang out there," I think, "man, I'll never stop missing eric desjardins." i'm not a fan of one-way offensive dmen, but I do recognize the need and shortage of a solid two way guy on the team. my philosophy on that, though, is the same as with goalies: they pop up magically in your system, they tend to not appear when you are looking for them. from that point of view, the flyers' problem hasn't been drafting, it has been patience with the assets they have. nothing the flyers have let slip away has turned into much, but the flyers, as a rule, still stop evaluating too quickly.

Edited May 21, 2013 by aziz

[radoran]

No, it's not. And that's fine. But you're not going to get a #1 that cheap. And the Flyers are going to need a #1 very soon. Even if they draft a defenseman in the first round, that guy won't be THE guy for a while. So they may have to fill the gap for a while. Thirty-five year old Marc Streit at around $5.5 million per looks like about the best bet to me. And he's not a long term solution obviously.

Followed right after that was the assortment of things they dealt for Pronger and what happened with Pitkanen.

#1s are certainly an issue in this situation - especially if you're drafting in the low 20s or into the 50s as the Flyers (nobody's really going to let a Nik Lidstrom or Shea Weber drop to 53 again...)

But the team should be able to draft for a 3/4/5/6/7 positions. 7, IMO, should almost always be a slot for a developing guy - not a Lilja/Gervais/Foster/fustercluck.

[JackStraw]

well. it's a matter of degrees, to be honest. if the puck is actually on a flyer's stick, bryzgalov can't give up a goal right away, so i'm relaxed, in relative terms.

i'm ok with grossman having the puck in the defensive zone. meszaros, when he isn't hurt. Coburn....briefly.

at the offensive blueline, I agree, no one but kimo makes me anything resembling comfortable. the thing is, when I get all nervous, I don't think "the flyers need a kris letang out there," I think, "man, I'll never stop missing eric desjardins." i'm not a fan of one-way offensive dmen, but I do recognize the need and shortage of a solid two way guy on the team. my philosophy on that, though, is the same as with goalies: they pop up magically in your system, they tend to not appear when you are looking for them. from that point of view, the flyers' problem hasn't been drafting, it has been patience with the assets they have. nothing the flyers have let slip away has turned into much, but the flyers still stopped evaluating too quickly.

I'm not a fan of one-way offensive d-men either. I think the guys in this draft that are rated highly are not projected to be like that. I believe Karlsson was taken in the mid first round because there were some questions about his defense. But I think now he's fine defensively, if not a real shut down type. I agree that patience is not the Flyers strong suit, but I do also think that they have shied away from drafting defensemen in the first round. But that may well be because they generally don't get a high first round pick, where those top guys are usually taken.

This year (imo) should be different. There are a bunch of highly rated d-men and one should be available when the Flyers draft. Unless someone like Nishushkin unexpectedly drops, there should be an argument to be made that the BPA at 11 will be a defenseman that will fit the Flyers needs. So, if I'm Homer, I'm not not drafting that guy, just because he's a defenseman and he may be riskier than a forward who the Flyers don't really need.

[aziz]

(nobody's really going to let a Nik Lidstrom or Shea Weber drop to 53 again...)

I don't know. I think the thing is that nik lidstrom and shea weber don't look like nik nidstrom and shea weber when they are 17. I think it's like going from driving your souped up civic quickly on back roads versus driving formula one. the demands and skill sets that determine success for a dman (or goalie) in junior are that different from the NHL stage, it is all but impossible to project how a child is going to respond over the course of a career. 82 game seasons, opponents weighing 230+, media scrums, everyone around you being the elite of the elite....I just don't think the translation is anything close to 1:1, and there is a ton of pure guessing involved. there will always be a lot of "who knew that guy would step up as a pro", and even more "well, that guy just fell off a cliff."

[aziz]

Unless someone like Nishushkin unexpectedly drops, there should be an argument to be made that the BPA at 11 will be a defenseman that will fit the Flyers needs. So, if I'm Homer, I'm not not drafting that guy, just because he's a defenseman and he may be riskier than a forward who the Flyers don't really need.

ok, i'll go there with you. I will, however, have the same feeling about it as I do when I walk past a roulette table and on a whim put a hundred dollar chip on green. gambling is fun, and when it pays off, it's awesome.

[JackStraw]

ok, i'll go there with you. I will, however, have the same feeling about it as I do when I walk past a roulette table and on a whim put a hundred dollar chip on green. gambling is fun, and when it pays off, it's awesome.

Yeah, well there is that.

[Howie58]

Greetings:

The article was indeed a tough read. But even if the dude is right--that we value forwards and "best available" rather than D, it still begs the question of why we really fail to nurture a lot of young players, period? I look at Chicago and see a team that has held a cadre together since the 2010 SC. We are the cast of thousands, cruddy D or not.

Best,

Howie

[radoran]

I don't know. I think the thing is that nik lidstrom and shea weber don't look like nik nidstrom and shea weber when they are 17. I think it's like going from driving your souped up civic quickly on back roads versus driving formula one. the demands and skill sets that determine success for a dman (or goalie) in junior are that different from the NHL stage, it is all but impossible to project how a child is going to respond over the course of a career. 82 game seasons, opponents weighing 230+, media scrums, everyone around you being the elite of the elite....I just don't think the translation is anything close to 1:1, and there is a ton of pure guessing involved. there will always be a lot of "who knew that guy would step up as a pro", and even more "well, that guy just fell off a cliff."

Weber was a bad example. Should have gone with Timonen at 250.

The point was more that Europeans (Gus notwithstanding) are scouted a lot more these days than even 10 years ago.