Snider needs to learn PATIENCE

[Mario99]

It was he who forced Holmgren to sign Bryz, there were no other teams interested in signing Bryz

And by the way one of the Vezina finalist is Bobrovsky, oh we had him

[toughfighter83]

It was he who forced Holmgren to sign Bryz, there were no other teams interested in signing Bryz

And by the way one of the Vezina finalist is Bobrovsky, oh we had him

whether if snider got bryz or kept bob i dont think it would make a difference for the way this team is playing, if there are goalie problems next year then that will be addressed, but as of now, this team is a real problem, it starts with homer overpaying for players and giving out no trade clauses which goes over the cap and lav refusing to hold the players and himself accountable for the slow starts, inconsistency, turnovers, that's on snider for not making changes.

right now, there's no accountability with the coach or unless he turns into fred shero, this team wont go anywhere next year either, it doesnt matter who's in goal.

same stuff will keep happening.

Edited May 10, 2013 by toughfighter83

[Bertmega]

Ron Mexico

[flyerrod]

LOL..Is this what you were going for Bert?

[flyerrod]

I don't get it...it shows the pic in the add a reply box but won't put it up..... Nice Ron Mexico number 7 Eagles jersey pic FYI

[brelic]

It was he who forced Holmgren to sign Bryz, there were no other teams interested in signing Bryz

And by the way one of the Vezina finalist is Bobrovsky, oh we had him

The thing is, I honestly believe that Bob would have put up similar numbers to Bryz in Philly this year. The goaltender in our "system" is not the one static piece that needs changing. It's part of the problem, for sure, but not the only one.

In January, Bryz went 2-4. That doesn't look very good. But he posted a 2.19, .924. You should win a lot more than 2 out of 6 games with those numbers. In the early part of the season, Bryz made us look better than we really were (and I know the opposite is also true at other points of the season).

The biggest difference between having Bob here instead of Bryz is that one would be growing, and developing with the team, only getting better and better, while the other one is on the tail end of his career and showing very clearly that he was shielded in a defense-first system.

And the fact that neither Homer nor Snider and their team in charge of player scouting did not see that (compared to, say, Vokoun, whose save % has always been in the elite-level) is the most troubling part of all.

Bryz is a career .913, but only three times in his career (9 years) has his save % been over .910 for the season. Those high years are outliers.

Vokoun is a career .917, but only ONCE in the last 9 years has it been below .917. This includes FOUR different teams.

If you look at the boxplots it becomes even more obvious that Bryz save % has a much wider spread (i.e. more variation... more inconsistent) than Vokoun. Also, Vokoun's mean and median are both higher than Bryz.

Seriously, if an organization is not making decisions based on data, it is doomed to fail.

[Bertmega]

@flyerrod

Exactly, I figured I would derail and obvious topic.

[brelic]

Ok, I had another one of those lunch hours where I decided to look a little more closely at the Bryz-Vokoun comparison.

Look at these two line charts. What I wanted to know was whether or not there is a relationship between Bryz's save % and his win %, and the same for Vokoun. In other words, does Bryz's save % get better the more his team wins? Intuitively, most of us would probably say yes for just about any goaltender. I wanted to see if there were marked differences between the two.

Also instinctively, I think most of us would agree that a truly competent goaltender would show less variation in his save % across winning and losing seasons. A puck is a puck, and you should be able to stop it regardless of how many your team puts in the other net, right? Well, it's not quite so simple, but kind of.

Interestingly, Vokoun's save % actually decreases as his winning % increases... not sure how to explain that. Too many other factors at play.

But, as expected, Bryz's save % is pretty dependent on his winning % as the trendline shows.

Bottom line? Vokoun is the better statistical goaltender whether your team is winning or losing.

But we already knew that, right???

[flyercanuck]

@brelic

Just watch Bryz play goal and you don't need to mull over stats. He's terrible. He looks bad at every facet of the position, except physical size. I honestly don't believe Holmgren or Snider actually watched him play before signing him to a lifetime contract.

[radoran]

Ed Snider is 80. The idea that he's going to "learn" or "change" seems silly on the face of it.

Vokoun was the obvious choice. You had a chance for a veteran starter for a short term to develop your young talent.

But this is an organization (and a fanbase) that still insists - adamantly - that a goalie that went 1.85/.936 and 2.14/.909 in the playoffs and 2.05/.921 and 1.83/.925 in the regular season in consecutive seasons was "the problem."

To be clear - ANY goalie is going to be exposed at times in Laviolette's system. It happened to Bob. It happened with Boucher and Leighton. It's going to happen to Mason. The run-and-gun, offense-first marmalade jam system is designed to outscore other teams. If your goal scorers don't score goals, you don't win. And the Flyers had a significant drop off in Goals per game:

Goals For/Against Average

10-11 3.08/2.60 (+.48)

11-12 3.12/2.70 (+.52)

12-13 2.73/2.87 (-.14)

Bryz put up, as Brelic noted, 2.19/.924 in January. The team rewarded him with a 2-4 record. Nobody talks about the effect of team failure on a goalie's psyche. Or that a goalie might be disheartened by the piss-poor showing of the team in front of him. Or that a goalie might have his confidence shaken by bad turnovers and odd-man rushes. It only ever works the other way, apparently...

Of course, when you have a goalie that has as much movement as a Weeping Angel* against a 2-on-1 (because, you see, one of the two is always looking at him) those things are especially costly.

The margin of error, however, is very small. Losing an offensive defenseman, experiencing further injury on the defensive corps, replacing a savvy hall of fame vet with a sophomore and you drop .4 goals per game.

There isn't a goalie in the league that can overcome that. Last year Pekka Rinne was 43-18-8 with 2.39/.923 and was a Vezina Finalist. This year he was 15-16-8 with a 2.43/.910 and missed the playoffs. His GAA went up .04 and his points pct. goes from .681 to .481. How? Nashville was last in the league this season with a 2.23 GFA. Last year they were 2.79.

The old adage remains true: you've got to score to win.

(aside: I don't really need the de rigeur "but Bryz is just awful" responses - I do call the man a statue in this very post tyvm)

* Doctor Who reference. Google it

[jackhole]

The man is what, 80 something years old, correct? Wrong or right, he doesn't have time to be patient. It might screw the team up for years, but if I were a breath or 2 away from taking a dirt nap, I'd be trying to win asap - and damn the consequences too. We may not like it, but he doesn't give a crap about that. Its 'do or die' vs. 'don't and die' for him, so I'd strap in and be ready to catch the kitchen sink!

[ZeZel25]

I dont want a "Patient" Snider. I want him to act quickly, telling Homer that Bryz will be bought out. I want Snider to inform Homer that Briere will be bought out. I'm not gonna lie to anyone, the anxiety I get at the deadlines and off season, because of the way Snider and Homer are, gets me super excited and scared ****less all at the same time.

[BearOnIce]

It was he who forced Holmgren to sign Bryz, there were no other teams interested in signing Bryz

And by the way one of the Vezina finalist is Bobrovsky, oh we had him

Mario, that is a nice thought but with all respect not possible. Ed is like a junkie to the needle. He tries to win at all expense without the patience to create an organization with the internal structure to develop a Stanley Cup winner the way it is done today. He listens to the player relics of his past. If they were great players they must be great management. How many organizations would allow a failed GM to maintain a position as a Senior VP in the same organzation? The most painful event of this coming year for Mr. Ed will be when the team tanks and he has to fire Holmgren mid-season. Mark it down. Or what will probably happen first Peter Laviolette gets fired as the scapegoat. It has been a lot of years trying to be a fan of this franchise. Manybe this is the last for me because it is fundamentally flawed.

[BearOnIce]

The man is what, 80 something years old, correct? Wrong or right, he doesn't have time to be patient. It might screw the team up for years, but if I were a breath or 2 away from taking a dirt nap, I'd be trying to win asap - and damn the consequences too. We may not like it, but he doesn't give a crap about that. Its 'do or die' vs. 'don't and die' for him, so I'd strap in and be ready to catch the kitchen sink!

The next Flyer parade will be when they take Ed down the load to Lemon Hill to pot him with the rest of the Snider's..

[Mad Dog]

@brelic

I honestly don't believe Holmgren or Snider actually watched him play before signing him to a lifetime contract.

Oh there is absolutely no doubt... NO DOUBT... not even a *shred* of a doubt... that neither had any idea of Bryz' game and didn't either bother to look. Scary, isn't it? You are bringing in a player, who is supposed to become a cornerstone of your roster (and not just for a few years but for many years), and signing him to a gargantuan contract without even having familiarized first with his game. Plain pathetic and borerline criminal negligence...

That was a typical reaction-type move after Snider got fed up by the goaltending issues. And that's fine. Getting pissed is fine. There is nothing wrong with not being indifferent. I can't accuse the Flyers for the lack of caring. If anything, this is one thing the Flyers can never be blamed for. Problem is, they often go about doing things without drawing a road map how to do it. Their scouts seem to be abysmal also, which doesn't help either. Homer should be able to rely on what his scouts are telling him before he is ready to pull the trigger on a given player. They failed miserably on Biron and now on Bryzgalov. Those are the people who I would have fired many years ago.

[BearOnIce]

Oh there is absolutely no doubt... NO DOUBT... not even a *shred* of a doubt... that neither had any idea of Bryz' game and didn't either bother to look. Scary, isn't it? You are bringing in a player, who is supposed to become a cornerstone of your roster (and not just for a few years but for many years), and signing him to a gargantuan contract without even having familiarized first with his game. Plain pathetic and borerline criminal negligence...

That was a typical reaction-type move after Snider got fed up by the goaltending issues. And that's fine. Getting pissed is fine. There is nothing wrong with not being indifferent. I can't accuse the Flyers for the lack of caring. If anything, this is one thing the Flyers can never be blamed for. Problem is, they often go about doing things without drawing a road map how to do it. Their scouts seem to be abysmal also, which doesn't help either. Homer should be able to rely on what his scouts are telling him before he is ready to pull the trigger on a given player. They failed miserably on Biron and now on Bryzgalov. Those are the people who I would have fired many years ago.

There is no plan. There is no road map. There is no farm system. There is no brain trust. Every Flyer fan needs to wake up, smell the coffee, and see what we have here. This is a broken, dysfunctional organization that rewards good players by making them scouts, assistat manager's management. Blind loyalty. Homerism of the worst kind. There will be no positive change until Snider and Holmgren are gone, and an outside group is running the team. This may take years.

[doom88]

How many franchises do you all really think are run, and have been run, so much better than the Flyers? Serious question.

[Howie58]

The thing is, I honestly believe that Bob would have put up similar numbers to Bryz in Philly this year. The goaltender in our "system" is not the one static piece that needs changing. It's part of the problem, for sure, but not the only one.

In January, Bryz went 2-4. That doesn't look very good. But he posted a 2.19, .924. You should win a lot more than 2 out of 6 games with those numbers. In the early part of the season, Bryz made us look better than we really were (and I know the opposite is also true at other points of the season).

The biggest difference between having Bob here instead of Bryz is that one would be growing, and developing with the team, only getting better and better, while the other one is on the tail end of his career and showing very clearly that he was shielded in a defense-first system.

And the fact that neither Homer nor Snider and their team in charge of player scouting did not see that (compared to, say, Vokoun, whose save % has always been in the elite-level) is the most troubling part of all.

Bryz is a career .913, but only three times in his career (9 years) has his save % been over .910 for the season. Those high years are outliers.

Vokoun is a career .917, but only ONCE in the last 9 years has it been below .917. This includes FOUR different teams.

If you look at the boxplots it becomes even more obvious that Bryz save % has a much wider spread (i.e. more variation... more inconsistent) than Vokoun. Also, Vokoun's mean and median are both higher than Bryz.

Seriously, if an organization is not making decisions based on data, it is doomed to fail.

Great post. The articles by Seravali and Carchidi the last few days confirm what you say. They also confirm what many here have felt for years--this organization is "forward-centric" and seems incapable of drafting and developing Goal/D. I suspect this gang thinks they can recreate a Clarke..or a Premeau..and the Cup will land on their heads. Seravali's write-up on the D was scathing. Today's piece by Carchidi shows the number of those we traded versus those we traded for. It's interesting...we would have been better to keep in most instances...or at least, something about playing elsewhere makes for better play. Eminger's plus minus is better than anybody we have. Heck...even Seidenberg looks good.

Peace,

Howie

[brelic]

Great post. The articles by Seravali and Carchidi the last few days confirm what you say. They also confirm what many here have felt for years--this organization is "forward-centric" and seems incapable of drafting and developing Goal/D. I suspect this gang thinks they can recreate a Clarke..or a Premeau..and the Cup will land on their heads. Seravali's write-up on the D was scathing. Today's piece by Carchidi shows the number of those we traded versus those we traded for. It's interesting...we would have been better to keep in most instances...or at least, something about playing elsewhere makes for better play. Eminger's plus minus is better than anybody we have. Heck...even Seidenberg looks good.

Peace,

Howie

Howie,

The schizophrenic nature of this organization is enough to drive any fan crazy. Just look at some of these quotes. It's amazing how diametrically opposed their actions are to their words.

Embarrassed by the goalie carousel - and still hurting from Michael Leighton's meltdown in the winnable 2010 Stanley Cup Finals against the Chicago Blackhawks - Snider vowed to do something.

"We are never going to go through the goalie issues we've gone through in the last couple of years," he said at the time.

Ok, good. I'm on board with you there, Ed.

Holmgren signed Bryzgalov to a nine-year, $51 million deal that summer. That, in effect, pushed Bobrovsky into a backup role. In the 2011-12 season, he struggled with the demotion and lost the rhythm and confidence he had developed as a rookie.

Last June, the Flyers sent Bobrovsky to Columbus for a second-round pick (promising goalie Anthony Stolarz) and fourth-round pick (left winger Taylor Leier) in the 2012 draft. They also acquired a fourth-rounder in the 2013 draft.

At his season-ending news conference recently, Holmgren said he did not feel haunted by Bobrovsky's success.

"No. I'm happy for Sergei," Holmgren said. "He might be the hardest-working player I've ever seen at any position."

Ok, now you're starting to lose me. You signed a 31 year old to a decade-long contract, and effectively bury the "hardest-working player" you've ever seen at any position???

Go on...

It's easy to look at the situation in hindsight and say the Flyers panicked when they signed Bryzgalov and reduced Bobrovsky's role. But Bryzgalov was a proven veteran who had been a Vezina finalist himself.

That said, it's interesting to look at some of Snider's other comments after the Flyers were swept by the Boston Bruins in the 2011 conference semifinals.

Snider made it a point to call Bobrovsky the franchise's "goalie of the future."

"I think he'll be a great goalie. He had an incredible first year, considering where he came from and that he didn't play on a particularly great team in Europe," Snider said at the time. "His future is outstanding. He's still learning the game and how to handle the puck. But he did a lot better job in the second half of the year. He has a lot of talent, and he's only going to get better and pick up the nuances of the North American game."

Turns out he did. In Columbus.

Oh, now I get it... I'm just not sure you do.

[Howie58]

Howie,

The schizophrenic nature of this organization is enough to drive any fan crazy. Just look at some of these quotes. It's amazing how diametrically opposed their actions are to their words.

Ok, good. I'm on board with you there, Ed.

Ok, now you're starting to lose me. You signed a 31 year old to a decade-long contract, and effectively bury the "hardest-working player" you've ever seen at any position???

Go on...

Oh, now I get it... I'm just not sure you do.

Brelic:

This is a painful but accurate read. I suspect change will only come when Snider is out of the picture or Comcast sees its investment going South and decides to intervene. There is management inbreeding and hearkening back to the Cup years.

Peace,

Howie

[Mad Dog]

How many franchises do you all really think are run, and have been run, so much better than the Flyers? Serious question.

Honestly, I have hard time imagining that many professional NHL teams actually make a decision to invest into a player who they are set to sign to a ridiculous multi-year contract and make this player a cornerstone of the team for many years to come without having bothered to actually study his game. Are there many franchises who make their business decisions as hastily and who fly by the seat of pants? Are you trying to convince me there are many franchises who actually operate that way? Maybe.... not being close to those other teams it's hard to judge. But it just makes it very hard to believe hat being the case.

[Dynamo 47]

It was he who forced Holmgren to sign Bryz, there were no other teams interested in signing Bryz

And by the way one of the Vezina finalist is Bobrovsky, oh we had him

Unfortunately at his age, Snider cannot have patience. He doesnt know how much longer he has and wants to experience another Stanley Cup win as much as the rest of us.

Not saying it is right or wrong, just what it is.

Edited May 13, 2013 by Dynamo 47

[doom88]

Honestly, I have hard time imagining that many professional NHL teams actually make a decision to invest into a player who they are set to sign to a ridiculous multi-year contract and make this player a cornerstone of the team for many years to come without having bothered to actually study his game. Are there many franchises who make their business decisions as hastily and who fly by the seat of pants? Are you trying to convince me there are many franchises who actually operate that way? Maybe.... not being close to those other teams it's hard to judge. But it just makes it very hard to believe hat being the case.

No franchise is perfect, but some are consistently run worse than others. That is more what I'm getting at.

[Lindbergh31]

No franchise is perfect, but some are consistently run worse than others. That is more what I'm getting at.

As Flyers fans we all appreciate how Snider will go to great lengths to do whatever it takes to put a winning team on the ice. What he seems to forget to way back in the 70's when they won their two cups, the teams were built through the draft and Keith Allen making smart trades not to mention the young teams in mid 80's that went to finals were also built through the drafts. Now that he's getting up in age, and the fact the team he loves hasn't won a cup in 38 years has clouded his judgement and he's making stupid, impulsive decisions. Unfortunately, like what happened in Chicago when their long-time owner Wirtz finally died, did the Blackhawks finally turn things around and look at them now, Flyers fans might have to wait for the same thing in order to see the Flyers do things the right way.