I hate to do this...

[DaGreatGazoo]

Ya know..it's June..it's not really hockey season...and I hate to do this..but does Frank Servalli really know what the **** he's talking about????

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20120625_Pieces_falling_into_place_for__lsquo_Homer_.html

I'm pretty sure I am not missing something here. Does he NOT get that the Flyers have qualifying offers out to several players...all who will be added to the Flyers cap hit???? Not to mention this: If you add the $3 million he quotes for Voracek, the $4.5 he quotes for Carle,and the 900K for a back-up goalie. That is approx $8.5 million...last I checked...$14 million MINUS 8.5 million...is NOT 9 Million!!!!! He may not be factoring in Walker and Oskars in.....but WTF...shouldn't the writer tell you that when writing the article?

The Flyers are in a serious position of strength heading into the opening of free agency. Assuming restricted free agent Jake Voracek re-signs and his salary bumps to $3 million and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million is moved to the long-term injury list, the Flyers will have approximately $14 million to spend (with a $70.2 million upper limit) on one forward, one defenseman and a backup goaltender.

Let's say Carle is back for $4.5 million and they get a savvy, veteran backup netminder for $900,000. That would leave Holmgren just under $9 million for the season to take a run at one of the premier free agents.

I agree with Bill Meltzer who said this...

Assuming the Flyers re-sign pending UFA Matt Carle, come to terms with their restricted free agents (Jakub Voracek, Marc-Andre Bourdon, Tom Sestito, Harry Zolnierczyk) and add a backup goaltender, they will be left a bit less than $3 million of cap space.

So, I ask you..is it the rum..or does a Flyers beat writer, once again...get it wrong???

[ruxpin]

Ya know..it's June..it's not really hockey season...and I hate to do this..but does Frank Servalli really know what the **** he's talking about????

http://www.philly.co...quo_Homer_.html

I'm pretty sure I am not missing something here. Does he NOT get that the Flyers have qualifying offers out to several players...all who will be added to the Flyers cap hit???? Not to mention this: If you add the $3 million he quotes for Voracek, the $4.5 he quotes for Carle,and the 900K for a back-up goalie. That is approx $8.5 million...last I checked...$14 million MINUS 8.5 million...is NOT 9 Million!!!!! He may not be factoring in Walker and Oskars in.....but WTF...shouldn't the writer tell you that when writing the article?

The Flyers are in a serious position of strength heading into the opening of free agency. Assuming restricted free agent Jake Voracek re-signs and his salary bumps to $3 million and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million is moved to the long-term injury list, the Flyers will have approximately $14 million to spend (with a $70.2 million upper limit) on one forward, one defenseman and a backup goaltender.

Let's say Carle is back for $4.5 million and they get a savvy, veteran backup netminder for $900,000. That would leave Holmgren just under $9 million for the season to take a run at one of the premier free agents.

I agree with Bill Meltzer who said this...

Assuming the Flyers re-sign pending UFA Matt Carle, come to terms with their restricted free agents (Jakub Voracek, Marc-Andre Bourdon, Tom Sestito, Harry Zolnierczyk) and add a backup goaltender, they will be left a bit less than $3 million of cap space.

So, I ask you..is it the rum..or does a Flyers beat writer, once again...get it wrong???

Not to be obtuse, but the way he phrased it, it's just under $9M by my math. I don't know what it is in reality, but he seemed to indicate it was $14M after accounting for Jakes's $3M. So, it's 14M-4.5M-0.9M= $8.6M (not excactly "almost $9M, so he was rounding quite liberally unless the starting amount was actually a bit over $14M).

"Assuming restricted free agent Jake Voracek re-signs and his salary bumps to $3 million and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million is moved to the long-term injury list, the Flyers will have approximately $14 million to ."See, I don't *think* he's starting with a blank slate at $14M. He's already accounted for Jake and Pronger to get to the $14.

He could be flat out wrong altogether, but I'm just saying his math works the way he wrote it. In any case, I think we have enough left over to get a decent dman or winger.

[mojo1917]

i posted this link in the bobby ryan trade thread...

of all the beat writers i dislike severalli the least.

[DaGreatGazoo]

@ruxpin

Hmm...you may be right. In addition in being obtuse...

However, I think he's wrong in how he is calculating it..Cap Geek has the Flyers at $11.5 million(rough), for my argument, we'll add in Pronger's $4.9 hit. That gives them $16.4(rough). Voracek goes for 3, and Carle for 4.5, back up goalie for 1 million(to round it off)...that alone is 8.5..add the other RFA's for roughly 2 million, That total is 10.5-ish. Even with my liberal math..that's 6 million left over. Not chump change...but a lot less that 9 million that he's quoting.

[DaGreatGazoo]

@mojo1917

Sorry, bud..I missed that post.

[ruxpin]

@ruxpin

Hmm...you may be right. In addition in being obtuse...

However, I think he's wrong in how he is calculating it..Cap Geek has the Flyers at $11.5 million(rough), for my argument, we'll add in Pronger's $4.9 hit. That gives them $16.4(rough). Voracek goes for 3, and Carle for 4.5, back up goalie for 1 million(to round it off)...that alone is 8.5..add the other RFA's for roughly 2 million, That total is 10.5-ish. Even with my liberal math..that's 6 million left over. Not chump change...but a lot less that 9 million that he's quoting.

I agree. Seems to me he's not taking into account the other RFAs. You add them back in (the $2M you're rounding to), you're getting close to the $8.6M I figured based on his math.

All this to say his math is okay, but his memory/reason is poor.

[mojo1917]

@mojo1917

Sorry, bud..I missed that post.

no worries , just making an observation, and full disclosure you probably had this thread going first

[hf101]

I think there is no way Voracek only signs for a 3M cap hit. If JVR had a 4.25M cap hit prior to being traded...why wouldn't Jake get an amount very close to that. Also if Carle is signed his cap hit will be much closer to 5M. If you add the extra 1.5M that leaves only 4.5M available.

[jammer2]

Have to agree 101, Voracek will not sign for 3. He's worth 5+ on the open market, prob closer to 6 when you factor in Ville Leino, which kinda set the bar for these mid range guys. I know he's not on the open market, but you have to be reasonable ie close to market value....if the money goes down the years of security have to go up....usually how it works.

[hf101]

Have to agree 101, Voracek will not sign for 3. He's worth 5+ on the open market, prob closer to 6 when you factor in Ville Leino, which kinda set the bar for these mid range guys. I know he's not on the open market, but you have to be reasonable ie close to market value....if the money goes down the years of security have to go up....usually how it works.

yeah I think a cap hit of 4-5M and probably be closer to 5M will be the going rate for Voracek. He basically is their #1 right winger and will be payed accordingly.

[Bakanekimiwa]

i posted this link in the bobby ryan trade thread...

of all the beat writers i dislike severalli the least.

if you disklike him the least, wouldn't that mean that you like him the best?

[radoran]

yeah I think a cap hit of 4-5M and probably be closer to 5M will be the going rate for Voracek. He basically is their #1 right winger and will be payed accordingly.

He's an RFA. They have his rights for $2.25M rightnow. The only reason to pay more is to extend term on the deal (and make the player happier).

[Vanflyer]

@DaGreatGazoo

Frank is lazy for the most part.

This article bothers me for three reasons:

1) He does a nice knife throwing job in the back of JVR. Granted, he never fulfilled the expectations for that abysmal season as a #2, but neither has Kyle in Ottawa. Additionally, I dismiss last year as write-off as he was injured for most of it.

2) "With Carle in the fold, the Flyers will ice a deep defensive corps when the puck drops on Oct. 11: Carle, Schenn, Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Meszaros and Nick Grossmann. It was a marked, overnight improvement."

Two parts about this that bother me:

a) He fails to mention Bourdon (who is a RFA and needs to be signed) or Gustafson on the depth chart. So, a COMPLETE gloss over on depth.

B) It is a marked improvement in the sense that we now have another body that can play d. Beyond that, it is an unknown quantity for the Flyers. The best part of Schenns game is that he LOVES to hit and use his body. However, he plays sometimes like Dan McGillis in that regard (taking himself out of the play in order to make the big hit). Frank could not mention that because he has no idea how Schenn plays.

3) The two online sources for cap hit numbers are capgeek.com and nhlnumbers.com. The first has the Flyers at 11.4 m and NHLnumbers at 11.1m- both pre-pronger credit assumption. I tend to go with capgeek.

"Assuming restricted free agent Jake Voracek re-signs and his salary bumps to $3 million and Chris Pronger's $4.9 million is moved to the long-term injury list, the Flyers will have approximately $14 million to spend (with a $70.2 million upper limit) on one forward, one defenseman and a backup goaltender."

So, lets break this down:

1) 11.4 - 3m (voracek*)= 8.4m

2) 8.4 + 4.9m (pronger LTIR credit) = 13.3m

Usually people fall into one of three categories: good with words, good with numbers or live in Pittsburgh (sorry Polaris). We now know that Frank is poor at both and is obviously living in Pittsburgh!!

Now we move onto his ability to count players.

By rules, NHL teams are allowed carry 23 players on a roster (I won't muddy the water with the pro roster count stuff) and 20 can be dressed a night. Allot of NHL teams carry 22 on the roster until the injury bug hits. So, 20 on the bench, two in the press box / club suite.

He actually correct on the roster spots (note- not contracts). There is room for total of 4 more players. Assumming we go with 22, that is 1 forward, 1 d-man, and 1 goalie. That said, most teams break camp with the roster full as an AHL guy with a two-way will get a good look.

Our current roster is:

12 Forwards (this includes Jody Shelley)

6 defensmen (not including Bodourn / carle)

1 goalie

But, if you are writing an article, you should write in the assumptions like I did (ie. he is assuming the Flyers will only carry 22 on their roster AND he is assumming that Shelley will make the team- which I highly doubt). If you take Shelley out, that is now a maximum of 5 roster spots to be filled and a probability of 4 (2 forwards, 1 d and 1 g).

The Zolniercyk / Sestitos of the world will get signed (one way or two way contract does not matter as they are waiver exempt). Bodourn also is waiver exempt, but he is on the bubble. He deserves hard look at camp. Lilja should be put out to pasture at this point (despite his cheap contract). So, lets say Bodourn takes Lilja spot (with a bit more money). Carle is re-signed. There is your 7. It leaves Gustafson for your call-up.

A healthy Meszaros / Grossman and an added Schenn to make this D much tougher to play against inside the d-zone as it will be much more Physical. All three players hit and are big men.

Meszaros: 6'2, 223 lbs

Grossman: 6'3 227 lbs

Schenn: 6'2 229 lbs

Then you have the liquid guys:

Cobourn

Timmonen

Carle

Add in a Bodourn (though his development would be wasted playing 7th fiddle) or a Gustafson and it does look pretty solid. Schenn does not need to play huge minutes here. 16-18m a night would be perfect.

After all is said and done, I think our remaining roster spots will be filled with what is currently unsigned as RFA's. The team has tremendous chemistry. Unless a total stud comes along, I don't see much else.

On a crap shoot:

Forwards

Hartnell-Giroux-Voracek

Schenn-Couturier-Briere

Wellwood-Talbot-Simmonds

Zolniercyk-Read-XXXX

The first three lines roll same minutes a night on EV (13), the 4th rolls 7. That leaves 14 for special teams.

Defense:

Top 6:

Grossman, Timmonen, Meszarous, Coburn, Schenn, Carle

Again, going to role 3 lines at 15 minutes each and 15 minutes for special teams. Lilja is your 7th and Bourdon is your call up in injury situation.

In the end, I am okay with that. So, the spending I see is RW, a backup goalie, signing Bourdon and Zoniercyk. I personally think that RW should be Jagr if he will go for 1 more year only at the same money (we have it).

So, here is how I break down the money:

Current cap availability: 11.4m + pronger credit = 16.3

1) Voracek- 3.5 for 3 years (I am pretty sure he will still be RFA after that).

> Balance 12.8m

2) Bourdon (two way)- 1.2M for 3 years

> Balance 11.6m

4) Zolniercyk (two way)- 900k for 3 years

> Balance 10.7m

5) Jagr- 3M 1 year or 5.4 for two years (or the one player I have coveted for a long time: shane doan, I'd give him three years at 4M).

> Balance 7.7m

6) Back-up goalie- 1.2m for two years

> Balance 6.5m

Net balance: 6.5M

Unless a stud deal comes along, I would go with that.

[Vanflyer]

He's worth 5+ on the open market,

You are overvauluing him a tad. He is JVR money on the open market. Same draft class, a couple picks down and has performed near the same until the past season.

Just saying. :-P

I think what the Flyers do is give him a Giroux like bump to 3.5 ish and sign him within the RFA boundaries (3 years for him I believe).

[mojo1917]

if you disklike him the least, wouldn't that mean that you like him the best?

you would think that right ?

but i don't really like any of the reporters that gossip about the flyers, carchidi, panotch, ford, severalli they're all of the same mold. severalli creates the least amount of stories with badgering questions, but then has the occasional fact error in his columns which i think is inexcusable for a person with his access.

and that's about the nicest thing i can think of to write about a flyers beat writer.

so yes i dislike him the least.

[brelic]

He's an RFA. They have his rights for $2.25M rightnow. The only reason to pay more is to extend term on the deal (and make the player happier).

He could refuse to sign and take the team to arbitration. That always seems to cause a fractured relationship, but I think if the Flyers qualified him at $2.5M (roughly the requisite 10% increase), and he took the team to arbitration, he would get something closer to JVR money.

Then again, he might not yet be arbitration-eligible... not sure.

[radoran]

He could refuse to sign and take the team to arbitration. That always seems to cause a fractured relationship, but I think if the Flyers qualified him at $2.5M (roughly the requisite 10% increase), and he took the team to arbitration, he would get something closer to JVR money.

Then again, he might not yet be arbitration-eligible... not sure.

I believe RFAs making what Voracek is making are only entitled to a 100% qualifier.

He is eligible for arbitration (http://proicehockey.about.com/od/nhlfreeagents/a/arbitration.htm) and IMO the Flyers would deal him in a red hot minute if he filed for it.

[brelic]

I believe RFAs making what Voracek is making are only entitled to a 100% qualifier.

He is eligible for arbitration (http://proicehockey....arbitration.htm) and IMO the Flyers would deal him in a red hot minute if he filed for it.

Thanks rad.

Totally agree... Flyers don't do well with players who file for arb.

But he's definitely worth around $4M if JVR is used as a benchmark. Well done, Homer.

[radoran]

Thanks rad.

Totally agree... Flyers don't do well with players who file for arb.

But he's definitely worth around $4M if JVR is used as a benchmark. Well done, Homer.

JVR's deal was made in the last year before UFA so it's a little different. They don't allow that sort of comparison in the arbitration, for example.

I can see them going with a $3M number for a year and renegotiating a longer deal in "the last year of the deal" - regardless, Voracek will likely increase his value over the next year (barring injury). That would be a good faith indication on both sides that the player wants to be here and the team wants him.