Game 3: Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers; 12/15/24 @ 10 PM, ESPN

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

Despite a poor start (0-3), Edmonton is a fairly heavy favorite (-215):

https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/ice-hockey/nhl/philadelphia-flyers-@-edmonton-oilers-33689624

 

Historically, this series is home ice-dominated:

https://flyershistory.net/cgi-bin/opponent.cgi?Edmonton_Oilers

 

We haven't won at Rexall since '21.   Maybe Ersson pulls the rabbit out of the hat. 

 

 

[flyerdog]

well we have always been the streak breakers....

 

"here is a player who hasn't scored in 12 games..." (gets a hat trick against us)

"Here is a goalie who has yet to post a shut out" (shuts us out)

 

"This team is winless so far..." (won't finish that...)

[Howie58]

1 hour ago, flyerdog said:

well we have always been the streak breakers....

 

"here is a player who hasn't scored in 12 games..." (gets a hat trick against us)

"Here is a goalie who has yet to post a shut out" (shuts us out)

 

"This team is winless so far..." (won't finish that...)

Dear Flyerdog:

 

Yes, the flukes become a reality.  The lack of respect from oddsmakers is strange--this provides some insight:

 

https://sportsbookwire.usatoday.com/2024/10/15/philadelphia-flyers-at-edmonton-oilers-odds-picks-and-predictions-2/

 

They're potent 5 on 5, they're 4-1 against us at Rexall over the last four years, and we ended last year as a weak road team.

 

It appears the Michkov experiment as left winger will end and he reverts to the natural right wing position--for the time being. If I believe Charlie O' Connor, Poehling sits.  Apparently, Nick D is in.  

 

If nothing else, starting the season against four strong Western opponents (I think the Kraken are reasonable) tells us something about the team's pluses and minuses.  

 

Flyerdog--per earlier posts from the last game, you and I have to worry about a team that shoots a lot but underscores the opponent.  I hate to sound like a broken record, but that pattern over the last few years has really bothered me.  We aren't going to win games shooting a lot from 40 feet out and from wide angles.  Rad @radoran was right--we got to get greasy and make the opposing goalie earn his keep.  

 

This 

 

Edited 10 hours ago by Howie58

[JR Ewing]

51 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

It appears the Michkov experiment as left winger will end and he reverts to the natural right wing position

 

 

Wait; what?

 

 

[radoran]

21 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

Wait; what?

 

They played Michkov on the left side with Couturier and Konecny for the opening games.

[OccamsRazor]

54 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

They played Michkov on the left side with Couturier and Konecny for the opening games.

 

 

Yeah move rookie to a different position not your 9 million dollar vet guess if Konecny could play both wings it would have cost them 12 million a year...nice return on investment 

 

[radoran]

8 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Yeah move rookie to a different position not your 9 million dollar vet guess if Konecny could play both wings it would have cost them 12 million a year...nice return on investment 

 

 

This is showing Konecny now on the left - on the second line

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/teams/philadelphia-flyers/line-combinations

 

And Tippett staying on the left to move up with Frost as 1C and Michkov.

 

Then Luchanko centering the second line and Couturier dropping down to the third with Laughton and Brink.

 

For those following along at home, that's four right wings on the top two lines...

 

[Buffalo Rick]

No worries here.  You get to play a team that’s been outscored 15-3.  What’s going on in Edmonton?

[JR Ewing]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Rick said:

No worries here.  You get to play a team that’s been outscored 15-3.  What’s going on in Edmonton?

 

The Oilers have the 4th-best Expected Goals For% in the NHL, have a shooting percentage of 3.2% and a SV% of .783... In other words, they're getting PDO'd really hard in the three games so far. They're fine.

 

[Buffalo Rick]

40 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

The Oilers have the 4th-best Expected Goals For% in the NHL, have a shooting percentage of 3.2% and a SV% of .783... In other words, they're getting PDO'd really hard in the three games so far. They're fine.

 

Suuuuuure.  They are fine?  15-3 fine?  Maybe they are toast.  The coach will be.

What in the devil does PDO stand for ?

Edited 7 hours ago by Buffalo Rick

[JR Ewing]

48 minutes ago, Buffalo Rick said:

Suuuuuure.  They are fine?  15-3 fine?  Maybe they are toast.  The coach will be.

What in the devil does PDO stand for ?

 

PDO is a measure of puck luck, essentially, and is Save Percentage + Shooting Percentage. 100 is average, and there is a strong tendency to be around that 100 mark as the games pile up. For awhile, teams can win games despite being heavily out-chanced, and they can win games where they are heavily out-chanced, but in the end, things come around to where they should.

 

-Am I happy that they're 0-3? Not at all. Would I be happy if they were 3-0, but were getting by on short-term good luck and a goalie standing on his head? Not at all.

-The coach took over a team that was 2-13, and brought them to a pair of eight game winning streaks and a 16-game winning streak before losing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals? You think his job is in deep trouble when his team has been out-playing the opposition, but the goaltending has been bad? Not yet; and not close.

 

[Howie58]

I am glad Frost is Number 1 C.  I'd rather conserve Coots at 2 and see if we can build a good first line.  As for Michkov, I think he will eventually thrive wherever we put him, but he needs speed and skill on his line mates.  That said, I hope line juggling ends by Black Friday at the latest.  There comes a point where the experimentation hurts.  And as a coach, I don't see how you can judge talent with constant change. 

 

Another "factoid" is Erik Johnson.  Eye tests and advanced stats suggest he is not helping us.  

 

I recall the Bad Old Days when we could barely get the puck out of our zone five-on-five.  Thank the Lord those days are over.  Now we need some sniping and a D that will make it painful for opponents to get within 5-10 feet of the goal.  

[flyercanuck]

6 hours ago, Howie58 said:

It appears the Michkov experiment as left winger will end and he reverts to the natural right wing position--for the time being.

 

Only in Philly would they do this to a rookie franchise-type player. I would say it boggles the mind, but I'm pretty much used to this kind of crap from these guys by now.

 

 

[JR Ewing]

5 hours ago, radoran said:

 

They played Michkov on the left side with Couturier and Konecny for the opening games. 

 

I know that everybody around here knows this, but... Why would you ask a teenaged rookie to play on his offwing while he's just trying to break into the league?

[radoran]

22 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

I am glad Frost is Number 1 C.  I'd rather conserve Coots at 2 and see if we can build a good first line. 

 

Dailyfaceoff has Couturier as 3C. B-b-b-b-bennie and the Jett is 2C.

 

They also have moved Konecny back to 2RW and moved RW Ol' Forester to 2LW.

 

Weirdly they have actual Left Wings, Right Wings, and Centers on the 3 and 4 lines - but none of them are $2.65M healthy scratch Noah Cates.

 

[radoran]

Just now, JR Ewing said:

 

I know that everybody around here knows this, but... Why would you ask a teenaged rookie to play on his offwing while he's just trying to break into the league?

 

Now do "why is the 18 year old playing second line center between two right wings in his second professional game ever?"

 

#newera

 

[JR Ewing]

Just now, radoran said:

 

Now do "why is the 18 year old playing second line center between two right wings in his second professional game ever?"

 

#newera

 

 

Boy oh boy, that sounds a lot like early Decade of Darkness in Edmonton. I can't lie.

 

[Howie58]

11 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Dailyfaceoff has Couturier as 3C. B-b-b-b-bennie and the Jett is 2C.

 

They also have moved Konecny back to 2RW and moved RW Ol' Forester to 2LW.

 

Weirdly they have actual Left Wings, Right Wings, and Centers on the 3 and 4 lines - but none of them are $2.65M healthy scratch Noah Cates.

 

Jeepers...8 million for a 3C.  Yeah....baby.  The fourth line has some spunk and ability.  But if I believe the pundits, Poehling hasn't looked good so far.  Let's see.  

 

If this is a make or break year for Frost, playing him at number 1 provides no excuses.  We see what he can do with it.

 

[radoran]

16 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

Boy oh boy, that sounds a lot like early Decade of Darkness in Edmonton. I can't lie.

 

Oh, we're approaching Decade Two over here - or Six if you listen to @flyercanuck 

 

[Buffalo Rick]

2 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

 

PDO is a measure of puck luck, essentially, and is Save Percentage + Shooting Percentage. 100 is average, and there is a strong tendency to be around that 100 mark as the games pile up. For awhile, teams can win games despite being heavily out-chanced, and they can win games where they are heavily out-chanced, but in the end, things come around to where they should.

 

-Am I happy that they're 0-3? Not at all. Would I be happy if they were 3-0, but were getting by on short-term good luck and a goalie standing on his head? Not at all.

-The coach took over a team that was 2-13, and brought them to a pair of eight game winning streaks and a 16-game winning streak before losing in game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals? You think his job is in deep trouble when his team has been out-playing the opposition, but the goaltending has been bad? Not yet; and not close.

 

Well I did not see the games and I know all too well you can outplay and out shoot a team and still wind up on the wrong end on the scoreboard.  So I’ll just assume some guys may not have gotten going yet and wait for a larger sample size.  I’m sure they will turn things around at some point like last year.  After all, McDavid is playing I assume.

[pilldoc]

59 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

 

I know that everybody around here knows this, but... Why would you ask a teenaged rookie to play on his offwing while he's just trying to break into the league?

 

56 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Now do "why is the 18 year old playing second line center between two right wings in his second professional game ever?"

 

#newera

 

[JR Ewing]

40 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Oh, we're approaching Decade Two over here - or Six if you listen to @flyercanuck 

 

 

I get that they haven't been moving forward, but I'm talking about a literal decade out of the playoffs, four first overall picks in six years, etc. The things you're talking about (18-yr olds in the NHL, playing teenagers out of their natural position, etc) are the same sorts of things I saw the Oilers doing when they fancied themselves the smartest men in the room.

 

My hope is that you all know that I'm not trolling when I say that; it's a really bad sign, and those are just flat-out loser moves.

 

[pilldoc]

15 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

My hope is that you all know that I'm not trolling when I say that; it's a really bad sign, and those are just flat-out loser moves.

of course not… as I have mentioned before you are well respected here and considered a good friend.  Many of appreciate your hockey knowledge….

so no… don’t worry about it. You are good  

[Buffalo Rick]

Edmonton vs Flyers.  Tomorrow my boys at Pittsburgh, a team I can’t figure out but we have a good chance to bury them