Philadelphia Flyers offseason 2024

[radoran]

13 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Well it was certainly exacerbated by the trading of the literal backbones of your offense.

 

And the three firsts (2 plus Sbisa) and Lupul to get Pronger...

 

All in all, a true Hall of Fame worthy masterwork of GMing.

 

[OccamsRazor]

4 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

And the three firsts (2 plus Sbisa) and Lupul to get Pronger...

 

All in all, a true Hall of Fame worthy masterwork of GMing.

 

 

I think just my opinion making the playoffs that year is the only thing that saved Holmgren's job.

 

Nothing but a hunch to back that up with.

 

Imagine if they didn't make the playoffs and Holmgren stepped down or was sent packing.

[radoran]

10 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

Imagine if they didn't make the playoffs and Holmgren stepped down or was sent packing.

 

Hextall was still two years away and Fletcher was in Minny.

 

Re-created video of the C-Suite at the Big Bank Building...

 

[SCFlyguy]

14 hours ago, radoran said:

 

And the three firsts (2 plus Sbisa) and Lupul to get Pronger...

 

All in all, a true Hall of Fame worthy masterwork of GMing.

 

You forgot the best part: Holmgren misreading the CBA and not realizing the lengthy extension he gave to 34 year old Pronger would be considered a 35+ contract because it did not start until Pronger was 35, which meant that the cap hit could not be removed by retirement, sending him to the minors, etc.

[flyer4ever]

I think I've said this before in this chat room, I wish that Dumb and Dumber would just come out and say we are happy to be the land of broken toys, we are happy to not challenge for a Cup run, and we don't care what anyone else thinks. 

There really is no other explanation for repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again, with no consequences. They appear to be untouchable.

Used to be if you banged your head against the wall enough times it would start to hurt. Apparently the diabetes and the bike accident have completely numbed them to pain.

[radoran]

7 minutes ago, flyer4ever said:

There really is no other explanation for repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again, with no consequences.

 

Consequences!? They put Holmgren into the Flyers Hall of Fame. No, seriously.

 

The actual architect of the least successful period of franchise history, the least successful (winning %) coach, and a player who had 30 goals once and averages out as a 22 goal/50 point player.

 

Hall of Fame and Senior Hockey Advisor.

 

[SCFlyguy]

Well, it's not like the Flyers have the history of success of franchises like, *checks notes*, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Colorado Avalanche and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

[flyercanuck]

20 hours ago, radoran said:

They put Holmgren into the Flyers Hall of Fame. No, seriously.

 

Pretty sure Tortsie makes it solely on last season, when they almost made the playoffs. 

 

Watch your head, the bar is set low in Flyertown.

[pilldoc]

On 8/16/2024 at 9:13 AM, flyer4ever said:

I think I've said this before in this chat room, I wish that Dumb and Dumber would just come out and say we are happy to be the land of broken toys, we are happy to not challenge for a Cup run, and we don't care what anyone else thinks. 

There really is no other explanation for repeating the same mistakes over and over and over again, with no consequences. They appear to be untouchable.

Used to be if you banged your head against the wall enough times it would start to hurt. Apparently the diabetes and the bike accident have completely numbed them to pain.

 

On 8/16/2024 at 9:25 AM, radoran said:

 

Consequences!? They put Holmgren into the Flyers Hall of Fame. No, seriously.

 

The actual architect of the least successful period of franchise history, the least successful (winning %) coach, and a player who had 30 goals once and averages out as a 22 goal/50 point player.

 

Hall of Fame and Senior Hockey Advisor.

 

 

And this is why I no longer have an emotional attachment to this team ........

[pilldoc]

Here is where I have a problem with the Flyers and what they did and did not do during the off season and what they did and did not do at the 2024 draft.
 

The 2023-2024 Flyers are a classic example of a low-skill team with results driven by hard work. In their second full season under the direction of head coach John Tortorella, the Flyers consistently outworked opposing teams—including teams far more talented than their own. One of the key drivers to outworking their opponents was shot suppression. The Flyers finished ranked 2nd in this metric by allowing just 27.1 shots against per game. (only the Hurricanes allowed fewer shots) But it is important to realize that the Flyers don’t suppress shots solely by possessing the puck. Looking at some of the stats, unlike the Hurricanes, Panthers, Kings (to name a few), the Flyers last year reduce the number of shots their goalies see by blocking a large fraction of the shot attempts by the opposing teams. Here is the important take away ….This approach to shot suppression is very different from the approach of most teams.
 

To see this more clearly, the data points other have calculated out use the following metric: USATA/SATA. So what the hell is this metric? Simple … It’s the total number of shots attempts faced by a team that were not blocked divided by the total number of shots attempts faced by a team. The article calculated it out for us and all teams.

As it turns out, the league average for this metric is 0.7122. So what does this mean? It’s telling us that about 29% (or, 1 - 0.7122) of all shot attempts in the NHL get blocked before they have a chance to be labeled as shots on goal or as missed shots (the only two other possible outcomes for a shot attempt).
 

So where did the Flyers fall? The Flyers USATA/SATA value is the lowest in the league at 0.6566; put another way, the Flyers blocked nearly 35% of the shot attempts generated by the opposing teams. This is a case of statistics where it’s best to put the data in the context of standard deviations. That is, just how far removed from the general population is this Philadelphia shot blocking value? It turns out that the rate at which the Flyers block shots (under Tortorella) is 3.1 standard deviations from the norm—and for those who crave and understand statistics ….that’s massive and unusual.  For context the next closest team in shot blocking was the Vegas Knights at a 1.8 standard deviation.

So most would say …Who cares how the Flyers suppress shots as long as they are doing it, right? Well ….not exactly. The Flyers’ approach to play requires enormous dedication and hard work. It’s tiring; it’s painful; and, over the long haul, it’s unsustainable. This is where injuries occur.
 

One reason the Flyers play this way is because they simply do not have the talent to keep up with their opponents (if they did, they wouldn’t need to block so many shot attempts because there would be far fewer shot attempts that required blocking).  Most of us already knew that, but the point here is how statistics back this thought process up.

So the question begs ….just where would the Flyers land in the league rankings for shots allowed if they blocked shot attempts at the league average rate? If you run the math, you end up with the Flyers allowing approximately 29.2 shots against per game (instead of 27.1).  Instead of finishing the season ranked 2nd in shot suppression, the Flyers drop to (a still respectable) 10th overall finish. The point of all of this is that the Flyers are a strong puck possession team—by the numbers.
 

BUT …. And you knew there had to be a but, it’s important to understand that this result is due, in part, to a Tortorella-inspired mirage. The Flyers excel in every aspect of the game that requires hard work. There is nothing wrong with that.  Many of wanted this team to work and Torts is doing just that. They suppress shots like nearly no other team; they block shots at a rate other teams can’t even sniff; and they kill penalties with 83.4% success (ranked 4^th by the way).
 

I may bitch and moan about this team and lack of talent, but that level of dedication to achieve these results should be applauded.   So why are many of us still PO’d at the organizations level of management?
 

Unfortunately for both us as fans the Flyers, a large part of the game of hockey still requires a high level of skill—a trait the Flyers lack. Again something many of us on here already know ….this team lacks high level of skill.  

Michkov may help to that regard, but who else on this team would others across the league recognize as high end skill?   Coots? (is now 32 and after major surgery and a SH% of 6.3 over his last 100 games?) TK? (Tk is now 27 and as general NHL stats dictate, should be at his prime, yet has never reached 70 pts for a season) Tippet?  Farabee? Foerster?
 

So let’s see what are the results of a team that plays hard but lacks skill? Despite ranking 4th in shot production, they rank 27th in goal production. Despite ranking 2nd in shot suppression, they rank 18th in goal suppression. And their power play, which is likely the part of the game in which skill matters far more than effort, ranks dead last with an anemic 12.2% conversion rate.
 

Here is some interesting food for thought ….This Flyers’ power play posted the 18th lowest conversion rate going back through the 1977-1978 season when the NHL first began tracking this data.
 

Were the 2023-2024 Flyers unlucky? Maybe. Their ability to convert shots into goals at even strength (tEVSH%) was just 7.65%. Their ability to prevent shots against from turning into goals against (tEVSV%) was just 0.895. These numbers rank 29th and 32nd, respectively. That’s the trouble with a team with many unskilled players—it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish bad luck from a lack of talent.
 

At the end of the day, the Flyers finished with 87 points and a goal differential of -27. I sincerely appreciate the hard work ….however …this team needs talent.  Obviously, with the CAP space the way it is there was nothing to be done this year.  Some will disagree with me, but this team needs to build through the draft.  So all this hard work got them to be again a middling team at the draft.  I’m coming around the Luchenko pick, but I still disagree with it.  There were higher skilled players available …no fell to them … and they choose a player who has the ceiling of a 2C?  I am seriously trying to give DB and company the benefit of the doubt.
 

Look it suck what happened with the Gauthier situation … I’m sure there more to the story than him just being a perceived self-entitled prick.
 

The Flyers have likely had the quietest offseason of all 32 NHL teams. They bought out Cam Atkinson’s contract and Felix Sandstrom walked as a free agent to sign a deal with the Buffalo Sabres. The Flyers signed free-agent Anthony Richard but he is unlikely to be on the NHL roster on opening night.  Now many of knew this was going to happen so this should not be a surprise.
 

Again, as a gentle reminder the Flyers posted a tEVSH% of 7.65% during the 2023-2024 season. (this was good for 29^th in the league)n as the league average was 8.9%. Their power play, which will have the same coach and mostly the same personnel, except with the addition Michkov, posted the 18th worth conversion rate in NHL history at 12.2% during the 2023-2024 season.

 

If these results were influenced by bad luck, then we’d expect to see some natural rebounds for several Flyers in the coming season. If these results are a consequence of a lack of talent on the roster and or poor coaching, it’s going to be another ugly year. We should know within the first 25 or so games.
 

This year really is, IMHO, a turning point for the Flyers.  They NEED to know THIS YEAR, what they have in Foerster, Farabee, Brink, et al.

 

I still believe the likes of either Zeev Buium or Konsta Helenius would have been better, but that is water under the bridge.  I will hold my breath on Luchenko who some liken him to a Nick Suzucki type player.  If I am wrong, I will happily eat crow. 

 

I know the Flyers have multiple early draft picks next year and the CAP will open up tremendously in 2 years. 
 

Anyway …. Sorry for the novel.

(special thanks to Left Wing Lock for the Stats)

[radoran]

26 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

The Flyers’ approach to play requires enormous dedication and hard work. It’s tiring; it’s painful; and, over the long haul, it’s unsustainable.

 

This approach can also beat more talented teams on a random day ending in y during the regular season.

 

Winning four in a playoff round, much less 16 in a Cup run is a totally different thing, as we have seen over the past decade.

 

Great post, btw.

[OccamsRazor]

I really hope the Kolosov thing can be resolved. We'll know soon i guess when KHL season starts.

 

I can't say for sure but i bet the kid thought he was going to come in and spend one year at most in the AHL and then off to the NHL to backup.

 

And i can see that as a reasonable goal.

 

But once they inked Fedotov to a 2 year deal it might have made him mad knowing unless injury occurred he had no direct path to the backup duty no less.

 

Best case Kolosov comes over and shows the Flyers need to move a goalie by this trade deadline or at next draft or some time in the next year but as of now with him needing to prove a lot not much sense worrying about the 3rd goalie in the system as of now.

 

if nothing else these pieces could be put in a deal to acquire some of the ones they need.

 

Danny Jones needs to be training on NHL 23 in his down time...las time i played that it was pretty challenging.

 

I guess when the time is right i will fork over the $$$$ because i don't want to have to read about Michkov i have to watch this now...

[mojo1917]

21 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

We'll know soon i guess when KHL season starts.

I guess we could look at the Dynamo Minsk roster and see if Kolosov is on it.

I'm not doing that btw. 

 

[OccamsRazor]

6 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

I guess we could look at the Dynamo Minsk roster and see if Kolosov is on it.

I'm not doing that btw. 

 

 

Sure we could the truth will be out shortly.

 

I'll just wait no need to worry...

[OccamsRazor]

7 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

I guess we could look at the Dynamo Minsk roster and see if Kolosov is on it.

I'm not doing that btw. 

 

 

Danny Jones reported he has changed agents so maybe this move will shed some light on the whole situation and hopefully smooth things over. We'll see.

[pilldoc]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5672796/2024/08/06/nhl-front-office-confidence-rankings-2024/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=1067635

 

So just where do the Flyers rank when it comes time to determine how much trust/confidence various FO across the league have.  As suspected the Flyers are on the bottom of middle of the the road. 

 

It is interesting to see that there is a 55% increase in confidence from the fan base as compared to last year.

 

As you can see, as compared from last year, the Flyers FO managed to gain 4 spots up from last year.  Some of the comments fans submitted for the article ...

 

“I’m worried they are conflating building a competitive culture with the team being good, and sacrificing a lot of long-term value by being too good during their rebuilding years. But a huge improvement on talent evaluation/creativity over last few regimes.”

 

“Briere’s tenure hasn’t been perfect, but all in all it has been drastically better than the days of Chuck Fletcher.”

 

"A few years ago the Flyers were at the very bottom of this list, forcing a new era of orange to take over. Things are starting to get better both in fan and public sentiment, but there’s still a lot of work to be done — work that was made more difficult by Philadelphia’s shocking run to 11th in the East last season.

 

That run put the Flyers in a tough spot: An obviously rebuilding team at the deadline that was on track to make the playoffs. How the Flyers handled that spoke volumes about their ability to manage both short- and long-term goals simultaneously. They maintained a lot of their winning culture while still keeping an eye on the future with a minor selloff.

 

Some don’t think the Flyers went far enough in that pursuit and feel vindicated by the late-season plunge that unsurprisingly pushed the Flyers out of the playoffs. In a more pessimistic sense, the Flyers tried to have it both ways and got stuck in no man’s land."

 

(I think this sums up the opinions many of us on here have ....  The Flyers want to win and rebuild at the same time, which in itself is extremely challenging to do ....  no man's land ....perfect analogy....)

 

"It’s a difficult balance to strike given the position the Flyers were in, and it means the Travis Konecny extension could be seen as the right move for the wrong team.

 

Aside from that, there were also mixed reactions to the 2024 draft — especially in the face of the euphoria surrounding Matvei Michkov. After hitting that home run, there was some disappointment with the team trading down from Zeev Buium to select Jett Luchanko. That helps explain a draft ranking that’s far lower than how the public views things."

 

 

Edited August 19 by pilldoc

[flyer4ever]

On 8/17/2024 at 12:15 PM, pilldoc said:

Here is where I have a problem with the Flyers and what they did and did not do during the off season and what they did and did not do at the 2024 draft.
 

The 2023-2024 Flyers are a classic example of a low-skill team with results driven by hard work. In their second full season under the direction of head coach John Tortorella, the Flyers consistently outworked opposing teams—including teams far more talented than their own. One of the key drivers to outworking their opponents was shot suppression. The Flyers finished ranked 2nd in this metric by allowing just 27.1 shots against per game. (only the Hurricanes allowed fewer shots) But it is important to realize that the Flyers don’t suppress shots solely by possessing the puck. Looking at some of the stats, unlike the Hurricanes, Panthers, Kings (to name a few), the Flyers last year reduce the number of shots their goalies see by blocking a large fraction of the shot attempts by the opposing teams. Here is the important take away ….This approach to shot suppression is very different from the approach of most teams.
 

To see this more clearly, the data points other have calculated out use the following metric: USATA/SATA. So what the hell is this metric? Simple … It’s the total number of shots attempts faced by a team that were not blocked divided by the total number of shots attempts faced by a team. The article calculated it out for us and all teams.

As it turns out, the league average for this metric is 0.7122. So what does this mean? It’s telling us that about 29% (or, 1 - 0.7122) of all shot attempts in the NHL get blocked before they have a chance to be labeled as shots on goal or as missed shots (the only two other possible outcomes for a shot attempt).
 

So where did the Flyers fall? The Flyers USATA/SATA value is the lowest in the league at 0.6566; put another way, the Flyers blocked nearly 35% of the shot attempts generated by the opposing teams. This is a case of statistics where it’s best to put the data in the context of standard deviations. That is, just how far removed from the general population is this Philadelphia shot blocking value? It turns out that the rate at which the Flyers block shots (under Tortorella) is 3.1 standard deviations from the norm—and for those who crave and understand statistics ….that’s massive and unusual.  For context the next closest team in shot blocking was the Vegas Knights at a 1.8 standard deviation.

So most would say …Who cares how the Flyers suppress shots as long as they are doing it, right? Well ….not exactly. The Flyers’ approach to play requires enormous dedication and hard work. It’s tiring; it’s painful; and, over the long haul, it’s unsustainable. This is where injuries occur.
 

One reason the Flyers play this way is because they simply do not have the talent to keep up with their opponents (if they did, they wouldn’t need to block so many shot attempts because there would be far fewer shot attempts that required blocking).  Most of us already knew that, but the point here is how statistics back this thought process up.

So the question begs ….just where would the Flyers land in the league rankings for shots allowed if they blocked shot attempts at the league average rate? If you run the math, you end up with the Flyers allowing approximately 29.2 shots against per game (instead of 27.1).  Instead of finishing the season ranked 2nd in shot suppression, the Flyers drop to (a still respectable) 10th overall finish. The point of all of this is that the Flyers are a strong puck possession team—by the numbers.
 

BUT …. And you knew there had to be a but, it’s important to understand that this result is due, in part, to a Tortorella-inspired mirage. The Flyers excel in every aspect of the game that requires hard work. There is nothing wrong with that.  Many of wanted this team to work and Torts is doing just that. They suppress shots like nearly no other team; they block shots at a rate other teams can’t even sniff; and they kill penalties with 83.4% success (ranked 4^th by the way).
 

I may bitch and moan about this team and lack of talent, but that level of dedication to achieve these results should be applauded.   So why are many of us still PO’d at the organizations level of management?
 

Unfortunately for both us as fans the Flyers, a large part of the game of hockey still requires a high level of skill—a trait the Flyers lack. Again something many of us on here already know ….this team lacks high level of skill.  

Michkov may help to that regard, but who else on this team would others across the league recognize as high end skill?   Coots? (is now 32 and after major surgery and a SH% of 6.3 over his last 100 games?) TK? (Tk is now 27 and as general NHL stats dictate, should be at his prime, yet has never reached 70 pts for a season) Tippet?  Farabee? Foerster?
 

So let’s see what are the results of a team that plays hard but lacks skill? Despite ranking 4th in shot production, they rank 27th in goal production. Despite ranking 2nd in shot suppression, they rank 18th in goal suppression. And their power play, which is likely the part of the game in which skill matters far more than effort, ranks dead last with an anemic 12.2% conversion rate.
 

Here is some interesting food for thought ….This Flyers’ power play posted the 18th lowest conversion rate going back through the 1977-1978 season when the NHL first began tracking this data.
 

Were the 2023-2024 Flyers unlucky? Maybe. Their ability to convert shots into goals at even strength (tEVSH%) was just 7.65%. Their ability to prevent shots against from turning into goals against (tEVSV%) was just 0.895. These numbers rank 29th and 32nd, respectively. That’s the trouble with a team with many unskilled players—it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to distinguish bad luck from a lack of talent.
 

At the end of the day, the Flyers finished with 87 points and a goal differential of -27. I sincerely appreciate the hard work ….however …this team needs talent.  Obviously, with the CAP space the way it is there was nothing to be done this year.  Some will disagree with me, but this team needs to build through the draft.  So all this hard work got them to be again a middling team at the draft.  I’m coming around the Luchenko pick, but I still disagree with it.  There were higher skilled players available …no fell to them … and they choose a player who has the ceiling of a 2C?  I am seriously trying to give DB and company the benefit of the doubt.
 

Look it suck what happened with the Gauthier situation … I’m sure there more to the story than him just being a perceived self-entitled prick.
 

The Flyers have likely had the quietest offseason of all 32 NHL teams. They bought out Cam Atkinson’s contract and Felix Sandstrom walked as a free agent to sign a deal with the Buffalo Sabres. The Flyers signed free-agent Anthony Richard but he is unlikely to be on the NHL roster on opening night.  Now many of knew this was going to happen so this should not be a surprise.
 

Again, as a gentle reminder the Flyers posted a tEVSH% of 7.65% during the 2023-2024 season. (this was good for 29^th in the league)n as the league average was 8.9%. Their power play, which will have the same coach and mostly the same personnel, except with the addition Michkov, posted the 18th worth conversion rate in NHL history at 12.2% during the 2023-2024 season.

 

If these results were influenced by bad luck, then we’d expect to see some natural rebounds for several Flyers in the coming season. If these results are a consequence of a lack of talent on the roster and or poor coaching, it’s going to be another ugly year. We should know within the first 25 or so games.
 

This year really is, IMHO, a turning point for the Flyers.  They NEED to know THIS YEAR, what they have in Foerster, Farabee, Brink, et al.

 

I still believe the likes of either Zeev Buium or Konsta Helenius would have been better, but that is water under the bridge.  I will hold my breath on Luchenko who some liken him to a Nick Suzucki type player.  If I am wrong, I will happily eat crow. 

 

I know the Flyers have multiple early draft picks next year and the CAP will open up tremendously in 2 years. 
 

Anyway …. Sorry for the novel.

(special thanks to Left Wing Lock for the Stats)

Thanks for your deep dive into the stats, interesting August hockey news.

The Flyers currently have no early draft picks next year. They have multiple middle to late 1st round and 2nd round picks. There is a BIG difference, as we are all aware. They are good assets though, perhaps we will see some creativity by Danny B in the coming months. 

Also, my reference to dumb and dumber is not a Briere and Jones thing. It's aimed at REC and Homer.

[pilldoc]

9 minutes ago, flyer4ever said:

The Flyers currently have no early draft picks next year. They have multiple middle to late 1st round and 2nd round picks.

 

Ask and you shall receive .......

 

 

So depending where the Flyers finish, I would anticipate both the Colorado / Edmonton picks to be 20+.  (Both these picks are top 12 protected)

 

The good news, depending on how poorly the Ducks and Blue Jackets finish, the Flyers could be picking in the very top of the 2nd round.  Certainly enough ammo to move up if the right deal could be had.

 

[flyercanuck]

I think a lot of those comments are how a lot of us on here feel. All those Cs sound about right. Nowhere near a great franchise, closer to the drecks of the league. 

 

 

Philly has lots of picks, but as flyer4ever mentioned, none are early. Picking early in the 2nd round isn't picking early, it's just picking early after the great players are all gone.

So we'll likely end up with a whole pile more depth to go with the pile of depth we already have. Which, going forward, should keep us right in the middle of the pack. Yay.

Edited August 19 by flyercanuck

[pilldoc]

5 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Philly has lots of picks, but as flyer4ever mentioned, none are early. Picking early in the 2nd round isn't picking early, it's just picking early after the great players are all gone.

So we'll likely end up with a whole pile more depth to go with the pile of depth we already have. Which, going forward, should keep us right in the middle of the pack. Yay.

 

As I mentioned above .... maybe package some of those picks to move up?

[flyercanuck]

36 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

As I mentioned above .... maybe package some of those picks to move up?

 

I get that, but you have to have a dance partner. It'd be a lot simpler to just pick early. 

[pilldoc]

28 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I get that, but you have to have a dance partner. It'd be a lot simpler to just pick early. 

Completely agree on all points….

[SCFlyguy]

Trading up also puts your assets in fewer picks.  How about multiple high picks like Chicago or Anaheim, instead of multiple low picks?

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

I think a lot of those comments are how a lot of us on here feel. All those Cs sound about right. Nowhere near a great franchise, closer to the drecks of the league. 

 

 

Philly has lots of picks, but as flyer4ever mentioned, none are early. Picking early in the 2nd round isn't picking early, it's just picking early after the great players are all gone.

So we'll likely end up with a whole pile more depth to go with the pile of depth we already have. Which, going forward, should keep us right in the middle of the pack. Yay.

Three firsts, three seconds and some prospects who might not even crack the roster (Tuomaala, Andrae). There's lots of moving pieces there to seeing a deal for something very legitimate. Would love to see them in on someone like Askarov. 

[OccamsRazor]

A little understanding from this clip...

 

 

Enjoy