Howie58

Occ and Colleagues:

The elapsed time here makes me think it goes beyond benchmark signings.  Maybe Provo's camp is stuck on a long-term deal.  I hoped this would be done a month or ago.  It doesn't give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.  

36 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

No. And it shouldn't come to that and besides what do you take back for a 22 year old number one defenseman???

 

 

And again i said no. If he is moved it better be for a gross over payment back...a top line forward and then some...but i prefer to get the kid signed and make him the cornerstone of the defense for many years to come. To me there isn't any other option.

Occ:

I hope you are right.  You could say that last season was an aberration, but I would love to see a bridge deal to know we are getting the real deal.  By the way, there might be someone out there willing to overpay.  Granted, our two recent defensive signings come off the books quite soon, but overall, with a flat cap (it seems) in the offing, I wonder if we want to commit a huge chunk of cap to a handful of players.  We keep talking about how good our young talent is.  Fine.  How the heck do we pay for them down the road if we are stuck with "high fixed costs?"  

OK...putting aside the possibility that outside signings might drive the O and B-Provo hookup, I wonder if future or perceived salary cap issues are driving the no-sign.  Would we take a first and prospects for Provo if indeed the cap ^*hit hit the fan.  I am getting uncomfortable with the length of time this has taken and have to wonder if there comes a fail safe point where resigning becomes a mess. I like Provo, but if we really believe our D-corps has good prospects, I say fine to a trade.  I can live with a bridge deal for 4-5 mill short-term bridge.  But if we end up paying 7-8 million for someone who may or may not be a first-pair defender (17-18 versus 18-19) I say auf wiedersehen.  Our commitments to Giroux, Voracek, JVR, and Hayes, are noose-like as it is--do we want five players to eat almost half our cap?

I guess the optimism versus pessimism "theme" runs like a river through the thread.  On the optimistic side, I concur the Flyers' "human capital" may be the best we've seen in years.  On the down side, I wonder how long it will take to gel?  I agree with Elmatus regarding parity in the division.  What can't be denied is that we were under .500 in our division and were better off when we were outshot:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/PHI/2019_situational.html

That tells me AV has to get these folks focused on quality shots, and that Fletcher is correct to assert that a good offense (keeping possession in the attack zone) is the best defense in the New NHL.

Another unknown:  I think Hart will be fine.  Elliott, as many have posted, may be fine if used in fewer than 30 games.  But if either of these gentlemen has goes down, the quality of "Goalie 3" will be critical to our performance. I suspect Lyon is next in line but that may change. 

Bottom line--I will go with 3 or 4 in the Metro.  And sadly, I don't see a playoff win.  That doesn't mean we won't be better.  But I suspect that others will be as well, and I am not sure how pieces will fall together before Black Friday.

Let's go Flyers,

Howie

5 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Hmmm...the actual order may be too jumbled at this stage to determine exactly, but from where I sit, it looks like the Caps and Pens SHOULD still be the class of the division and playing for the top spot... and yea, those waiting for the Pens to fall apart may just have to keep waiting a bit longer.

At the bottom, sadly, I see the Columbus Blue Jackets, along with the Rangers. Jackets simply lost too much and I don't think replaced what they lost with enough. Korpisalo replacing Bob? Nyquist replacing Panarin? Yea...exactly.
Plus, will Wennberg FINALLY emerge? Can Atkinson without Panarin be as successful? Just too many questions in a competitive division.

Rangers will continue their rebuild, and while it is going nicely, many of their players still have some growing to do and I can't see them becoming competitive just yet...at least not playoff competitive.

So that leaves the Canes, Devils, Isles, and Flyers in the middle of the division.
I like the Devils' off season, and I think both they (if they can get their goaltending sorted) and the Isles can make a case for the 3rd spot.

Canes will be hard pressed to duplicate what they did last season as I think the goaltending tandem of Mrazek and McBackup played WAY over their heads....can they do it again (Mrazek), only this time insert James "Bounced Around" Reimer into the equation as well.
They do have a nice attack however....

Flyers DO seem to have the goaltending sorted (if Hart can continue to build on what he started, and the backups just do their jobs), but may have questions elsewhere in the lineup...good talent, no doubt, but which ones will emerge..and will they emerge enough to be of any consequence for a playoff push?
I think Philly and the Rangers actually have a similar development curve, and since I think the Rangers still need more time to develop players and iron out other issues, so do the Flyers...although having a Giroux, Voracek, Couturier as veteran forwards gives them a nice bump in the forward ranks.

So there you have it, @Howie58 , Sir....I have your Flyers anywhere from the 4th position to possibly the 6th for now....but hey, anything can happen from now till the start of the season and players still haven't all settled into where they will be...and breakouts can ALWAYS happen.

Dear TPG:

Thoughts:

1) Agreed--Ranger, Panthers, and Flyers will be interesting Eastern benchmarks;

2) Yep, intangibles matter; and

3)  I see the O and B and marginal playoff team at best, not because they are "bad," but in this league of parity, others are "good" or "better."

Peace,

Howie

Greetings:

I saw this post and thought Gabrych's rank order is on point. Washington and Carolina are probably going to duke it out for the top.  Pitt is strong.  Where we end may be predicated on how well (poorly) we start with a new coach, system, and defense.  Sounding like a broken record, I see a "pre-post" Black Friday season split.  AV may be good, but even he needs time to juggle parts and impart a system.

https://broadstreetbuzz.com/2019/08/02/where-philadelphia-flyers-rank-metro-paper/

As for playoffs, my guess is an eighth year without a series win, which is appalling for this franchise and presence in a "new" NHL in which retooling should only take a few seasons. That said, this is the beginning of a new era with the O and B, and I hope it begins on a respectable note.  

3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

He isn't going anywhere....and i know you know that i know that you know this ain't happening. 

While I hope you are right, I suspect stranger things have happened.

This is a long standoff. Each passing day makes me think we are closer to a trade.  

Writ large, the "Founders" have moved on.  I think Holmgren's 2008 ECF team was testimony to thinking on the fly.  The 2010 team was "super fluke" and didn't lead to any long-term nucleus that was anywhere near elite.  Now we hope/expect that Hextall's pool of young talent is as good as we think.  Holmgren wasn't responsible for that.  But he did allow the stockpiling to go on.  

10 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

Honestly, @Howie58, I don't think the Flyer fanbase has a ton to be concerned about at this stage of the game.
Sure, the signings haven't been blockbusters, but really, did you want the Flyers to make a splash for the sake of making a splash?

I still think they are progressing pretty well and putting faith in the younger players that they have.
If you want to be concerned, I'd go with still having Konecny and Provorov without contracts....but even those two, I can't see the Flyers not getting something done with them.

Out are MacDonald, Schlemko, and Gudas on defense and in are Niskanen and Braun. 
That's not bad at all for improving, even if only marginally, the blue line.

And that also means the younger defensemen will likely be given bigger responsibilities...hence why I think Provorov will get a nice deal done soon.

 

As for the rest of the Metro, sure, some teams have made some nice gains too (Rangers and Devils especially), but even they have big, big question marks, and their signings may not even pan out for them.

 

To me, the biggest deficiencies of the Flyers over the last several years has been in goal and on defense.
Carter Hart has already proven last season he can be the answer in goal.... guys like Elliot and Lyon, they are strictly there to give Hart some games off.
And now, the blue line seems to be rounding into a bit better shape with smarter players, better puck movers, and the youth finally starting to emerge.

 

Not saying you as a Flyers fan shouldn't expect more, but I'd hold off on the concern right now.
Barring their offense taking a complete nosedive, I'd expect Philly to play pretty competitive games with the roster they currently have.....and things may not even be done "simmering" if you get my drift...some more bodies may yet exit, with others coming in.
As long as no complete airhead contracts are signed, I think the Flyers are doing alright so far.
 

That is a thoughtful post, Madam TFG.  I hope you are right.  The A affiliate is being stocked with fringe NHL'ers, which seems OK.  I was a senior in high school during the last Cup.  It's unclear if I will live to see another.  

6 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

I thought the Flyers big splash was last week?

 

JR--I think it was a "semi-big" signing but candidly, I'd have tried some of the youngins out before getting Hayes here for an eternity.  But...life goes on.

Greetings:

Today's signings and trades leave me concerned that in relative and absolute terms, we aren't progressing, unless our youngins really materialize in a year or two.  While Pittsburgh may be taking a step backward, the rest of the Metro is advancing.  Let's hope I'm wrong.  

Greetings:

Maybe Trader Fletch decides to flip him for whatever reason.  Ivan is a great kid, but FletchMeister may not feel any kinship.  If team X offers a first and prospect/two, I listen.  

I have to agree with an article in the New York Post that says, in essence, that the Devils made the right call with Nico Hischier.  We wouldn't be making this deal if Patrick had made more progress (if that is possible).  Free Agency leads to this kind of stuff.

My "take" is that Fletcher is going with these deals to remake a team culture.  That transcends dollars and sense.  The length of term here is a bit frightening. But that is life in the New NHL and a Comcast ownership that was fed up with patience taking us nowhere.  

The one critique of this trade that made some sense is that Braun's advanced stats have been in decline, and that Fletcher might be hoping that he and Niskanen can have bounce back years.  That may be wishful thinking.

That said, both of these guys are solid and not on any long-term contract.  Agreed with others that somebody is going.  I hope it isn't Ghost.  Hagg is a shot-blocker but his stats aren't good and I have to wonder what he would fetch.   Morin....would another team want to inherit a "project" with injury-proneness?  Maybe we see a package deal.  Or Fletch flips one or more for a pick or order change?

Well, the "bias for action" seems to be taking hold.  We are on the book for one more season, so the the long-term consequences are not that great if this doesn't pan out.   With all the picks in our system, giving up a 41st isn't catastrophic. Yes, he was -14 last year, but that is a deviation from lifetime stats.  On face, we are going to start with a much better D than the one we ended last season with.

Well, one thing for sure:  We will have one less thing to bitch about on this board.  That is a blessing.

Writ large, I hope the franchise learns a lesson or two from this long-term ideal.  First, don't make long-term contracts based on 10-20 game tryouts.  Second, put past performance into contact.  A terrible Islanders team used AMac as a first or second pairing d-man out of necessity.  We thought he was really suited to that role.  He wasn't.  The rest is a very sad history.  

I wonder if someone picks him up down the road as a cheap spare for depth?

I wonder if this part of a Ghost trade departure?  He goes, and we have someone short-term to fill a gap until the youngins progress?

Normally I would say trading for a higher-cost, older player is screwy. But, we are changing paradigms/coach, so this will be allowed to pass my sniff test.  It is short-term on the pick up, and it allows a slot opening in coming years.  

The break from the past is probably a good thing.  Whether we are too harsh looking at Smith's output through "modern eyes" might be a discussion worth having.  Meanwhile, I agree that "America the Beautiful," or maybe Copland's "Fanfare for the Common Man," would be wonderful alternatives to the "Star Spangled Banner."  

Well, I guess he can make some semi-informed judgments prior to the trade deadline.  This is a "safe" bet.  

K-Squared:

That is a thoughtful post and I concur with your assessment.  I suspect we'd get a 1st and prospects if....salary cap reduction were the ultimate objective, along with growing youngins.

I concur 100% on the D issue and suspect our poor offense and drop-off in PP performance does, in part, reflect a coaching decision to play a "structured" (using Coach Dave's phrase) game to compensate for a D that couldn't control the neutral zone.  And yes--it is possible our 4th line would be something more than a "checking/energy line," and actually contribute offensively, something the elite squads do.  

Next year will be a transition year.  I could see two very distinct seasons: one that ends with Turkey Day, and one that starts at Turkey Day + 1.  The first half will be a lot of line and D pair experimentation.  The second may actually be a nucleus for the future.

Goal leaves me a bit befuddled. But we should probably do a separate thread on that.

Howie

I might be shocked too. He may be a Shane Doan-type who stays here as the face of the franchise.  But his consistent drop-off in points over the last four years has to worry our GM.  And I agree with Hayes--miracle aside, this team isn't elite for another 2-3 years.  At that point we are paying lots of dough for someone whose performance could be 2nd-3rd line-worthy.  Maybe a sense of "mortality" alters his thinking.  Martin St. Louis comes to mind. 

Here is a piece by Marcus Hayes of the Inquirer stating, in so many words, that Giroux is unlikely to be around for a Cup and his cap space could be deployed elsewhere.  Without saying yeah or nay on the trade, Giroux's benefit-cost calculus to the team will be a topic in the off-season to be determined in October and beyond.  

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20170410_Flyers_should_trade_Claude_Giroux___Marcus_Hayes.html

One thing I agree with--Simmonds is heir apparent for Captain.  

Howdy:

No shame in being a pillar.  

South Florida sports franchises other than the Heat have attendance problems. I suspect the high cost of living drains disposable income. And people here seem to support winners. But bad seasons end the love. 

One thing that might kill or deter relocation or new franchise in Canada is the state of the Canadian dollar. Two years ago it was a parity. Now its 80 cents!  Apparently that's hurt the salary cap along the way.  Don't worry, I think the Panthers are here to stay.  

Take care....

Howie