Howie58

I want to be candid--Howie58 is a half-glass empty guy.  That said, we have a lot of cap space tied up in forwards who may be past their prime.  The D is, as many of my friends of Italian-American background might say, "mezza, mezza."  Occ's figures above are kind of shocking but not surprising.  

On that score, let's not waste Provo or Myers' prime with mediocre forwards, the way we probably wasted Claude Giroux's and others. I think Fletch will have to act quickly.

As for the D, well, I suspect we aren't as hamstrung by contracts as we are up front.  I didn't realize that Hagg is out this year.  Yes, Niskanen has another year.  I suspect Ghost is given a shot to stick around up front but may be gone if there is no turnaround.  

Again, after a night of sleep and whatever, I am "venting" but also realistic.  AV and Fletcher have breathed some life into the franchise.  But we have to be realistic and this playoff season wasn't that inspiring.  Our PP problems and "other" cropped up under the prior coach, and that confirms we have a personnel issue more than a guidance one, though Bobby Clarke 16's take is also a factor.  

I will be curious to see how the press assesses this season.  They've been ripping a new one on the captain's underperformance.  I wonder what they will do with the team.  

My bottom line is that we may be at a big-time crossroads.   Hextall accumulated a lot of talent but it wasn't being deployed right.  I suspect Fletcher-AV is a step quicker and better.  But I don't want another 2008.  I might say that was actually the start of a deep funk from which we're just leaving.  Going eight years without a playoff series win means we were in a big ditch. 

Thinking about this playoff run brought back memories of 2008.  Some of you may recall that was the year after our worst season in history, when Hitchcock was fired after 8 games and Clarke resigned as GM.  So, in trots Paul Holmgren, and he works some trades (and eventually wins GM of the year), and Stevens appears to be a good hire.  We have a remarkable turnaround and go to the ECF.  It looked like we might have finally entered the "New NHL" in the post-strike era.  But....other than our fluke of a run in 2010, we really didn't gain traction as a franchise.

So, here we are 12 years later.  We have a new GM and a new coach.  But after this playoff run, I wonder if there is as much change as we think?  Yes, we seem to have a world-class goalie.  Our D is respectable.  But, a Montreal team that would not have made the playoffs in a traditional season extends us to six games and outscores us 13-11.  We showed gumption against the Isles.  But there are "Hakstolian" stats.  We win a bunch of faceoffs but it doesn't lead to high danger shots.  Our PP is impotent.  Our ability to drive play..meh.

Yes, we have some a stable of prospects, but they may or may not pan out.  As best I can tell, and others here are probably better at the analysis, it might be fair to say we don't have a first line.  I like Hayes, but he is not a MacKinnon or Barzal.  G and V are spent forces. I agree with others that JVR was probably not a great pickup. Coots and Laughton are competent but not game changers.  Our bottom six---a blur.  I suspect Grant and Thompson are gone, but I am not sure which youngins will take their place, if that really matters.  We need third or fourth lines that can add some offense, not simply stifle the opposition's. 

AV and his staff are probably the best we've had in ages.  But he can only coax so much out of people.  I hope some of our youngins turn into Barzals or Suzukis.  I am afraid that we will view this year as another 2008 if that doesn't happen.

Howie

1 hour ago, elmatus said:

This may be an unpopular opinion, but I actually think our dmen are a major reason why we're still in this. Sure, they're not all created equally, but Provo, Myers, and Niskanen in particular have bailed out the team more often than I can count, and while Sanheim has wavered a bit more, he also has been generally positive. That said, I do wish Braun would choose to take a walk outside the bubble and not be allowed back in for the rest of this. That would be nice.

Edited 1 hour ago by elmatus

I concur.  Stabilizing our D was one of Fletcher's major objectives in the off season.  I believe we went from 29th in GA last year, to 17th year.  That isn't great but it is a big, big improvement.  We wouldn't have gotten here without it.  Hopefully, our youngins grow because Niskanen isn't going to get better with age and I suspect Braun walks after this year. 

It's interesting--the bookies still have the Isles as favorites despite losing the last two.  JVR's performance has helped, and he's had some high chance attempts--even gone from -2 to Even.  

https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/nhl/islanders-flyers-game7-odds-pick-sep5-2020/

I would love to see Oskar score a game winner.  

35 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

An East Finals that, if it takes place, would be a rematch from the East Finals of 2004!

TFG:

I remember that series all too well.  It was a 7 game heroic effort.  Keith Primeau and Sami Kapanen almost carried us to victory.  I view that performance as the end of an era for the club.  It was pre-strike and probably the last physical, Old-Style Flyer club.  You could be very proud of that squad, even in defeat.  

Good win.  We showed some gumption.  That said, if we score an occasional power play, maybe we don't need overtime heroics.  

The team skated well.  Losing a two-goal lead is bothersome (second game in a row).  Boy, it was Suzuki last series, Barzal this series--quick shots in the danger zone, and we can't seem to contain it.  

Hart was fine.  Raffl is a good guy to have on board.  Laughton is core--a first rounder showing he was worth drafting. 

Food for thought--Oskar on for 17 mins; Ghost sitting out.  Hagg has three assists overall.

Here is a take on possible replacement if our Coots is out.  Raffl is the probable:

https://sports.yahoo.com/analyzing-sean-couturier-injury-situation-003953111.html

I have to believe our D will be "activated" bomb away.  It seems to be the only way we score.  My faith in the elders is limited.  

Once again, the O & B relied on a score via a bomb from the point being deflected.  Granted, a win is a win, but they can't score on the PP and this team's ability to score via danger zone has been limited in the series. I am glad they live to fight on, but this one was harder than it should have been.  I don't fault Carter Hart.  But our D is a marginal and our forwards aren't keeping the Isles bottled up.  

Greetings:

A heat map of shots made vs. score tells a lot about this game and series.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/philadelphia-flyers-new-york-islanders-2020083012/

We outshot them 38 to 33, but we had two long distance bombs make via screen/good deflection.  Moose faced difficult chances.  Turnovers aside, we were not in Greiss's face that much.  Without Moose's first, this could have been a lot worse. We needed a 6 on 5 to get our second.  Yikes. 

I agree with Boosh that our first line may have had its best game in this series, if not the playoffs.  But there was no payoff.

There is little more to say.  Again--the outshoot but underscore has been a theme of this team for the last few years.  But, as is the case in many things, quantity doesn't always equal quality, and Greiss did his job. 

1 hour ago, elmatus said:

If anyone wants some sort of silver lining... I hear a similarly downtrodden set of top guns out in Dallas have actually found a way to play some good hockey again.

Greetings:

I think Fletcher was brought in to be a man-of-action and wake up the franchise.  I think he has done that.  

Maybe V and G have turnarounds in the next year. Maybe they don't.  My concern is that we seem to have a first line that just doesn't match up well these days.  I would love to see a turnaround.  But time goes in one direction.  

Meanwhile, I just saw a scoreless first thanks to Moose--the Isles had 18 shots; we had 7.  As I said last night, there are "speed/skill" squads (TB, CBS, Carolina) we have a tough time with.  I am not saying we are incompetent.  But our ability to make hay in the offensive zone seems impaired.  We don't do well on PP.  And we can't finish.  During the Hakstol Era, we frequently outshot but underscored the opponent.  Now we have scoring droughts.  I think there's a pattern.  We need a Suzuki or two and hope that healthy Oskar and Nolan provide some punch. 

Let's remember that we struggled against a team that would not have made the playoffs under normal circumstances.  The round robin was a "warm up" that may have been misleading.  I agree with RJ that we have no "put the fear of God" players on offense.  We draft and/or trade for "solid" players with good "hockey IQ" but our power play and offense seem ineffective.

I will hold off on "post mortems" until the season ends but we are getting some clear indicators in this series of what we are facing down the road.  Fletcher stabilized the D with Braun and Niskanen.  That helped.  AV gets the most of what he has.  But that may not have been enough to get us into the "Elite" of the league, and sadly, our top line is probably aging out as we speak.  Not good.

Tonight's game is important on a lot of fronts but the most important may be what it says about '20-'21.

Greetings:

This was a systems mini-failure:

1. Carter looked a little less Carter-like than usual.  

2. Once again, Pitlick seemed like one of the few forwards who came to play or perhaps keep pace with an Islander club operating several gears faster than anything we could muster.

3.  Our top line is invisible. It's worse than giving up the late second goal.  They are not taking the war to the enemy.  I might even say, ala Pogo, they are the enemy...

4.  The O & B seemed energized for the first 10 minutes. Then they fizzled.  This reminded me of some our poor showings against Carolina, TB, or Columbus in recent years.  We get skated around and through. It was tough to watch. The end result wasn't a shock. 

Greetings:

I just saw this from earlier this PM.

https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/29754002/flyers-islanders-golden-knights-canucks-played-thursday

Best,

Howie

This series isn't over.  That said, we have gotten some signals.  1.  We really could use a Suzuki or two.  2.  Our "Big 5" may be playing small against stiff competition.  There may be many reasons behind number 2.  But if I were Chuck Fletcher (I think AV will do a great job with whatever clay he has to mold), there has to be some concern, particularly with Giroux, long-term.  With JVR, one could say that power forwards tend to fall off a cliff, and maybe he's done that. With G--hard to say.  All in, the Thompsons and Pitlicks seem more engaged than some of our big names.  Per Occ, they might not have finesse, but they seem to get the need for keeping the puck deep in your opponent's zone.  That may not score goals, but it keeps the opposition from doing so.  

Just now, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

I thought TK had a decent game today.  Hopefully, he is waking up.

Greetings:

At least he has some wheels.  He might have hit a post.  He will be limited by his pairings.  

I am glad Myers won it quickly.  He is growing up.

I only watched the last 1.5 periods. Seeing a team blow a 3 goal lead is no fun.  We can't keep up with their forwards.  Coots is Coots, and from my vantage, Hayes is our #1 Center, even if he isn't on the first line. But you go beyond those two, and I shake my head.  I thought Pitlick outplayed Giroux in terms of determination and smart puck choices.  The rest of our forwards--there just doesn't seem to be any fire or strong moves on the goal.  

4 hours ago, CoachX said:

i get all the observations about Giroux's effectiveness on the pp. Its predictable and easy to defend.

 

My problem is with that second unit. They act like a bunch of mangy cur dogs who just discovered an electric fence, anytime they get close to the blueline.

 

AHHHH! DON"T SHOCK ME!

 

Maybe if that unit was a little more cohesive, it would take some pressure off the top unit. This has been an issue for far too many seasons now

Greetings:

The outcome of this series may determine many things, not the least of which is the offensive creativity of our team.  The absence of scoring (we won a series and underscored the opponent vs. MTL) and the lousy power play are two sides of the same coin.  I am glad we signed Oscar to an extension.  I hope we get some Suzuki types in coming years. Our offense is boring.  I suspect we can shift this group around via a Wheel of Fortune and it might not change the outcome.  We will win if and only if we have tight forechecking and top 10% goaltending.  We had nine game winning streaks under Hakstol.  To AV's credit, we didn't have losing streaks as long.  He has done a lot with this squad.  But we may be seeing signs that chunks of the group aren't that effective in the offensive zone, leading to odd-man breaks for the opposition.  

10 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

Ghost for Suzuki

RJ:

That's an interesting thought. My gut says he stays until next year's trade deadline.  He might even be an unprotected player as salary dump and potential reclamation by Kraken.  

I don't see this as a defensive implosion as much as an offensive self-destruction.  Yes--our top line isn't generating any offense and this is a carryover from the last series.  We need a Suzuki or two.  As I've said before, we are just too "North-South."   Hart was fine-these were tough goals to stop.  

If this continues, our GM is going to have some tough choice ahead.  He has some very well paid players who are either past their prime or ineffective.  

35 minutes ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

AV must like what he sees out of Thompson.  I trust AV's judgment.

Well, I hope the judgment pans out. This will be a tough series. We need to bottle up the the Isles' top line. 

The bookies have installed us as a favorite:  -134 at last glimpse.  This suggests it is our series to lose.  Containing Beavillier and Barzal is Job 1.  Our top line needs to produce.  I agree that Raffl is play driver and rugged--he should be moved up.  NAK should be in the top six.  

Thompson's face-off wins don't offset his metrics.  He doesn't score and drags down the rest of the squad's Corsi scores, actual and expected.  So...Grant....Pitlick?  

I think a big part of this will be keeping the puck in the offensive zone and minimizing Barzal.  Some more creativity on our part might help with that. We seem to be very "North-South."  Our PP picked up when G and V began to play a more lateral game and  worked from behind the goal.  

I agree with FD. You'd like to see the bigger guns come to life.  I also liked Ghost's play tonight. He showed some confidence and moved the puck well. 

We lost all three meetings to the team, but this was relatively early in the season.  One loss was in OT:

This will be tough for the O and B.  

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

last meeting:...way back in 1987! I was a senior in high school........

Well, you are a kid to me.  I was a senior in high school when the Flyers last won the Cup.  But it's hard to imagine that 30+  years since these teams have met in the playoffs. I guess that reflects the hard times that had fallen on the Islanders prior to Trotz.  The Isles took over the Flyers' mantle with their four Cups, then fizzled. I might say we are taking on a franchise being reborn. 

Well, this is redemptive. Eight years without a series win was an awful comment on the franchise. AV rates a Martini.  

As I said to SCFlyer a few nights ago, I think we saw how much a Lindblom or a healthy Patrick might have been.  We don't have much offensive creativity.  I also think Hayes has become our de facto First Line Center. 

A win is a win.