Vanflyer

I think I am on a two to one ratio on this topic. 2 (66% of the time), they either met expectation or overachieved. 1 (33% of the time) they underachieved (I am thinking to some of those rangers series in the 80's). Scroll through the list and see where you land: http://www.flyershistory.com/cgi-bin/poffs.cgi

Perennial playoff underachievers? This year was not an underachievement. That SCF against Chicago was not an underachievement. Even the year we faced the Red Wings was not an underachievement. Over-expectations, sure. Underachievement. I can name many more over-achievement Flyer teams since the cup years than under. Over-expectations, sure. Over-managed, sure. Under- goalied, sure!@

1) Just thought I would share this info that I just read from @HockeyyInsiderr on twitter: blah blah blah 2) follow me on Twitter: @EbbonDerr Check my blog daily: www.toughbrotherlylove.squarespace.com blah blah blah >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> So, just to understand YOUR blog, You referenced someone elses blog and interjected zero to what the other blogger had to say. Then after posting the OTHER bloggers load of crap, you closed it with if we want to follow you on twitter or your daily blog???? What a load of crap- all the way around. Why in the world would any of us want that?? >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> The blogger tolerance on this board has exceeded applebees, halibut and kuato.

I get all that, but hey are projecting that those players will replicate their games at the NHL level, despite management off-season moves to replace those "games". That is what is perplexing to me. I get the projection math part, but it assumes allot of things.

Hey Jam- I think we need to qualify top PP- do you mean playing with Giroux? If not, I think you are a bit off. PP Min per game last year: Jagr- 3:15 Voracek- 3:21 Read- 2:25 You are muddying the water a bit. Is it you don't want jagr: a) He takes minutes away from other players B) He is injury prone c) We need his cap hit to buy a stud dman (which I immediately call bs on) d) any / all of the above I will reiterate- We rotated three lines VERY effectively, Jagr was a huge part of that for 3/4 of the year. Outside of doan of parenteau, I doubt you are going to get that from anyone else. Remove Jagr and you need to fill the RW and are assuming either Voracek or Read can elevate to the top line with Giroux. I question this allot. Jake is more or a set-up guy and little on the finish. He might be able to do it, but I am not sure he offers the balance of finish quality that a senior Jagr does, though I think he is the heir apprentice for that position. Read- love his heart and grit, but compared to Voracek or Jagr for what is needed on that top line, it won't happen. So, Jagr at about 2.5-2.8 is fine. I would take Doan at 3.3-3.5, just because I have a man crush on his game. On the whole defense side, I don't think getting a Jagr for 2.5-2.8 has an impact one way or another on the equation for a dman. You have to have a third RW either way. Get a 3rd line guy for 2, so you save 800k max? That is inconsequential when it comes to dmen.

Totally get that. So were are good there (thus the 9M INCLUDES Prongers salary). Best to not speculate and stay with current. So we are at 9M cap space (including bonuses and Pronger). I think everyone knows that Pronger is done. This feels worse than Gagne, worse than Lindros, and much worse than Primeau- based on what I have read. This is the part that is fuzzy for me. So they guesstamate the cap dollars of call-ups to replace injured players? Is that how we sum this up?? I would stick with the 70, but if you want to include the net of the oneways and pronger, fine. 74.5m it is. That is a net of 13.5m for off-season movement. You find me a doctor that can prove a player does not have post-concussion syndrome and I will pay give you the titles to my trailer, pinto, donkey and mule.

@radoran Really? That is all a .6 ppg player is worth these days? How much would you pay for Shane Doan to come play here for a year or two (he is a UFA)?

Hi Jammer- Since JVR is not a RW, I think you have to remove him from the equation (we can have another dialogue about LW minutes escalation on another thread! :-P). I have a few points: 1) Jagr played on average 55 games per season (including world championships), prior to returning to the top league in the world. He played 85 (including playoffs) this year. He openly admitted that his injuries hampered him from doing his normal training- which kept him in somewhat shape to compete with men 2/3 to 1/2 his age. We can all admit he gassed / hampered the last 1/4 of the year and playoffs. 2) Jagr, Voracek and Read all split the RW ice time minutes pretty evenly (some PK / some PP / some both). So the "give ice time mentality" works only a little bit. If I can roll three lines for 18 minutes and have the ALL be effective, I am a happy coach. . 3) I am just really hooked to what a great guy he has turned out to be. Everyone boasts about Talbot, but we can not discount Jagr's presence in the least. In fact, Hartnell credited his turnaround this year to watching Jagr and rooming with him a bit. Jagr helped Hartnell tremendously in the fitness department. I always knew that Jagr was a fitness freak, but not to the extent that he is. A guy that has nothing else left to prove, but wants one more cup and will have an positive impact on my team- in the gym, on the ice, in the room is a guy I want on my team. The cons: He needs to play with Giroux to be totally effective. Maybe you could put Briere with him, but I am not so sure that would work, briere does not have the vision of giroux. That said, if you want Jake to move up, while I would have no problem pairing Couturier with Jagr. In the end, he is not a luxury. We need a #1 / #2 RW. If you think Read and Voracek are those guys fine. For the cost of him, I don't mind giving him one more year. @sarsippius, you don't get future first vote hof'ers and curretn .6 ppg players on the cheap charlie route. A nice home town discount would be 2.5-2.8. Plenty other teams will gladly pay 3.3m for him after seeing the evolved, unselfish jagr. My ONLY caveat is that if Shane Doan wants to come to Philly for a year or two at 3.5m or so, its a done deal and I wish Jagr well.

How does that work?? How can they forecast based on prior year and try to apply it? For every game that Gus / Rinaldo / Wellwood played, another FLYER roster player did not play- and usually due to injury and not benching / pressbox. I would love to see the formula for calculating that ratio. On the RFA side, I sort of get that but still that feels like trying to read tea leaves. How do they know who is going to get a two-way vs. one way??

@JackStraw I had to go look it up using Capgeek.com. I just started to understand it. There appears to be a proration formula that separates the capital hit (ie. salary) and the cap hit. The rules between the two seem to be separate. Since this is the last year of the Thomas contract, the cap hit can not be prorated. However, it appears that there is some sort of rule that allows prorating of the salary- at least according to Capgeek.com http://www.capgeek.com/buyout_calculator.php?player_id=236&buyout_y=2012&buyout_m=06&buyout_d=15 As you can see, Bruins have to absorb the 5m cap hit no matter what. However, he is only owed 3m in salary for this year of his contract and the bruins are allowed to spread that out over the next two years (1m this year and 1m next year = 2/3 of the value of the contract). It is a good thing to keep in mind with Breezy. His current contract is worth 41m. It appears that the proration formula is double the terms left on the contract. Breezy has 8 years left so both capital / salary and cap hit are prorated over that term. However it also looks like there are two years where "balloon" payments are due (or a balloon payment is due at some point). I have long held the contention that Bryzgalov is moveable after three years and this now (at least under current CBA) supports my cause even more. Almost half of his salary will have been paid after year 2013-2014. If he is miserable, the Flyers are miserable with him, OR both, there are two options: 1) Trade him to a basement cap team. They get cap relief and if they need to buyout, the damage is not intrusive on the capital side. 2) Buy him out. There is the stigma that if you screw a player over a long term contract like that, that future players will not want to come to play. But if Breezy sucks for three years while collecting 25m, I doubt that would be a deterrent for ANY player. At the end of the day, under the current CBA, we are not STUCK with Bryz and we have to stop talking like that.

I just looked this up and was a bit shocked. While the capital hit hurts the Flyers (guess Snider will have to get rid of his landing gear cam on his Lear Jet), the numbers are not bad AT all. If the Flyers were to buy him out on 6/15/2012, his buyout over the next 16 years would be 1.7 million. I have no idea how they do the proration and math, but according to Cap Geek buyout calculator, his buyout cap hit would be: 2012-2013: $875K 2013-2014: $-625K (yes, a CREDIT!) 2014-2015: $1.375m 2015-2016: $1.375m 2016-2017: $1.875m 2017-2018: $1.875m 2018-2019: $5.125m (looks like this year and following are baloon type payoffs) 2019-2020: $6.125m 2020-2028: $1.708 (last 8 years) Buying out next year just reduces the prorated buyout of 7m over the 16 years (430k per year). While nobody wants to throw 41m out the window, at the same time some losses in business can be minimized as asset depreciation losses (ie. reduction in taxes, etc.).

Interesting as I did not know that. Though it does not seem that detrimental. I scanned both Roster / Non-Roster players and Walker was the only one I could see that that provision would apply to. With the current cap going to 70m, the Flyers have 9m in cap space (NOT including Prongers 5m if he is LTIR's next year). The essential signings are Voracek and a high end RW to either re-sign Jagr or suitably replace in the forward world and Prongers replacement (should he LTIR) and Carle signing / replacement. Viable UFA candidates forwards: 1) Shane Doan- Hard for me to fathom him leaving Phoenix, but even at age 35, he has everything we would want in a player for short term RW line 1 / 2. The question will be he is 35 and what kind of contract is he going to want. He was paid 4.5m each year of his last contract. 2) PA Parenteau- Late bloomer. Has skills and grit. I would be shocked to see NYI let him go, but I think you could get him for 2.7m-3m. 3) Mikael Samuelsson- A bit long on the tooth (35), but still serviceable and could be have for around 2.5 4) Jagr- Hampered by injuries and ran out of gas in the last 1/4 of the season. But still, if he wants a go and will give a home team discound (say 2.5-2.8), I give it a go, unless Doan want to be become a Flyer, than all bets are off. Viable UFA candidates defencemen: 1) Dennis Wideman- To me he is Carle v 2.0 lite. 4.5 million is his cost. 2) Barret Jackman- I have always liked him. Tough, stay at home. Yet, not that fleet of foot and was exploited in the playoffs. Paired with a Coburn type, could be effective. 3) Bryce Salvador- Long on the tooth, but arguably NJ best dman in the regular and post season. Durable. Current contract salary 2.9. 4) Ryan Suter- I guess if you want to replace Carle, this would be it and an upgrade. I am just not sure its worth the 6 +m he is going to command. Anyway, thats my attempt to hijack a thread. :-)

Hey Howie- I am one to stand pat, for now, on both players. I could see a post christmas type of move. The question on the package is that what team has what we want of value that would take both Bob and JVR (6+m in salary)?

Hey Howie- I am one to stand pat, for now, on both players. I could see a post christmas type of move. The question on the package is that what team has what we want of value that would take both Bob and JVR (6+m in salary)?

I guess what I meant by null and void is that the money no longer hits the books (under 35). I get that the contract remains in effect if for nothing else other than retaining a players rights.

I guess for me, going and getting a veteran backup- who may fair better OR worse than Bobs doesn't make all that much sense (unless you are trying to squeeze pennies and want a 1m type of guy instead of Bobs 1.7m contract). I am in the camp of play out bobs contract instead of dumping him for nothing. They structured his two-way contract so that if they did send him down (which is unlikely, because he would have to clear waivers), his AHL salary is only 75K, which no matter how you slice it would be a mammoth slap in the face. For me personally, Vokoun was the play last summer. Let him have the starters role / platoon. Snider knee jerked, etc. If they were that disheartened by believing that Bobs was not ready as a starter, then they STILL should have signed a Vokoun type to let Bobs get plenty of reps in at the AHL. Of course that would not have played out either because of the idiotic way his two-way contract was structured. Somebody was asleep at the wheel all the way around on the goalie contract spot, and I am not just referring to last year.

@JackStraw I knew there had to be a catch. I thought with the over 35 that if the player retired that the team was on the hook. I had to go look it up. What about buyout? Can they buy him out with Boston still being on the hook for 2/3 of the contract??

I have not done a census as I am 12000 miles away. Yet, I have seen a sub-portion of posters on this board (which had allot of hard core hockey fans, not just Flyers, but Juniors, college, street hockey etc.), say that they are neutral / disinterested. Truthfully, I would be curious what is considered "large market". What qualifies that? We could start with that question in order to proceed with a dialogue. Also, you cited that ratings were down in the US for hockey (as a generality, not SCF or SCP specific). I would like to know more of that because there were Flyers-Penguins first round games that were off the charts (along with some other series).

@- But isn't said contract "null and void" if said player decides to retire?? What is that Russian from Columbus that did it? Seems like that was post 2008? We of course know the Radulov story.

@noodl- The problem with Bobs is I don't think you get much for him. His contract is a bit too steep for a backup of his limited body of work in the NHL and COMPLETELY unrealistic for a send down assignment to the AHL (where he gets paid a measely 75K), not to mention that he is no longer waiver exempt. While I do think that more work is better for bob than less (and truthfully the Flyers did him a complete disservice by structuring his two-way contract the way they did). However, I don't think he is a flop at a back-up at all. I do think he played poorly in February and March. Moreso in February where he was given the opportunity to start more frequently (and Bryz was frankly playing just as bad in February). Some of that February play has to be attributed to injuries and the play in front of both goalies. It did not settle down until Grossman / Kubina were brought in- which subsequently Bryz went on his strong play in March. Truthfully, I look at it this way between Bryz and Bobs. I call it the story of thirds and specifically two-thrids and one-thirds. I am going to splice some numbers here and they are nothing more or less than I have been preaching for some time. The problem here collectively seems to be that people have very short term memories. 1) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season until end of January: So, at this point, Bryz has played nearly two thirds of his minutes on the year and Bobs has played precisely two thirds of his minutes on the year. We can argue lesser teams and all that stuff, but on a pure numbers basis, Bobs was markedly outplaying Bryzgalov. In fact, if you through out March of Bobs rookie season, he was doing EXACTLY what he had done from October to January this past year of what he did from October to February of his rookie year. Bryz at this point was 30th or more in GAA and Save Pctg. The fact that there was a .621 win pctg had really not allot to do with him overall (but he did have a nice streak in late Feb - Dec). 2) Byrz / Bobs from February to the end of the season: This of course illustrates the stellar turnaround by Bryz and the detorioration of Bobs. These two points are what I have been stating for a while. Yet, I have always said that the team was mired (once again) with poor play in February. And by team I mean the goalies all the way on out. This caused me to do a third look at the pie. 3) Bryz / Bobs from beginning of season through end of February: This may be one of the most compelling vantage points of view I can present, yet it is not compelling without looking at the other two pieces. Here are the reasons: 1) It supports my theory that the entire team was playing like crap in February. 2) Bryz's season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his March and April. 3) Bobs season ending numbers are mostly attributed to his February (his season ending numbers are nearly identical to his point in season number by end of Febrauary, which are starkly different than his point in season numbers at the end of January). My closure is this. It seems silly to shop for a vet backup at this point. We still do not know what we have in Bryz. He has shown sporadic good play, but mostly sub-par play overall. We also don't know what we have in Bobs. He has shown sporadic poor play- and consistently towards the end of the season at that, but mostly good play overall. I was thinking that Bobs would have been better served getting more reps / games in the AHL last season. Given the status of the Phantoms, I am not so sure. They turned it around in the last third of the season, but prior to.....sucked (for many reasons including parent club attrition). For me, Bobs stays. I like his personality, work ethic, and natural athletic ability. Blemishes aside, he is a blue collar guy that is willing to work on his imperfections. I give him 1/3 of the games, again and more if Bryz falls early. I feel more confident in teaching a new dog old tricks than and old dog new tricks. Meaning Bobs imperfections are correctable. Bryz (half between the ears and half between the pipes), not so much.

This is a complete misnomer. Bob had a bad February (no worse than Bryz's actually) and was rarely played March / April until Bryz had some foot problems. Up until the end of January, Bob was more than able (2.48 gaa / .917 sv pctg) AND was playing head and shoulders above Bryz's shakey play, despite not getting the call much.

Um, because why?

Is this really true? Because I thought you could be 10% over the cap (currrently 7M) until before the season begins and then you need to be compliant once the season begins. So, that 10% overage essentially covers Prongers salary (and then some), no?

I don't think you do that to a future hall of famer. The LTIR is the only solution to this and if he is deemed fit to play, let him play. Anything along the lines of what you are suggesting is an utter insult to a guy who has had a career like Pronger.

@DinahMoeHumm I never really understood the why your "best player" has to be your captain. I always have felt it should be your best leader. He should have a prominent role on the team (ie. can't be a fourth liner nobody), but I don't believe he needs to be your best player. Jason Smith is a great example of that. That is not to take anything away from Giroux, because I think Giroux has a huge competitive heart and will do whatever it takes to win. Honestly, I prefer more of a vet guy to wear the C. It has to be someone that will garner respect by all and also have paid some dues. 21 - 23 y/o captains do not really bode that. Also, I think it is incredibly challenging for a 23 y/o to have to go up to a 30 - 33 y/o and ride his ass about whatever.